Cryptocurrency market analysis [December 14]
Practical Cryptocurrency Investment Article December 14
To all subscribers
If you have topics you’d like us to cover or questions, please contact us.
Q&A
We will introduce parts of it in the column.
【Awarded 5th place in Mag Magazine Grand Prize】
At a major newsletter site in 2020
Mag Magazine Grand Prize was announced
and we were able to win a prize.
※Currently Mag Mag magazine distribution has ended
and moved to this article.
【Cryptocurrency Market Analysis】
Slack price movement of cryptocurrencies since last week
is summarized as follows
Display: current price (change from one week ago)
Bitcoin240ten thousand yen（3.6％）
Ethereum180000yen(4%）
Binance Coin37000yen(-6％）
Ripple52yen（-％）
Solana1900yen(-%)
Cardano42yen（-%）
Polkadot713yen（-5%）
Avalanche 1850yen(-%)
Uniswap830yen（-%）
Bitcoin has been slightly rising since last week.
Bitcoin Daily Chart (USD)
From June, within a range market (the area enclosed by the red horizontal line)FTXas a trigger.
The current price is moving within the next lower range.
The weekly chart analysis is as follows.
Weekly chart
・It dropped below the all-time high of the 2017-end bubble for the first time this year.
・Has remained below the 200-day moving average (orange line).
This situation remains unchanged from the daily chart and weekly chart.
From the price now, the chart shows that the peak of the 2017 year-end bubble is viewed as a key point.2017year-end peak is seen as a point of reference.
Recently, the U.S. CPI (Consumer Price Index) was released and came in lower than expected, causing a slight price rise.
The bottom of cryptocurrency market decline is often said to be around year-end and New Year.
Will Bitcoin exceed 1 hundred million yen?
—-ーー
Noted cryptocurrency analystPlanBis known for building theS2F（stock-to-flow）model, and when validated with theS2Fmodel, predicts Bitcoin (BTC) will rise by5,800%in the coming years.
“If myS2Fmodel from2019is correct, the next halving could see Bitcoin's price move between10million dollars (about1,360万円) and100million dollars (about1億3,600万円) at its peak.”
https://coinchoice.net/bitcoin-price-might-be-1-million-in-2024-planb-s2f-model/
ーーー
The S2F model has long been a topic in Bitcoin price forecasts.
Bitcoin halving is the event every four years when the issuance of new coins halves; as years pass, Bitcoin’s issuance decreases (mining rewards also decrease).
I haven’t often seen forecasts of Bitcoin reaching 100 million yen. Recently, around 40–50 million yen was considered high.
The forecast range is quite large, but in the last 2020 halving, Bitcoin ranged from about 50,000 to 7,000,000 yen by 2022 (COVID-19 shock).
About 14x gain.
If applying the same gain, Bitcoin would rise from 7,000,000 yen to 100,000,000 yen.
The target is large, but Bitcoin has historically shown gains exceeding expectations in prior halvings.
FTX CEO Arrested
FTXcollapsed, causing a major shock, and the former CEO was arrested in the Bahamas.CEOhas since relocated to the Bahamas after the collapse.
ーーー
Bahamas Royal Police (RBPF) on the 12th announced the arrest of former CEO Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF).
In the statement, Bahamas Attorney General Ryan Pinder explained that this action followed a request from the U.S. government regarding his apprehension. He was arrested with an eye toward extradition to the United States.
Moreover, although U.S. authorities have not disclosed details yet, the request for custody appears to come from the SDNY (Southern District of New York).
ーーー
On top of this, the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) has also filed charges against the CEO for securities violations.
This has been reported nationwide in the news.
There are rumors of life imprisonment (likely given past history).
The former CEO, Sam, comes from a well-off family; his parents attended Stanford University, and his father is a professor at MIT, indicating a well-connected lineage, with ties to the SEC, etc. He also has donated substantial political funds to the Biden administration, so he may already be negotiating some settlement.
Nevertheless, from a government-regulation perspective, FTX was trusted, yet when the lid was lifted, this is the kind of situation that makes it hard to know what to trust.
This is driving a push for exchanges to adopt proof of reserves, publicly disclosing their safe assets.
Binance under Money Laundering Scrutiny
ーーー
The major media outlet Reuters on the 12th reported that U.S. federal prosecutors are divided on whether to criminally charge Binance and CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ) and others in relation to money-laundering deliberations.
ーーー
As the world’s largest exchange, Binance has often been compared to FTX in the past.
With its headquarters in a tax haven and users worldwide, it faced criticism from many countries.
Binance has suffered a hack once, but it has compensated entirely from its own funds, resulting in no real loss to customers.
Nevertheless, Binance has also been known as a common destination for stolen crypto.
I once had a small amount of crypto stolen; tracing the funds, they ended up moving to Binance. Since crypto transaction histories are公開, you can trace transfers. If you report to the police, moving funds to overseas exchanges like Binance often takes a long time to process. That is very inconvenient.
Binance’s address is not a personal address but a Binance address, so once funds are deposited, the outward address becomes unclear (since it’s part of a larger pool, the specific sent amount gets mixed in).
This and other factors suggest it could have been used for money laundering. Binance tightened identity verification about a year ago, making real-name verification necessary for substantive trading, yet the handling remains somewhat lax.
However, Binance has a fast pace of listing coins and handles many promising cryptocurrencies, with low trading fees, so investors around the world have traded there.
And Binance has also contributed significantly to the maturation of the crypto market.
Bottom for Bitcoin: Is there widespread selling?
ーーー
Arthur Hayes, former CEO of the crypto derivatives platform BitMEX, says that centralized lending companies (CEL) in financial trouble typically first extend loans and then sell Bitcoin, because they view crypto as “reserve assets” with the highest liquidity and primitive characteristics
“I believe that due to the Fed’s tightening policy, at some point in 2023 the U.S. Treasury market will malfunction. At that time, the Fed will print a lot of money, and all risk assets including Bitcoin are expected to surge.”
ーーー
He predicts the bottom of the crypto market is near. In fact, many say the bottom may come around the start of the year.
Rises in Bitcoin and other cryptos could be triggered by collapses in fiat currencies around the world.
In this bear market, countries like MicroStrategy (a NASDAQ company) and El Salvador particularly show notable buying activity.
If Bitcoin makes a strong rebound, these countries could greatly increase their asset holdings.
※In the paid subscription section, we perform deeper stock analyses. If you want to invest more deeply beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum, and want to understand the future of the cryptocurrency market and ride its wave, consider subscribing. Research is essential and ongoing.
(This article has been distributed since 2016)
