Practical Cryptocurrency Investment Article August 22

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【Cryptocurrency Market Analysis】

The price fluctuations of cryptocurrencies since last week

over the past week are summarized as follows

Summary: Current price (change from one week ago)

※From this time, prices are shown in dollars.

(Cryptocurrencies are often reported from overseas, so dollar notation is easier to express)

※1Dollar =139yen

Bitcoin26000dollars (-11%)

Ethereum1661dollars(-10%）

Binance Coin208dollars(-12％）

Ripple0.51dollars（-17％）

Solana21dollars(-15%)

Cardano0.25dollars（-10%）

Polkadot4.4dollars（-11%）

MATIC　0.53dollars(-20%)

Avalanche 10dollars(-17%)

Uniswap4.7dollars（-25%）

Bitcoin dropped sharply last week and fell below the lower end of the short-term range around 30000 dollars.

From the current analysis of Bitcoin’s price

○Target price is 32000 dollars (level of May last year)

○Break below the 200-day moving average

○Break below the trendline since January 2023

From the above analysis of Bitcoin’s chart, both the moving average and the trendline have been broken to the downside, and where the price will stop in the future is worth watching.

Currently it seems prices are holding at the early July low.

Weekly chart analysis is as follows.

Weekly Chart

・Break below the 200-day moving average (orange line)

・Trendline also breaks to the downside

As shown above, the weekly chart shows a similar situation.

If we consider the current price as the lower bound of a ranging market, it feels like the price is near the lower bound of the range since April of this year.

Regarding Bitcoin’s decline

・SpaceX (private space company) selling Bitcoin (proof is unclear)

・Chinese major real estate company filed for bankruptcy

・U.S. Treasury yields rising

is discussed.

In late June, Bitcoin rose sharply on the chart, but has returned to the previous level.

About Bitcoin Halving

The halving is said to occur after March next year

This time, I would like to touch on Bitcoin’s halving a little.

Characteristics of Bitcoin’s halving

・The total number of Bitcoins issued is 21 million, and the issuance is halved every four years; that is halving.

・The next halving is said to occur after March 2024.

・Bitcoin has already mined 19 million coins.

That is the content.

While government currencies (dollar and yen) can be issued without constraint, Bitcoin is programmed with a mechanism from the start, making it an inflation-resistant asset.

The coronavirus pandemic led governments to issue large amounts of fiat currency to spur the economy, and as a result, price inflation has occurred.

This differs from Bitcoin’s program, and one reason why Bitcoin is attracting attention as an asset is precisely that confidence in government-issued currencies is eroding.

Additionally, Bitcoin is said to rise after halving; in all three previous bubbles, Bitcoin rose in price after halving.

First Halving:In 2012, when the first halving occurred in November, Bitcoin price was about11 dollars (about1560 yen). It then multiplied by 100 within a year.
Second Halving:In July 2016, the 420 millionth block was mined, triggering the second halving. Bitcoin’s price moved between roughly7 thousand to 9 thousand dollars over a few months, and by December 2017 it reached about20 thousand dollars (about284万円)
Third Halving:The third halving occurred in May 2020, and it also caused a sharp price rise. At halving, Bitcoin traded around9 thousand dollars (about128万円), but by year-end it rose to about30 thousand dollars (about425万円).

As described above, every halving has driven a large price increase and has pulled up not only Bitcoin but the overall cryptocurrency market.

Last year, Bitcoin halving is anticipated, and in addition, events such as BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF filings and the U.S. presidential election are upcoming and attracting attention.

References

https://www.businessinsider.jp/post-274214

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(This article has been distributed since 2016)

Crypto Market Analysis [August 22]