Virtual Currency Market Analysis [October 17]
Practical Cryptocurrency Investment Article October 17
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【Cryptocurrency Market Analysis】
The price changes of cryptocurrencies since last week
are summarized as follows
Summary: current price (change from one week ago)
※From this time, we will use dollar notation.
（Cryptocurrencies are often reported internationally, so dollar notation is easier to express）
※1Dollar =149yen
Bitcoin28400dollars（4％）
Ethereum1570dollars(-%）
Binance Coin210dollars(-％）
Ripple0.49dollars（-％）
Solana24dollars(-57%)
Cardano0.24dollars（-1%）
MATIC 0.52dollars(-1%)
Avalanche 9.2dollars(-6%)
Uniswap3.9dollars（-4%）
Bitcoin had a large rise two weeks ago and briefly surged, but last week there was no significant movement.
Bitcoin Daily Chart
From the current price analysis of Bitcoin
○Target price is $32,000 (level of May last year)
○Break below 200-day moving average.
○Break below the trend line since January 2023
There is price around the upper bound of the short-term range of $29,000 to $25,000.
Yesterday, Bitcoin crossed the 200-day moving average (the orange line on the chart) due to a false report about the ETF, but now the price remains near the line, and it cannot be said that it has clearly broken out above.
Clearly breaking above the 200-day moving average would imply the range is likely to break upwards as well.
The strongest candidate to track is BlackRock’sETFki, with yesterday’s delay in the decision, the next review date is January 15. If that is delayed again, the final decision will be March 15.
The weekly chart analysis is as follows.
Weekly chart
・Break below the 200-day moving average (orange line)
・Trend line also breaks down
On a weekly basis, prices have been inching higher since the end of September.
Prices are currently right below the 200-day moving average.
BitcoinETFSeemingly poised for approval yet unsettled
In Japanese time16日22時過ぎ、U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission（SEC） reportedly approved the Bitcoin spot ETF for the first time, causing Bitcoin to surge from27,700to spike to as high as30,000dollars (about440ten thousand yen)
The final approval dates for highly anticipated financial products such as BlackRock’s Bitcoin spot ETF are expected from early 20242024 to as early as1～3months, but in any case, many experts believe that “approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF is only a matter of time.”
ETFSpecificallyishare’sETFis involved, which is a product of the world’s leading BlackRock.
BlackRock’sETFis considered the strongest candidate, so I was watching it with potential interest, but today there was an apology from Cointelegraph for releasing information without confirming the source.
Cointelegraph is a major cryptocurrency news site, but this incident likely damaged its credibility a bit...
ETFRegarding ETFs, recently the SEC has filed appeals in the Grayscale case and pressures from the U.S. Congress and court rulings are intensifying toward ETF approvals.
However, approving a Bitcoin ETF would likely bring significant fund inflows into Bitcoin, possibly weakening the dollar, so I personally think not only the SEC but also the government is paying attention.
Ethereum could reach $8,000 by the end of 2026 (about 1.2 million yen)
The price of Ethereum (ETH) is currently below $1,600, but by the end of 2026 it could reach $8,000 (about 1.2 million yen, at 1 USD = 150 yen), according to Geoff Kendrick of Standard Chartered Bank.
The main current use cases of the Ethereum blockchain areNFT andDeFi (decentralized finance), but the evolution toward gaming and tokenization should generate “great demand,”
https://www.coindeskjapan.com/204305/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=ifttt
In the previous bubble, Ethereum’sDeFiandNFTdrove large demand and capital inflows. What will be the trigger in the next bubble?
This article cites Standard Chartered Bank of the U.K. as saying that gaming and tokenization will be factors in Ethereum’s price forecasts.
I’m not very knowledgeable about gaming, but regarding tokenization, there are already headlines about tokenizing government bonds (making them crypto) for management, and digital currencies issued by governments (CBDCs) have been tested on Ethereum’s chain by major payment companies like Mastercard.
Therefore, as tokenization increases, more Ethereum-chain powered tokens will emerge, and payment speed could also be a factor with L2 solutions.
Speaking of payment speed, Solanasolana (ticker:SOL) is also attracting attention.
Taylor Swift’s movie enabling cryptocurrency payments (USA)
The concert documentary film “ Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour” will allow cryptocurrency payments for tickets
This film is an independent release by AMC Theatres, and when purchasing tickets at AMC, you can pay through BitPay, a partner of AMC, with BTC, ETH, DOGE, SHIB, XRP, LTC, BCH and other various currencies
In Japan, from October 13, TOHO and many cinemas including Aeon Cinemas released it. Worldwide pre-sales reached one hundred million dollars by last week, and the concert film genre posted record sales.
This might be another test of cryptocurrency payments.
However, I am personally curious about how many people will actually use cryptocurrency payments when a major world film supports them and how the results will turn out.
Payment methods includingDOGE andSHIB are part of the Elon Musk effect, perhaps.
Mercari Bitcoin Trading Service Surpasses 1 Million Users
Mercari’s cryptocurrency trading service has surpassed 1 million users in seven months since launch. Mercari's subsidiary MeruCoin, which provides the service, announced on7themonth16
https://www.neweconomy.jp/posts/345758
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Since the service started in March this year, Mercari app notifications asking “Would you like to convert to Bitcoin?” have become quite frequent recently.
Additionally, the trading fee is 1% round-trip, so buying and selling 1,000,000 yen worth of Bitcoin would incur about 10,000 yen in total fees (5,000 yen each way).
The spread tends to be more noticeable with larger amounts, so for small-to-mid-sized trades in the tens of thousands, the fees may be less of a concern.
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(This article has been distributed since 2016)
