Current analysis of USD/JPY: “Is this a correction within a bottoming zone?” March 11, 2018

March 11, 2018, USD/JPY Weekly


In the weekly chart, the downtrend is continuing. The candlesticks are moving away from the 12 EMA and are between -1σ and -2σ, indicating a normal-strong downtrend. The +3σ of the Bollinger Band has started to move sideways, while -3σ is pointing downward, suggesting the downtrend will continue for a while. It has paused near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, but in the first half of this year, it may move downward?


March 11, 2018, USD/JPY Daily


Friday’s close was above the 12 EMA, and the downtrend has weakened. From the Bollinger Bands perspective, it closed above -1σ, suggesting a loss of trendness. However, although the new lows have stopped being updated, it has not formed higher highs, so the downtrend continues. The downtrend persists, but the MACD line is gradually rising (divergence) is continuing.


March 11, 2018, USD/JPY 4-hour


In the 4-hour chart, from the March 2 low, a higher low and higher high forming an 'N' shape indicate a short-term uptrend. The EMAs cross and the MACD line is positive, which also indicates an uptrend. However, this N-wave seems to be a corrective wave to the previous decline. This N-wave is likely to continue with another drop and rise, but the key question is whether the downtrend will end by surpassing the February 21 high.


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