Cryptocurrency Market Analysis [December 5]
Crypto Practical Investment Article December 5
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Q&AWe will introduce a part in the corner.
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【Cryptocurrency Market Analysis】
From last week, the price movements of cryptocurrencies
(one week) are summarized as follows
Summary: Current price (increase/decrease from one week ago)
※From now on, prices will be shown in dollars.
(Cryptocurrencies are largely influenced by overseas information, so dollar notation is easier to express)
※1Dollar =149 Yen
Bitcoin42700 dollars（14％）
Ethereum2200 dollars(10%）
Binance Coin230 dollars(-％）
Ripple0.60 dollars（-1％）
Solana60 dollars(8.6%)
Cardano0.4 dollars（6.7%）
MATIC 0.79 dollars(7%)
Avalanche 22 dollars(10%)
Uniswap6.2 dollars（-%）
Bitcoin has shown a strong surge since last week.
Bitcoin Daily Chart
Considering the current Bitcoin price, the target price is
○40,000 dollars (6,000,000 yen)
○Break above the 200-day moving average
The target price of 40,000 dollars was recently breached.
In Japanese yen, it recently reached 6,28 million yen.
In dollar terms it has not, but due to the yen's depreciation Bitcoin’s yen price is nearing the peak level of the last bubble (around 7.5 million yen).
Therefore, Bitcoin’s price in yen is at quite a high level.
And currently, monetary tightening is ongoing in various countries.
If it were to become a rate cut...
The weekly chart analysis is as follows.
Weekly chart
・Break above the 200-day moving average (orange line)
In weekly charts, each candlestick represents one week of price movement, and we have had seven consecutive bullish weeks.
Also, Bitcoin has broken above the important price line I marked with a red circle.
This large surge is also said to be driven by expectations for BitcoinETF, but what will happen remains to be seen.
Major financial house BlackRock has applied for a BitcoinETF, and BlackRock’s priorETFapplications have shown near-100% approval rates, suggesting strong influence in that area.
If BlackRock is such a major financial firm, there are voices saying the U.S. is trying to capture Bitcoin’s asset value share for national interest as well.
Bitcoin 14.5 million yen forecast
Standard Chartered Bank28th, says the situation is progressing as expected, and BitcoinBTCwillby the end of 2024reach10000 dollars (approximately14,500万円換算）in a four-month forecast.
Geoff Kendrick of the same bank and his team stated that the next driver would be approval of Bitcoin spotETFin the United States, and they predicted that this could happen "quicker than expected."
The team also noted that the next halving of Bitcoin would be another factor driving price increases.
https://www.coindeskjapan.com/210195/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=ifttt
Britain's major Standard Chartered focuses its Bitcoin price forecast on BitcoinETFand halving.
Currently for BitcoinETFstatus, banks that filed and the SEC have reportedly had several discussions.
BitcoinETFapproval by the U.S. is believed to be heavily influenced by politics; what will happen is unclear. The next approval deadline is said to be around January 10.
“Survey on Crypto Asset Investment and Tax Filing,”2023 annual trading saw about7% of investors profiting
2023Investors who traded cryptocurrencies in 2023 mainly used spot trading andPoSstaking assets. Investment amounts were revealed as “50million yen or less”31%, “501million yen or more”27%, showing a clear two-pole trend. About7% of respondents made profits in 2023 and the need for tax filing has increased
According to the survey results, about80%of respondents reported trading in crypto assets in 2023. Of these, the mainstream was “spot trading,” with92%carrying it out. Also, “staking trading” was used by52%of respondents, making it the next most common trading form.
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The Ariel Partners who write this article are an accounting firm, and they provide cryptocurrency profit calculation systems. (I use a different provider, though.)
As of now, profits seem to be from people who invested around 2020 or earlier, it seems.
Also Bitcoin hit the intraday high of 40,000 dollars, but the year-to-date increase is 166%.
Winter market participants who invested then may be included; those who could do so probably invested before 2020. (People tend to hesitate to buy when the market is down.)
From my perspective, Bitcoin and Ethereum have risen significantly in the medium to long term, so it should be easy to take profits at any time (partial profit-taking).
In 2019 there was a time when Ethereum was 5,000 yen, and even Ethereum’s all-time high of 500,000 yen would not have a large impact if taking partial profits at the current 320,000 yen.
Therefore, in that sense, those investing mainly in Bitcoin and Ethereum may have some partial profit-takers.
Regarding staking trades mentioned in the article, there are currencies that pay interest rewards for depositing cryptocurrency.
This is what they actively use.
When asked about how they view cryptocurrency under these conditions, some responses indicated ongoing losses or considerations to buy.
Those with losses may have invested at the peak in 2022. The timing of entry was poor; is waiting for that price to return really the best approach? It might be worth considering what actions are needed to earn profits with investments.
For those considering buying in the future, timing and how much to invest are tricky.
One thing I can say is not to invest all funds in one purchase. If you’re unsure whether the timing is optimal, consider waiting and buying to observe price movements (if it falls further, target a calmer price again, adopt a dollar-cost averaging approach, etc.). It might be worth considering these strategies.
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(This article has been distributed since 2016)
