December 16 (Fri): GOLD (Free viewing item: Assume the worst-case scenario)

Good evening?

When constructing a scenario

“Always prepare for the worst-case scenario!”

If you don’t consider the worst possible situation, when it actually happens you’ll panic, can’t cut losses, and won’t be able to move.

However, for those who have not experienced itthe “worst-case scenario”and those who have years of experience with itthe “worst-case scenario”are like completely different things.

For someone whose trading history is 1 or 2 yearsthe “worst-case scenario”let’s suppose it moved about 100 pips in an instant.

However, those who knew about the Employment Report from a few years ago know that depending on the currency pair, it can move 200-300 pips in an instant, and for high-volatility pairs it can move 500 pips.

Therefore, you can also consider that 200-300 or 500 pips can move in an instant.

Furthermore, those who know the Swiss franc shock know that it moved more than 1,000 pips in an instant.

Not only momentary price movements, but shocks like〇〇 occur almost every year.

Recently, for example, the Covid shock occurred

“This kind of decline happens once in hundreds of years!”

“The end of the world!”

“I’ve never seen a decline like this!”

I’ve seen many salon owners and influencers saying such things.

Do you understand?

People with only 2 or 3 years of market history who say they are earning profits…

the danger of learning from them…?

If I were to learnit would be better to learn from someone who has had positive earnings for at least 10 consecutive years!I would be grateful if you could understand this?

By the way, if a crash in the Nikkei 225 occurs at this stage…

I’m anticipating a sharp drop to around 17,700-17,000 yen.

It wouldn’t be strange if the drop exceeded 10,000 yen.

Therefore, I am taking a somewhat aggressive stance on shorts, while keeping longs in a cautious mode.

No one knows whether a crash will occur.

However, because we are thinking about it, we can prepare in advance for various scenarios.

（※Below, market awareness is limited to members only.）