Translate the following HTML to English, keep HTML formatting, do not use markdown or line breaks, and decode entities before translating: 8月14日の注目点と見通し！
8/14 (Tuesday)
11:00 CNYChina Industrial Production and Retail Sales
15:00 EUR Germany CPI (Consumer Price Index)・HICP・GDP
16:00 HFU Hungary GDP
17:30 GBPEmployment Change・Unemployment Rate
18:00 EUR Euro Area GDP
8/15 (Wednesday)
09:30 AUDWestpac Consumer Confidence Index
※ is a scheduled indicator trade
◎ Today's Focus
1)Turkish currency depreciation and its impact
Since last week, Turkey has been keeping the market in a state of agitation.
Yesterday as well,the market reacted sharply to reports of Pastor Brunson's release, which sparked the Turkey shock.
8/13 Contiguous Currency Strength-Weakness Chart
World stock prices as of 8/13
Today, also, pay attention to statements and policy announcements regarding Turkey.
- Turkey vs US → Trump cannot concede the release of the pastor in order to gain support for the midterm elections.
- Turkey and Europe → Europe holds a high share of Turkish bonds. A default by Turkey could trigger a European financial crisis.
- Turkey and refugees → Turkey is a buffer zone as the entry point of European refugees. Europe is concerned as the Turkey crisis progresses and refugees flow into Europe.
As shown above, given that countries are closely watching Turkey's developments, headlines related to Turkey react strongly.
USD/TRY Daily Chart
2)US-China Trade War and Yuan Weakness
The Chinese yuan has fallen to its weakest level against the dollar in over a year.
The impact of the US-China trade war seems significant.
Due to tariffs, Chinese stock prices (Shanghai Composite) have dropped sharply.
Today announcedChinese indicators, Industrial Production and Retail Sales, are in focus.
The Australian dollar, closely connected to China, is affected and continues to fall.
AUD is at a 1.5-year low against the USD.
Focus on Chinese indicators results and AUD/USD.
USD/JPY Daily Chart
AUD/USD Daily Chart
AUD/USD Intraday Chart
3)UK Employment Statistics
If not for Turkey and US-China trade tensions, UK employment statistics would be under close attention again.
In early August, the UK raised rates on “Super Thursday”.
In the UK, facing Brexit negotiation uncertainties, inflation (CPI) and employment/unemployment rates and GDP are key..
4)Long-term interest rates by country
Markets are leaning risk-off, with capital flowing into government bonds.
However, the popularity is skewed, and the long-term rate differentials are widening.
Turkey, with default concerns, sees yields spike.
Safe-haven currencies the US, Germany, and Japan see yields fall.
Japan-US interest rate differential affects USD/JPY,Germany and Italy・Spain's yield differences affect the euro.
Long-term yields deserve close watch.
Turkey 10-year bond yield chart
US 10-year yield chart
Italy 10-year yield chart
Spain 10-year yield chart
Germany 10-year yield chart
◎ Positions held and today's strategy
Today is a summer holiday period for the US, Europe, and Japan.
With markets being thin, there is a higher chance of larger moves, so risk management should be strong.
I remain Short on EUR/USD in my positions.
If it starts to fall, I will add to positions accordingly.
Depending on Chinese indicators, I may keep an eye on a possible AUD/USD Short.
Continuing from yesterday, I would like to take NZD/USD Short if a good opportunity arises.
I expect USD/JPY to remain heavy on the upside unless risk-off momentum changes.
The following time-frame charts showrange within the blue lines.
USD/JPY Daily Chart
USD/JPY Intraday Chart
◎ Yesterday's notable statements
Turkish Banking Regulation Authority (BDDK)
“Limiting overseas swaps conducted by Turkish banks”
Turkish Presidential Spokesperson
“Turkey's economy is strong; no one should pay attention to speculative news”
“Ministry of Finance, Central Bank, and banking watchdogs will take necessary steps”
Chabushioall (Chabushioar) Turkey Foreign Minister
“We are doing enough to restore relations with the United States”
“America has learned that there is nothing gained from threats”
German Economy Ministry Spokesperson
“Germany desires a stable Turkish economy and is watching carefully”
“No talks about Turkey crisis at the G20”
“Discussing Turkey's exposure by German companies is premature”
Erdogan, President of Turkey
“The Turkish lira will soon settle at a rational level aligned with the real economy”
“Turkey's economic fundamentals are stable and calm”
“Recent US actions are a betrayal to Turkey”
Angela Merkel, German Chancellor
“No one wants Turkey's economic instability”
“Germany wants Turkey's economic prosperity”
“Independence of the Turkish central bank is important”
