January 27 (Fri): Nikkei 225 (Free viewing item: "Sell when it rises, buy when it falls")

Good morning☀

Everyone,「Something you absolutely want」exists,

① Type that buys it without caring about the price

② Type that puts it on the watchlist and buys when it gets cheaper

which one is it?

Most people are probably③

I guess, but when the market moves, aren’t there more of type ①?

As the rate rises rapidly, you go long.

In a good light, it’s a trend-following strategy.

In a bad light, it’s jumping on the bandwagon.

Regarding the probability of jumping on successfully, previouslywe explained using the Bandwagon effectand Bayes' theoremso please refer to this?

To put it simply, in my view the probability that jumping on yields a profit is

'less than 10%'

Therefore I believe there is no merit in jumping on.

I mainly shop online, but unless it’s urgent,

② the type that puts it on the watchlist and buys when it gets cheaper

so,

I also buy when the market gets cheaper.

What I often say

'Sell when it goes up, buy when it goes down'

That is what I mean.

(Note: The following environmental awareness is limited to members only.)