Cryptocurrency Market Analysis [November 29]

Cryptocurrency Practical Investment Article November 29

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【Cryptocurrency Market Analysis】

The price fluctuations of cryptocurrencies from last week

over the past week are summarized as follows

Display: current price (change from one week ago)

Bitcoin226ten thousand yen (-％）

Ethereum167,000yen(-6%)）

Binance Coin41,000yen(13％）

Ripple54yen（-3％）

Solana1,800yen(9%)

Cardano43yen（-%）

Polkadot735yen（-%）

Avalanche 1700yen(1%)

Uniswap750yen（1%）

Bitcoin has remained in the 2.3 million yen price range without significant change over the past week.

Bitcoin Daily Chart (USD)

In a range since around six months ago (the area enclosed by the red horizontal line), Bitcoin continued within this range, but the lower bound (the lower red line) fell below the year’s lowest price prompted by the collapse of FTX.FTXcollapsed, triggering a break below the year's low.

The current price is near the lowest price, and from the June low price a line has been drawn showing minor price movements; it feels barely holding on.

The weekly chart analysis is as follows.

Weekly chart

• At the end of 2017, the peak price was broken below for the first time this year.

• It remains below the 200-day moving average (orange line).

This situation continues.

The weekly chart hasn’t changed from last week.

From the chart, what is holding the current price is seen as the peak price of the 2017 year-end bubble, as a single point.2017year-end bubble peak is viewed as one key point.

And if it falls again, the price is expected to pause around the 12,000 to 13,000 USD region as shown by the red horizontal line on the chart.

BlockFi filed for bankruptcy.

Overseas cryptocurrency exchangeFTXcollapsed, and the lending company that had been acquiredBlockFifiled for bankruptcy as well.

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Crypto asset (virtual currency) lending giant BlockFiBlockFiannounced on11月28日, that it filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

The company will proceed with restructuring and continue operations for the time being. According to the press release, it has about2億5700万 dollars in cash on hand. Related Bermuda-based subsidiaries also filed for liquidation.

According to the filing, creditors exceed10万人以上。Assets and liabilities both range from10億ドル～100億ドル. The largest creditor isAnkura Trust Companywith a claim of7億3000万ドル. The second largest isFTX USoperated byWest Realm Shires Inc.and2億7500万ドル.SEC(which is the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission also has3000万ドルの債権を持っている。

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Lending is a system where customers deposit cryptocurrency and the company manages it to pay interest; the interest rate was significantly higher than existing bank rates, making it a popular financial product.

When major lending companies end up like this, it greatly damages trust in cryptocurrency exchanges that hold assets (not just lending).

From this, further regulatory tightening for exchanges is expected, but many people must feel, "Why now? It’s obviously wrong to presumptively manage customers’ assets."

Including this, there has been a recent trend toward disclosing reserves held by cryptocurrency exchanges.

Regarding domestic exchanges, the Financial Services Agency supervises them, so regulations are stricter than overseas; but within the domestic market there are still downsides, such as coins listing being 2-3 weeks late, or the investor's fees remaining high in the sales platform.

Are cryptocurrencies dangerous?

The recent collapse in cryptocurrency prices is largely due toFTXfailing, caused by misappropriation of customer crypto assets and failed management.

Therefore many investors have shifted to keep assets less on exchanges and more in personal wallets.

However, even those who store cryptocurrencies other thanFTXare not immune from price losses caused by the collapse ofFTX.

In the current stagnant market, price declines are inevitable, but it is personal disappointment that the decline rate resembles the 2017 bubble; despite market maturity, the decline mirrors the previous bubble, which is a bit odd.

The cryptocurrency market, after the 2017 bubble, saw distributed exchanges gain influence and centralised exchanges likeFTXbecome powerful, while Ethereum ecosystem expanded; thanks to improved processing, various projects emerged.

Investors should focus on protecting their own assets and riding the waves of the maturing market. This is crucial.

Of course, buying cheap prices can yield large returns, but whether to view this as a chance depends on everyday information gathering.

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FTXcollapse was not due to lack of regulation or codebase failure. It was human error.FTXcollapse shows that truly decentralized, transparent, and open web 3 technology protects users better and supports a fairer, more resilient digital financial system. Let me explain why.

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