What are the advantageous times to buy USD/JPY? 13 years of research, Part 3
Hello!
This is Satori, researching FX.
This time we will deliver “What are the profitable time zones for buying USD/JPY? 13 years of research, part 3.”
Last time, we used “RSI Bands EA for reversal trading, 8-currency set” to optimize buying for DailyTrade over 13 years.
This time, let’s look at the remaining balance curves and MT4 reports for the top profits by entry time.
This time, let’s look at the remaining balance curves and MT4 reports for the top profits by entry time.
As shown in the figure above, around 3 PM and around 6 AM are indicated by data as advantageous times to enter USD/JPY trades.
The 1,000,000 yen starting balance balance curve for entries around 3 PM over 13 years is shown below.
Among the 13 years, the balance declined during 2010–2011 when USD/JPY fluctuated in the 70–80 yen range.
As volatility (range) becomes smaller, the opportunity for profit decreases.
In 2018, the balance trend is rising, so it aligns with the recent market.
However, the periods of decline are concerning, so we will test improvements by weekday selection and the 50-day selection related to exporters’ settlements later.
Alternatively, optimization may be more appropriate in the latter period.
Because using data from 2018 with 1 USD in the 70–80 yen range for optimization may reduce performance.
By the way, the trading rules are: take profit and stop loss both at 50 pips, with Bollinger Band sigma around 3 for take profit and stop loss.
Also, if you add a 6 pips unrealized gain, you raise the stop to the level of 1-pip profit for buying.
The figure below is the MT4 report.
The win rate is 80%.
Without the stop-raise feature, the win rate would likely drop, but I think it would still be around 55%–60%.
Since it is a two-way choice between selling and buying and there is a spread, the basic FX win rate is about 45%, but by considering the time zone and a simple trend, it becomes about 55%–60%, and once a steady gain is achieved, raising the stop can push the win rate to around 80%.
In the next part, “What are the advantageous times to buy USD/JPY? 13 years of research, Part 4,” we will look at the balance curve and win rate when entering at 6 AM.
The balance curve over 13 years will differ from entering at 3 PM.
The balance curve over 13 years will differ from entering at 3 PM.
Thank you very much for reading up to today.
Please take care and stay well.
Technical Trade Blog Ranking
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Publisher: Art Brain Products
FX Technical Strategy Researcher
Satori Kokoro
Email: info(at)abproducts.biz
Blog: Fibonacci Retracement FX Research:http://fxmt4indicator.blog.jp/
Indicators & Tools & EA:http://fxmt4indicator.abproducts.biz/wp/
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