Cryptocurrency Market Analysis 【October 10】
Practical Cryptocurrency Investment Article October 10
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【Cryptocurrency Market Analysis】
The price fluctuations of cryptocurrencies since last week
(one week) are summarized as follows
Summary: Current price (change from a week ago)
※From now on, values are shown in dollars.
（Cryptocurrencies are often sourced from overseas, so dollar notation makes expressions clearer）
※1Dollar =149 Yen
Bitcoin27,772 dollars (-2％)
Ethereum1,616 dollars(-7%）
Binance Coin210 dollars(-4％）
Ripple0.51 dollars（-％）
Solana23 dollars(-5%)
Cardano0.255 dollars（-4%）
MATIC 0.56 dollars(-2%)
Avalanche 10 dollars(2%)
Uniswap4.4 dollars（-8%）
Bitcoin had a large rise a couple of weeks ago and briefly rose, but last week there was not much movement.
Bitcoin Daily Chart
Considering the current Bitcoin price,
○Target price is $32,000 (level of May last year)
○Break below the 200-day moving average
○Break below the trendline since January 2023
The current price is in a short-term range of $29,000 to $25,000.
Last week there wasn’t much movement, so it seems it could not rise above the orange line which is the 200-day moving average.
However, the current price is just under that line.
Weekly chart analysis is as follows.
Weekly Chart
・Break below the 200-day moving average (orange line)
・Trendline also breaks below
From a weekly perspective, price movement last week was almost nonexistent.
And as with the daily chart, price sits just under the 200-day moving average on the weekly chart as well.
Bitcoin, increased accumulation by institutions
According to analysis from on-chain data providerSantiment, wallets holding 10 to 10,000 BTC, commonly referred to as“sharks”and large investors“whales”have continued accumulating BTC, reaching a record high for the year at10,000BTC,1,303万BTCin holdings
This representsBTCof total circulating supply,66%
Nasdaq-listed MicroStrategy continues to buy BTC,BTC, and currently 1BTCis about 4.1 million yen. In 2016 you could buy around 70,000 yen for 1 BTC, but for an average household it is no longer easy to buy 1 BTC (Bitcoin itself can be purchased in units of about 1,000 yen).
SOL expected in payment features
U.S. asset management giantVanEck released a monthly report summarizing the cryptocurrency market in September. One of the most important corporate moves this month wasVisa’s expansion of the Solana-based stablecoin “USDC payments
VISA is expanding stablecoin payments through agreements with merchant acquirers WorldpayWorldpay and Nuvei, and is conducting a joint pilot. The report notes that on Solana, USDC payments0.00025 dollars in fees with settlement to USD in under 0.5 seconds.
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Domestically, SOL is one of the few coins handled andSOL
The coin was propelled by the collapse ofFTXlast year, butFTXcollapsed and its price dropped sharply, causing concerns about its future at the time.
However, recently news aboutSOLhas started to appear.
In August, majorECsiteShopify started accepting SOL payments, andVISAalso partners regarding SOL payments.
As far as I recall,SOLcan handle 50,000 transactions per second,VISApayments handle 25,000 transactions per second, and thus theoreticallyVISAoutperforms SOL.
In terms of costs,SOLapplies to “Solana Pay,launched in 2022, a new payment protocol that processes up to50,000 TPS on the Solana blockchain, enabling extremely low fees and “real-time payments.” Fees are about0.00025 dollars, and they claim it can greatly reduce the usual credit card fees of1.5-2.5%.
And the profit from transaction reductions is described as: the report sets the average transaction fee to$0.005 to$0.001 dollars. Based on the largest market size (TAM), Solana’s revenue potential was estimated from6.66 billion to33 billion dollars (¥993 billion to ¥4,921 billion).
VanEck also notes thatVanEck estimates that if Ethereum revenue reaches around$500 million by 2023, Solana’s total revenue opportunity could be$30 billion to$660 billion (¥4,474 billion to ¥9,').VanEck seems to be assuming.
Whether such vast transactions can be sustained is a major challenge forSOL, but it remains a stock to watch going forward.
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(This article has been distributed since 2016)
