Cryptocurrency Market Analysis [February 14]
Virtual Currency Practical Investment Article February 14
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【Cryptocurrency Market Analysis】
The price fluctuation of cryptocurrencies from last week (one week)
is summarized below as
Display: current price (change from one week ago)
Bitcoin286yen (-5％）
Ethereum200000yen(-6%）
Binance Coin39000yen(-10％）
Ripple49yen（-6％）
Solana2900yen(-6%)
Cardano48yen（-6%）
Polkadot800yen（-6%）
Avalanche 2400yen(-10%)
Uniswap830yen（-5%）
Bitcoin has fallen from last week’s price, and there has been news related to major overseas exchange Binance recently, which is thought to have contributed to the decline.
Bitcoin daily chart (USD)
Last year11monthFTXcollapse news led to a sharp drop in Bitcoin’s price,
then in early January there were seven consecutive bullish days, breaking above the short-term range and recovering to $20,000. (It is said to be due to the U.S. CPI calming down)
Current assessment
○Target price is $25,000
○Above the 200-day moving average
as of now.
It seems difficult for prices to rise to that level (to break above).
Weekly chart analysis is as follows.
Weekly chart
• At the end of 2017, it fell below the previous peak price for the first time this year.
• It remains below the 200-day moving average (orange line)
.
Red candlesticks line up, resulting in two consecutive weeks of decline. This can be seen as a price correction after a rapid rise.
In tandem with this, regulatory news has increased, and the U.S.SECappears to be actively taking action.
On a side note, however,SEChas not approved a Bitcoin ETF on the grounds that Bitcoin’s market cap has grown and it has become a relatively safe asset for medium- to long-term investment. I wonder what the reason is (deliberate). If approved, I feel it could have a trend-reversal impact.
New York State Department of Financial Services, Explanation of why it ordered the stop of issuance for the stablecoin “BUSD”
On the 13th, the New York State Department of Financial Services (NYDFS) announced caution to consumers regarding Paxos’ suspension of the issuance of the U.S. dollar stablecoin “BinanceUSD（BUSD）.
NYDFSclaims that Paxos was authorized to issueETHon the Ethereum blockchain, whileBUSDissued on other chains（Binance-peg BUSD）
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The latest big topic is this.
※BUSD is a stablecoin pegged to the price of the fiat currency dollar. It is mainly traded on the world’s largest exchange, Binance.
In this caseSECis not the one taking action; the government of New York is ordering the stop of issuance forBUSD.
BUSDis issued by Paxos, but it is issued on the Ethereum chain, and Binance had been encouraging trading by issuing and locking an equal amount ofBUSDon other chains (BSC, TRC, etc.) besides Ethereum.
Ethereum chain has high fees, so honestly usability isn’t great right now. Therefore, I think Binance issuing BUSD on other chains helped prevent over-concentration on Ethereum chain and contributed to moderating Ethereum fees.
With this stoppage, the market cap ofBUSDitself is said to decline.BUSDmay be converted to fiat currency and redeemed.?
And on Binance, the exchange's trading currencyBNBhas fallen nearly 10% due to this impact.
As for Binance itself, trading on Binance favored usingBUSDtrading pairs to promoteBUSDtrading.
This kind of regulation is expected to be resolved through compromise. (BUSDhas been issued for a long time, so why now...)
Arthur Hayes,2023: Betting on a surge in the first half of the year, purchasing Bitcoin
Bitcoin, Ethereum, and emerging altcoins are also "buys," with risk-averse investors speaking this way.
OnFebruary8, an article was published in which Arthur Hayes, a veteran of the industry, revealed his current cryptocurrency investment plan.
“2023year later this year, due to concerns about this potential outcome, I have placed spare funds in money market funds and short-term U.S. Treasury securities
He explains that he missed the monster rally seen from the lows near $16,000 when FTX collapsed, and that Bitcoin then rose nearly 50% from those lows.
In a strong uptrend, the core assets of cryptocurrencies rise. That means Bitcoin and Ethereum. The rise of these assets eventually slows, and prices taper off slightly,” Hayes explains this market cycle.
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Until a little while ago, Arthur was cautious about investing in risk assets like Bitcoin due to government rate-tightening policies, but now he believes that rising debt (raising the debt ceiling) will drive fiat currency inflation and increase the value of risk assets like Bitcoin.
Arthur Hayes, founder of the former BitMEX exchange, has recently made significant profits with the cryptocurrency calledArbitrumchain’sGLP, and many investors are paying attention to his past analyses.
There is an increasing impression among experts that 2023 marks a turning point for the cryptocurrency market.
The final sentence suggests that when the cryptocurrency market enters a bull phase, first Bitcoin and Ethereum with high market caps rise, followed by other coins with lower market caps. This has happened many times, so it is considered a common view of the rising cycle.
It is ironic that assets are drawn to cryptocurrencies due to a decline in government credibility, but understanding which assets will gain value is important for protecting wealth in the future.
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(This article has been distributed since 2016)
