Cryptocurrency Market Analysis [May 30]
Practical Investment Article on Cryptocurrency, May 30
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【Cryptocurrency Market Analysis】
The price movement (one week) of cryptocurrencies since last week
is summarized as follows
Display: Current price (change from one week ago)
※From this time, we will use USD notation. (Cryptocurrencies have a lot of information from overseas, so USD notation is easier to express)
※1Dollar = 134 yen
Bitcoin27,700dollars (1.5%)
Ethereum1,900dollars(2.5%）
Binance Coin312dollars(-％）
Ripple0.52dollars（12％）
Solana21dollars(5.6%)
Cardano0.37dollars（-%）
Polkadot5.4dollars（-%）
Avalanche 15dollars(-%)
Uniswap5.1dollars（-%）
Bitcoin had been in a short-term downtrend since the week before last, but recently rebounded.
Bitcoin daily chart
From the current perspective
○Target price is 32,000 dollars (the level of May last year)
○Breaking above the 200-day moving average
Thus, the uptrend is continuing
Prices are returning to the mid-point along the horizontal lines drawn on the chart.
Weekly chart analysis is as follows.
Weekly chart
・Breaking above the 200-day moving average (orange line) and rising
In the chart, prices are rebounding on the orange 200-day moving average and have not yet fallen below it.
There is no significant price movement.
From the week before last1week-on-week, Ripple（XRP）has surged by 12%.
Ripple is in a dispute with the U.S.SECover securities issues, and a settlement is expected soon.
In Ripple-related news I researched, Ripple ranked first in a cryptocurrency ranking that indicates potential for over 1,000x price increase in the future.
https://prtimes.jp/main/html/rd/p/000000479.000093294.html
Looking at the contents, there is a possibility of victory in court against theSEC. It discusses partnerships with many banks on a blockchain network, and that value could rise.
When it comes to Ripple, it has long been known that Japanese people hold it, but it is surprising that even in the current situation there are people who continue to hold Ripple with such an imagew
Surely in the past,SBIChairman Nishio tweeted that Ripple would reach 1,000 yen, and it became a topic...
Ripple has the potential to surge, but even in cryptocurrency rankings in surveys, the currencies listed seem somewhat outdated...
Reasons why major emerging countries are focusing on cryptocurrency
In Pakistan, cryptocurrency is actively used. Citizens fear the depreciation of fiat currency and are converting their salaries into stablecoins. The Pakistani rupee has fallen against the U.S. dollar by more than20%since the beginning of the year, and by1year it has fallen by30%or more.
On the other hand,Bitcoin priced in Pakistani rupeesBTC has risen about103% since the beginning of the year (in USD, about63%). Chainalysis, a blockchain analysis company, in its 2022 report, positioned Pakistan at No. 6 in terms of crypto asset adoption, which is not a coincidence.
My “Focus on Adoption” list unexpectedly includes Japan. With a population of over 124 million, Japan ranks 11th globally, and nominal GDP is third in the world. Here is a chart sharing the growth rate of spot trading on crypto exchanges.1Japan ranks No. 1, and the average daily trading volume is second in the world (the United States is first), with the growth rate leading by a large margin (since the beginning of the year about55%). Japan’s inflation rate is low, and fiat currencies are relatively stable, so these movements may be largely speculative. Alternatively, it might be a sign that investors are preparing for rising inflation and currency instability.
https://www.coindeskjapan.com/186666/
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As the value of one’s own currency declines and the goods one can buy become fewer, one cannot simply stand by. In emerging countries, Bitcoin holdings are increasing as a hedge against the depreciation of their own currencies. Another factor is smartphones. In emerging countries, some people cannot have bank accounts, but they do have smartphones, so they can purchase cryptocurrency.
I think these factors may also be at play.
Regarding Japan, the explanation is that there is little inflation, but instead of rising prices immediately, burdens such as consumption tax and social security costs are increasing. Even so, compared with 15 years ago, prices have risen quite a bit and I feel inflation is occurring, and wages between generations have not risen much.
The Possibility of Bitcoin at 45,000 USD (6.5 million yen) — JP MorganJPMorgan
Major financial institutionJPMorgan’s analysts, in a latest market forecast memo for clients, suggested that cryptocurrency Bitcoin could reach630万円（45,000ドル）. Due to Bitcoin’s capped supply of21,000,000BTC, some investors include it in portfolios as a hedge against risk as a form of alternative investment.
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These factors, after all, stem from the earlier news about the depreciation of one’s own currency.
Amid the U.S. banking crisis, debt issuance, and next year’s Bitcoin halving, Bitcoin—an asset that does not depreciate in value and does not belong to any country—has drawn attention.
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（This article has been distributed since 2016）
