Dollar/Yen current analysis: "Entering a major adjustment" May 1, 2018 15:00
May 1, 2018, after 15:00, USD/JPY, monthly chart
Looking at the monthly chart, there is no change in the current phase: a correction for the rally from 2012 to 2015, and a correction for the rally in the second half of 2016.
Looking back over roughly the past year, April was a relatively large bullish candlestick.
The Bollinger Bands are nearly horizontal and have contracted quite a bit.
From the wave structure starting from the 2015 high, it seems we have entered the 4th wave of a pennant 5-wave pattern.
Both MACD and Bollinger Bands show no clear directional bias, but selling pressure is slightly dominant.
May 1, 2018, after 15:00, USD/JPY, weekly chart
On the weekly chart, the 12-week EMA acted as resistance for three weeks, but it broke last week and rose toward the vicinity of the 26-week EMA. Also, the MACD golden cross has been confirmed.
Although the EMAs themselves are still in a downtrend, the current rate is above them, and buying is favored.
May 1, 2018, after 15:00, USD/JPY, daily chart
On the daily chart, the uptrend continues.
It has retraced to the 50% level of the light blue Fibonacci retracement. It has been five days since exceeding 50%, and it is uncertain whether a pullback is looming or whether it will extend beyond 110 yen; both possibilities exist.
It has formed a long upward swing of more than a month, but in terms of wave structure, it is the 4th wave in a downward-moving sequence. In Elliott Wave theory, the 2nd and 4th waves do not overlap. If it retraces to 61.8% of the Fibonacci, the 3rd wave was long, so it would not reach the 2nd wave, and the direction would continue to be down.
Currently, the question is whether it can break above 109.5.
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This article is an excerpt from the blog "When you watch and freely adjust, the market becomes a lucky charmWhen you watch and freely adjust, the market becomes a lucky charm.
