February 21 (Tuesday): Nikkei 225 (Free viewing item: Why from Bollinger Bands to Elliott Wave?)

Good morning☀

From the questions answered today?

“Why did you switch from a profitable Bollinger Band method to the Elliott Wave?”

Even though I started to make money with Bollinger Bands!

Not like now,

I never ended the year with zero losses!

Things were always a mix of pluses and minuses,

a back-and-forth of gains and losses?

I traded to ride the expansion, so the annual balance would end in the positive every year, but I was constantly wondering how I could reduce more losses?

So...

I remembered the Elliott Wave, which I had read in a book long ago and found it incomprehensible.

(By the way, there are mistakes in the Elliott Wave described here as well?)

Because of my personality, when someone says it’s “difficult” or “impossible,” I want to do it even more, so I became even more resolute to study and understand Elliott Wave!

※ I also like golf, even though the popular belief is that the muscles-back iron is difficult (lol)

And as I read more about Elliott Wave, I began to understand it to some extent.

What I used to not understand at all,

I felt an immense joy when I felt I understood it a little?

(※ Now I realize that what I thought I understood back then was still immature in many ways.)

Now, to answer the question...

Bollinger Bands are formed after the rate settles and the band shape is formed.

From that band shape, you try to narrow price movement using the characteristics of the band, but

① they repaint.

② not much future forecast is possible.

These are the drawbacks, generally for indicators calculated after the rate is settled, right?

So what about Elliott Wave?

① it never repaints.

② it can predict farther into the future than Bollinger Bands.

There are many other advantages, but these were the two things I thought at the time.

① is obvious since Elliott Wave is not an indicator, so I'll skip that, but

② about the future.

For example, suppose the current point is at the yellow vertical line.?

With Bollinger Bands

・During Expansion.

・Is it almost time for a Boege?

You might think,

With Elliott Wave

・There is a possibility of a third impulse wave, so it could extend to the fifth wave thereafter.

・After completion, a zigzag down (waves A-B-C) may follow.

(? It’s not that simple, but it’s one of dozens of possibilities.)

In this way, you can explore possible future waveforms.

Therefore, you can think about even more distant future waveforms.

Did you get a sense of the Elliott Wave's advantages?

But wait✋✋✋

Just because that’s the case doesn’t mean

“I’ll study Elliott Wave too!”is something you should definitely do?

After I started making money with Bollinger Bands, I gradually progressed with studying Elliott Wave.

Using Bollinger Band analysis, I also analyzed with Elliott Wave and traded.

Looking back, there’s a possibility I counted Elliott Wave moves in a way that aligned with Bollinger Band direction, right?

Well, that’s probably how it starts, haha.

More than seven or eight years have passed since then, and now I understand many things, but I still can’t count perfectly in many cases.

Therefore, with Elliott Wave, there is still a lot I can’t say I can teach you...

It’s such a difficult field.

That’s why, like in “The Illustrated Bollinger Bands,”

I don’t intend to write about Elliott Wave, and I don’t think I have the right to.

By the way...

In salons and communities,

“I’ll teach Elliott Wave”

and those who claim to teach correct Elliott Wave were all nonexistent.

I’ve seen dozens of tens of thousands of yen worth of Elliott Wave explanations that others bought, but they were really full of nonsense.

There might be people interested in Elliott Wave, but

First of all,“after you’ve kept making money continuously!”is not late at all.

I think it will take at least about five years for Elliott Wave to make you money by itself.

So first it’s fine to start with Bollinger Bands or other technicals.

After you consistently earn, it would be better for your mental and financial well-being to study more deeply, don’t you think?

(※ The following environment recognition is limited to members.)