Cryptocurrency Market Analysis [November 7]

Practical Investment Articles on Cryptocurrency — November 7

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【Crypto Market Analysis】

The price movements of cryptocurrencies since last week

are summarized as follows over the past week

Display: Current price (change from one week ago)

※From this time, we will use the dollar notation.

（Since most information about cryptocurrencies comes from overseas, dollar notation is easier to express）

※1Dollar =149 Yen

Bitcoin34750 dollars（1％）

Ethereum1866 dollars(4%）

Binance Coin245 dollars(9.1％）

Ripple0.67 dollars（13％）

Solana42 dollars(15%)

Cardano0.34 dollars（17%）

MATIC　0.7 dollars(12%)

Avalanche 12 dollars(12%)

Uniswap4.8 dollars（20%）

Bitcoin remains at the same price level as last week.

Bitcoin Daily Chart

Considering the current price of Bitcoin,

○Target price is $40,000 (about 6,000,000 yen)

○Break above the 200-day moving average

Bitcoin continues to move in small steps and maintains this price level.

The weekly chart analysis is as follows.

Weekly Chart

・Break above the 200-day moving average (orange line)

The same analysis as last week, but when viewed on a weekly basis, the current price area lies along a line that has repeatedly faced resistance since 2021. (Area circled in red)

This line is typically a level that is watched in technical analysis; if we move above this zone, the price could realistically eye the previous bubble high (about 7.5 million yen).

If Bitcoin ETF is approved, how will Wall Street promote ETF?

BitcoinETF(Exchange-Traded Fund) applications are piling up, and Wall Street is increasingly positioned to engage directly with Bitcoin (BTC). Traditional financial institutions are likely to promote BitcoinETFas a risk-off safe-haven investment, butETFenables a different kind of Bitcoin investment from conventional crypto exchanges

Wall Street may characterize Bitcoin with a partial truth or misleading narratives, yet the marketing spend will generate interest. Bitcoin companies will have an exceptional opportunity to capture mass attention and provide a complementary story about Bitcoin as a decentralized, censorship-resistant, unnamed asset.

https://www.coindeskjapan.com/207096/

BlackRock’s BitcoinETFapplication has shifted the atmosphere significantly since they entered. The SEC, which had stubbornly refused approvals,SEC, now sees the world’s largest asset manager entering, and the record of ETF applications being approved is said to be nearly 100%.

If BitcoinETFis approved, you will be able to purchase BitcoinETFin a brokerage account.

・Bitcoin serves as a risk-off asset and plays a role different from fiat currencies.

・There is no need to own the physical asset, significantly solving security concerns.

・Tax treatment differs (cryptocurrencies vs. stocks)

It is likely that once approved in the United States, it could become globally widespread. In Japan, BitcoinETFis not currently available, but with U.S. approval, availability may expand.

Bitcoin is a borderless asset, and unlike gold, it is a digital asset suited to the modern era and may be more readily embraced.

Will Bitcoin be Forced into a Negative by Financial Institutions?

BlackRock is the top shareholder in several large-scale mining operations. With the same organization controlling a large portion of miners, they could strengthen influence over the network's consensus mechanism.

Hays warns that asset managers like BlackRock are effectively “agents of the state.”

Hays argues that Bitcoin is not under any nation’s control, but he notes that if a handful of institutions manage most of it, what would happen if they controlled too much? He raises these questions loudly.

https://blockworks.co/news/institutional-bitcoin-blackrock-otm

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As mentioned above, BitcoinETFapproval is drawing more attention than ever, and if approved, a large influx of funds into the crypto market is expected.

Nevertheless, regarding BitcoinETF, it is certain that national moves are taking place, such as BlackRock joining the fray as a global asset manager.

The referenced article cites Arthur Hayes, a well-regarded analyst in crypto, as offering an especially interesting perspective.

Bitcoin is a currency that does not belong to any country and therefore is not under national management. However, national-level asset managers like BlackRock are increasingly treated as “agents of the state.”

In other words, if the United States government is closely connected with BlackRock, BlackRock’s moves may preemptively guard against Bitcoin coming under the control of other nations.

As noted in the article, BlackRock is the lead shareholder in major Bitcoin mining companies.

Bitcoin relies on miners who operate on the network to approve transfers, sustaining the network.

Gaining a larger share of miners means Bitcoin is more controlled. As Bitcoin becomes globally adopted, more countries and companies may join mining and compete for market share, while wider participation helps prevent monopolies and maintains decentralization.

Given this context, BlackRock entering as a state proxy implies Bitcoin could come under state control.

Of course, prices may rise significantly due to this, but the fundamental idea of Bitcoin is that it is “a currency of the people, not owned by any single country,” and it exists because people who need it participate, which shapes its price today.

So Arthur’s viewpoint in this article is very intriguing.

Also, with current wars and East–West tensions, these factors are being considered, and perhaps this is a factor that leads BlackRock to enter as a U.S. proxy. (This is only my speculation.)

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（This article has been distributed since 2016）