Virtual currency market analysis [June 7]
Cryptocurrency Practical Investment Article June 6
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【Cryptocurrency Market Analysis】
The price fluctuations of cryptocurrencies since last week
(one week) are summarized as follows
Summary: current price (change from one week ago)
※From this time, we will use the dollar notation. (Since much information about cryptocurrencies comes from overseas, dollar notation is easier to express)
※1Dollar = 134 yen
Bitcoin26360dollars (-4.8％）
Ethereum1860dollars(2.2%）
Binance Coin281dollars(-10％）
Ripple0.52dollars（-％）
Solana20dollars(-5%)
Cardano0.35dollars（-7%）
Polkadot5.1dollars（-6%）
Avalanche 14.3dollars(-1%)
Uniswap4.8dollars（-6%）
Bitcoin has been gradually falling since last week and is currently around 26,000 dollars.
Bitcoin Daily Chart
From the current examination,
○Target price is 32,000 dollars (level of May last year)
○200-day moving average is breaking upward
and the uptrend is continuing
Recently on the 6th, the U.S. SEC sued the world's largest exchange Binance CEOCEO, causing the market to plunge.
However, it subsequently rebounded sharply.
The reason for the rebound is unknown.
The rebound point is from the lower end of a range bound by a red horizontal line, showing a clean bounce.
The weekly chart analysis is as follows.
Weekly chart
・200-day moving average (orange line) has broken upward and is rising
The chart’s 200-day moving average (orange) has temporarily fallen below and rebounded.
The 200-day moving average is an important line even in cryptocurrency charts, so this is a price range where Bitcoin holds its ground.
SEC is suing the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange CEO, CZ.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on the 5th announced that it has sued major crypto asset exchange Binance and its founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ).
SECaccused Binance of offering unregistered securities and a total of13 charges. The lawsuit also includes the U.S. arm “BinanceUS.” Meanwhile, Binance argued that the allegations are serious but should not be subject to regulatory enforcement, and they intend to vigorously defend the platform, expressing regret that the SEC chose to sue despite Binance's efforts.
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Here is the latest news where the cryptocurrency market has fallen sharply.
SECisCZbeing sued, but shortly after, Coinbase, the largest U.S. exchange, is being sued in the same way.
However, for some reason, as soon as Coinbase is sued, the price oddly rises.w
SEChas been criticized by some in the U.S. Congress for pursuing lawsuits without providing proper regulation from the start.
Perhaps this could cause more crypto exchanges to move from the U.S. to other countries.
Regarding the timing of the U.S. presidential election, some candidates, such as Robert Kennedy Jr., have stated support for Bitcoin, suggesting politics may play a significant role.
SECis also in litigation with Ripple’s XRP, and the outcome is expected soon.
Arthur Hayes' View on Bitcoin
Arthur Hayes, former BitMEX CEO, shares his views including the current economic situation.
https://twitter.com/CocostaToru/status/1664450326756495361
Bitcoin is unlikely to fall back to20 thousand dollars again
The U.S. is resuming money printing
and the timing points to summer
Arthur Hayes says that “the monetary system with fiat currency leads to the same problems in any country.
High debt
Aging population
Banks invest in government bonds
As inflation is kept in check, interest rates rise.
Bond prices held by banks are damaged, leading to bank failures
The heads of central banks all come from the same elite universities and study the same economic theories. Therefore, central banks’ opinions tend to align.
Whatever the U.S. Federal Reserve does, all other central banks will eventually follow
The U.S. central bank will6 temporarily halt rate hikes in six months
7 resume in seven months
8 months, the policy rate will reach about6%.
Bank depositors will seek higher yieldsMMFand move funds.
The market will push up the U.S. dollar.
FRBwill print more cash and inject liquidity into the market
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Arthur’s article is very long, but this summarizes it.
In short, the reason Bitcoin’s price will rise in the near term is that the fiat currency’s value is decreasing.
When there is bad economic news, both stocks and cryptocurrencies tend to fall initially, but I personally think cryptocurrencies may grow in the mid-to-long term due to these factors (stocks are uncertain).
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（This article has been distributed since 2016）
