January 16 (Mon): Nikkei 225 (free viewing item: strategy)

Good morning ☀

Since we have received several similar questions, today I plan to introduce the questions and also delve deeper into explanations.

Surely even when everyone becomes able to construct scenarios, there will still be hesitation afterward, so I intend to explain thoroughly?

What were the questions you sent?

「When there are rising and falling scenarios, does that mean you cannot trade at present？」

First, a fundamental premise:

Rising scenarios and falling scenarios

should be considered for both!

No matter how strong the upward [trend channel] seems, if it shifts from [Boji] to [closing state], it will likely fall at least temporarily.

From there, it may move to [squeeze] → downward [expansion].

If you don’t think about the opposite scenario, you won’t be able to do anything when the market reverses?

Those constructed rising and falling scenarios

How far can the rise go? How far can the fall go?

Keep that firmly in mind,

Which time frame

Which direction will you aim for?

to consider.

For example, from the current price

there is a scenario where it continues to rise,

and a scenario where it first falls to the MA and then rises.

① Place a test long.

② If it falls near the MA, understand the unrealized loss and then average in (Nampin).

Of course, since averaging in is assumed, you must adjust lot sizes (risk management) so that the total loss does not exceed the【Maximum Acceptable Loss】by planning ahead.in advanceis essential.

③ If the scenario rises as expected, take profits.

④ Once past the MA, do not hesitate to cut losses.

At this point,‘absolutely’make sure your loss does not exceed the maximum acceptable loss.

When you can think of multiple scenarios,

There are several“scenarios overlap”points.

Targeting those points makes it very easy to take profits.

（※For members, a concrete example will be described below.)

This is a story I told in a salon about three years ago, but…

First, about scenario construction???

So“scenarios overlap”adds even more confusion???

Hardly anyone understood it, right??

However, I think everyone has come to understand scenario construction quite a bit.

So it should be understood to some extent, I think?

I hope it is conveyed even if just a little?

If you trade without scenarios, guessing up or down, you will not be able to earn consistently, right?

‘The market is not something you predict’

This will become lengthy, so I will stop here for now, but

Please take another look at the way of thinking, okay?

（※Below, market awareness is limited to members.)