Cryptocurrency Market Analysis【January 24】

Virtual currency practical investment article January 24

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【Cryptocurrency Market Analysis】

The price fluctuations of cryptocurrencies since last week

over the past week are summarized as follows

Display: current price (change from one week ago)

Bitcoin297million yen (10%)

Ethereum210000yen(4%）

Binance Coin41000yen(7％）

Ripple54yen（10％）

Solana3100yen(5%)

Cardano48yen（8%）

Polkadot840yen（12%）

Avalanche 2300yen(10%)

Uniswap862yen（2.7%）

※ characteristics of last year’s price movements

（From June 2022, Bitcoin moved within a range market (the area enclosed by red horizontal lines). The lower bound of the range (the lower red line) dropped below the price that was the year’s lowest, prompted by FTX collapse news.FTX)

Subsequently, in early January, seven consecutive bullish days occurred, breaking above the short-term range high and recovering to around $20,000. (The factor cited is that the US CPI cooled.)

Bitcoin daily chart (USD)

Continuing from the previous week, Bitcoin surged, reaching $23,000 and approaching 3,000,000 yen in Japanese currency.

The orange line on the chart, the 200-day moving average, has significantly broken upward.

A red horizontal line marks the chart’s range upper and lower bounds; the future target price looks to be around $25,000.

The weekly chart analysis is as follows.

Weekly chart

• The price fell below the 2017-end bubble peak for the first time this year.

• It has remained below the 200-day moving average (orange line)

as of now.

In the weekly chart, the previous range has been returned to, but the 200-day moving average (orange line) has not yet broken above.

Nevertheless, the price is getting quite close to the 200-day moving average.

If you look at the past year’s downtrend on the weekly chart, the red horizontal line marks a range roughly from $16,000 to $26,000.

Do not deposit money into suspicious cryptocurrency sites.

SNS— from someone you met online who urged you to invest in cryptocurrency management, and while profits were made, when you tried to withdraw a large amount from the system, you could not withdraw.

■Investment proposals from strangers are highly likely to be scams.

■Check whether the system is secure (e.g., featured on major news sites).

■Understand that high interest may indicate the possibility of a ponzi scheme.

IBM executive: “CBDCs are the money of the future”

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IBMExecutiveNagarajansaid thatCBDCis the money of the future, but issuers should consider a hybrid model. He stated that the ability to use programmable money via smart contracts would reduce friction and help large enterprises raise transparency and real-time payment capabilities..

https://www.coindesk.com/business/2023/01/17/cbdcs-are-the-future-of-money-ibm-exec-says/

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CBDCis digital fiat currency (dollar, yen, etc.). Currently, to monitor the flow of money, China has taken the lead in exploring CBDC, and subsequently other countries seem to be following.

Also, when we say smart contracts,CBDCis to be put on a smart contract platform. This is a very positive view for digital assets like cryptocurrencies.

Bank of America: “Revolutionizing the global financial system”

———

Currently,114central banks are exploring issuing CBDCs, which is said to account for approximately 95% of global GDP. Existing finance suffers from huge inefficiencies in cross-border settlements, and CBDCs are concluded to be the solution. “CBDCs and stablecoins, along with distributed ledger and digital currencies, represent the natural evolution of today’s currency and settlement systems.”

https://decrypt.co/119739/cbdc-revolution-inevitable-financial-systems-stablecoins

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As described above, Bank of America also has a similar branch to IBM.IBMand Bank of America both are expected to increasingly handle cryptocurrency in banks.

Factors include

・Significant reduction in remittance costs

・Major benefits for those without bank accounts (especially in developing countries, trading via smartphones)

・Increased efficiency of operations

・The government is considering coexistence of stablecoins (cryptocurrencies pegged to the dollar, etc.) andCBDC.

Norway government adopts L2 Arbitrum

———

Norway’s project to track ownership of unlisted shares using public blockchain, “BRØK,” moved into regulatory sandbox phase earlier this month and plans to use Ethereum Layer 2 “Arbitrum” (2). “BRØK will support various user scenarios, such as disclosure of information about shareholders, transfer of shares, and disclosures related to stock allocations and removals for corporate events.

https://www.neweconomy.jp/posts/290715

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The news that the government adopted Ethereum’s Layer 2, arbitrum, as a blockchain.arbitrumis currently one of the most traded L2 chains. Cryptocurrencies themselves have not yet been issued, but many investors are paying attention to it.

L2usecase includes large enterprises leveragingPolygon’sNFTutilization, but it is very interesting that a public one uses Ethereum’sL2.

Federal Reserve Board policy shift to improve cryptocurrency market this year; Ark Invest CEO predicts.

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Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood of Ark Invest, a crypto and technology investment company, believes that cryptocurrency will undergo a major shift this year due to falling inflation and the Federal Reserve’s policy shift. She said she is waiting for signals from the Federal Reserve and believes “that will come in the first half of 2023.”

https://jp.cointelegraph.com/news/ark-invest-ceo-eyes-crypto-turnaround-amid-whiffs-of-a-fed-pivot

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In 2023, cryptocurrency is expected to reach a turning point, and prices have already begun to rebound.

Ark Invest holds cryptocurrency funds, blockchain VC and technology stocks, and seems confident that progress will accelerate and stock selection will succeed.

What regulators will understand about cryptocurrency in 2023?

“2023will see the first half still be hawkish (the Fed) and continue rate hikes to fight inflation, making it tough for investors.”

s severe collapses in digital assets, and the growing link between crypto assets and traditional finance, may lead regulators to take a more central role in 2023, Chen says.

Chen also notes the crypto price recovery, saying, “The crypto winter is thawing.”

“Of course, the crypto market won’t move in a straight line. This is true for any market. However, we expect a shift from a bear market to a bull market.” (Mr. Green)

https://www.coindeskjapan.com/171952/

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Regarding US rate hikes cooling, there are varying views: some expect it in early 2023, others anticipate until mid-2023.

Also, I personally watch how far Ethereum’s ecosystem on L2 can expand.L2.