May 30 (Tue): Nikkei 225 vs. Dow Jones Industrial Average (Course: "Crash Crash" is it persistent?)

Good morning☀

As one opinion from newsletter subscribers

“Isn’t saying that the crash is coming too often? In reality, prices are reaching new highs.”

was received.

Well, it does indicate the possibility of a crash, but at this stage there is no crash and prices are continuing to new highs, with no sign of a crash?

However, since there is a possibility of a crash, we cannot refrain from presenting a crash scenario.

? Russell 2000 【Monthly】 however

If it moves in a yellow zigzag…

In February 2023 it retraced to MA and formed a bearish candle,

from this situation it would not be strange for a large bearish candle to appear and for a rapid drop to occur.

If there is a possibility, it is natural to consider it as a scenario.

but

‘In the market, the future price movement cannot be known in advance by anyone; it is a world known only to God’

therefore we are not saying that a crash will happen there with certainty,

it isimportant to consider it as a scenario.

The Corona Shock is probably fresh in everyone’s memory as well.

At that time I was mainly explaining Pound-Dollar as a salon instructor.

I would like to share a little about this time.

? This is the chart of the Pound-Dollar at that time.

（This is the discussion around the area of the yellow vertical line.）

Even during the upward-trending wave, I hinted at a crash in the Pound-Dollar (basis of the reasoning is omitted here), but the salon master was recommending long on the Pound, so most people did not pay attention to my crash hint and had a bullish attitude, I think?

However…Actually, the crash did occur, right?

While I, who was watching for a crash, did not incur losses,

some of the salon members suffered fatal losses?

After the Corona Shock, a huge number of emails came to me rather than to the salon master?

I spent an entire day replying to emails…

and even then I couldn’t keep up with all the replies?

The content of the emails was

“Why did you know there would be a crash?”

was the predominant theme.

I didn’t know that.

If I knew, I would have sold everything and made a fortune?

Only“the possibility of a crash was considered from a waveform perspective”, that was all.

Those who thought there was a crash possibility and those who didn’t

had completely different results because of that.

I believe that’s all there is to it.

Having the possibility of a crash does not mean you cannot long.

You just need to take countermeasures.?

① Set a tighter protective stop than usual.

② Trade smaller lot sizes than usual.

③ Enter at points with a higher likelihood of long moves than usual.

④ Place a hedge on the shorts.

There are many things you can do.

It isn’t that I am constantly warning about crashes,

if a waveform shows a possibility of a crash, it is natural to consider itas such.

It is absolutely better to be overly cautious than not cautious enough.

It can be extreme.

Let’s think of everything that could be considered.

By the way…

“If you had emphasized the crash more, I wouldn’t have lost so much.”

“I lost tens of millions in Pounds and even my family suffered. I will…”

“Because of the salon master… ”

“Pay back the losses by taking responsibility for the Pound long!”

（?Eh? Why? I was explaining from a Pound short perspective?）

I also received emails like this…?

Well… how should I put it…

Investing is personal responsibility.

I understand that, but perhaps they just wanted to vent.

I remember being troubled by how to reply?

（※Below, for members only.）