September 15 (Fri): 【Bollinger Bands】 Nikkei 225 VS GOLD (Course: How to discern quality of products - Supplement -)

Good morning ☀

Today I’m adding to the post I made on 9/11 (Monday)“How to discern a product”as a supplement.

A few people have asked

“What about this product?”

“Is what this person on Twitter says correct?”

and other questions.

One of them is this:

I will introduce the method for drawing trend lines that someone was explaining.

Please look at the ?

(*To avoid identification, a chart different from the one explained is used)

What was explained was

“A trend line that is tested many times is effective”

“A trend line that reacts strongly is powerful!”

and similar notions.

I think you’ve heard of them as well.

But do you think this is correct?

I do not think it’s correct at all.

In the chart above, I drew the trend line because it reacted three times, but

how many times must it react to be effective, and on which occurrence will it break?

That’s how I feel.

Because it has reacted many times, isn’t it about to break?

Don’t you think so, too?

In the end, isn’t it a post-hoc theory?

That’s what I think.

So if you’re going to use trend lines,

it’s not that “it’s still effective because it has been effective many times,” but

if you can draw a trend line from two points, the next move might also react near the trend line.

That’s how you should consider it.

The future of the market is known only to the gods.

No one can know it.

Sobuild a scenario, and if the point where the trend line meets the scenario aligns, invest your funds there.

Will the price reverse at the trend line? or not? We don’t know.

That’s all there is to the market!

It isn’t that simple, but

analyze comprehensively and invest in the side with the higher probability.

That’s what investing is about.

Today, then, I’d like to compare with ‘GOLD’.

(*The following is restricted to members.)