January 31 (Tue): Nikkei 225 (Free viewing item: Coin toss)

Good morning☀

I’d like to talk about how Lot was decided as mentioned the other day.

But… before that!!!

Somefamous experiment conducted by an American graduate studentthat I’m thinking of discussing.

For those who already know, sorry?

I’d appreciate it if you could stay with me a little longer?

We gave 1 million dollars to 50 graduate students at a certain American university.

(Note: currency units could be $ or yen and are mixed, so the unit is omitted.

Please read it in yen.)

We flipped a coin

・ If heads, funds double,

・ If tails, the money is confiscated

and asked them to play a game.

The risk-reward is 1:1, right?

There is also a discussion of risk-reward here, so please check it as well.

If you don’t understand it well,

you might end up making a very embarrassing (*ノωノ) experience, so be careful.
https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/finance/navi/articles/43963

Back to the story…

You may freely set the amount you bet per round.

The probability of heads or tails is 1/2, with no bias.

The 30-minute time limit is to keep tossing.

But if you go bankrupt, it’s over.

After the time limit ends, how many people do you think were able to grow their funds from the original 1 million?

The result was2 peoplewere able to grow it (the original amount plus a few people).

Many went bankrupt as well.

What distinguished the people who grew it from those who went bankrupt?

・The method used was the same (just flipping a coin)

・Understanding of the method was the same (just flipping a coin)

Yet the results were different… quite mysterious, isn’t it.

Then, what did the 50 people come up with on their own?

Yes“Amount to bet”.

EarlierI talked about the “Three M of the Market”.

https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/finance/navi/articles/38073

There,

Mental (60%)

Money-Management (30%)

Method (10%)

I talked about this.

Even if the Method is the same, some people make money and some go bankrupt.

In other wordsInvestment is more about Money-Management than the Method!

“No matter what I do, I can’t make money. Please help.”

I received such inquiries endlessly.

When you talk to them, usually

“What method do you trade with?”

almost all of them ask.

By that time, they’ve already decided they can’t make money, haven’t they?

Common trait of those who can’t make money is“trading with a method-first mindset”.

Proscan estimate at mostMethod (10%)

AmateursusuallyMethod (100%)

Pros can still earn by deciding Entry direction by rolling the dice from the current price, even if they use it now.

I have done such training countless times.

Such training (not that grandiose, but“Play with charts”) I practiced.

“If you want to trade well, play with charts!”

https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/finance/navi/articles/43466

It’s getting long, so I’ll stop here for now and move on to chart analysis.

To be continued another day…

（Note: Below, environment recognition is limited to members only.）