Cryptocurrency market analysis [October 4]
Practical Cryptocurrency Investment Article October 4
To our subscribers
If you have topics you’d like us to cover or questions, please contact us.
Q&AWe will introduce some items in the corner.
【Ranked 5th in Mag Magazine Awards】
At Mag Mag, a major newsletter site in 2020
the Magazine Award was announced
and we were able to win.
※Currently Mag Mag distribution has ended
and has transitioned to this article.
【Cryptocurrency Market Analysis】
The price movement of cryptocurrencies since last week
(one week) is summarized as follows
Summary: current price (increase/decrease from one week ago)
Bitcoin290ten thousand yen (4%)
Ethereum195000yen(1.2%）
Binance Coin42000yen(6％）Ripple67yen（0.4％）Solana4800yen(-0.5%)Cardano62yen（-%）Polkadot930yen（+1%）Avalanche 2500yen(-1%)Uniswap970yen（13%）Bitcoin has risen from 2.7 million yen last week to the vicinity of 2.9 million yen.290ten thousand yen level is fluctuating.Bitcoin Daily Chart (USD)In the daily chart, after a significant drop6months ago, it rebounded briefly and has been rising gradually, but8month19to20days saw a large downward correction, bringing the price to its current level.6Bitcoin remains within the range since June (the area circled by the red horizontal line).One recent factor causing a rebound is that United Nations agencies warned of recession risks due to aggressive tightening by central banks, suggesting a potential trigger for a rebound in global markets.Nevertheless, the rise was modest.Bitcoin continues to trade within a range, but recently it has been trending lower within that range.Weekly chart analysis remains as follows.Weekly Chart・From the all-time high at the end of 2017, it has rebounded and moved higher in the short term, but dropped to the June low level・Below the 200-day moving average (orange line)—the situation remains the same as last week.Prices are converging toward the red line and horizontal red line from last year’s highs.UNCTAD (United Nations Conference on Trade and Development) Warns of Recession Risks Tied to "Hasty" Monetary Policy――UNCTAD on the 3rd warned of global recession risks linked to monetary policy in many countries, saying that developing nations could be severely affected and urged “to adjust course.”In a statement accompanying its annual report, UNCTAD said “excessive monetary tightening could bring stagnation and economic anxiety in some countries,” and that “relying on rate hikes and pushing prices down without triggering a recession is a reckless bet.”They stressed that “if you rely on only one tool to bring inflation down, you may slow the world and push economies into recession.”―――https://jp.reuters.com/article/un-trade-idJPKBN2QY1UU％）
Ripple67yen（0.4％）
Solana4800yen(-0.5%)
Cardano62yen（-%）
Polkadot930yen（+1%）
Avalanche 2500yen(-1%)
Uniswap970yen（13%）
Bitcoin has risen from 2.7 million yen last week to the vicinity of 2.9 million yen.290ten thousand yen level is fluctuating.
Bitcoin Daily Chart (USD)
In the daily chart, after a significant drop6months ago, it rebounded briefly and has been rising gradually, but8month19to20days saw a large downward correction, bringing the price to its current level.
6Bitcoin remains within the range since June (the area circled by the red horizontal line).
One recent factor causing a rebound is that United Nations agencies warned of recession risks due to aggressive tightening by central banks, suggesting a potential trigger for a rebound in global markets.
Nevertheless, the rise was modest.
Bitcoin continues to trade within a range, but recently it has been trending lower within that range.
Weekly chart analysis remains as follows.
Weekly Chart
・From the all-time high at the end of 2017, it has rebounded and moved higher in the short term, but dropped to the June low level
・Below the 200-day moving average (orange line)
—the situation remains the same as last week.
Prices are converging toward the red line and horizontal red line from last year’s highs.
UNCTAD (United Nations Conference on Trade and Development) Warns of Recession Risks Tied to "Hasty" Monetary Policy
――
UNCTAD on the 3rd warned of global recession risks linked to monetary policy in many countries, saying that developing nations could be severely affected and urged “to adjust course.”
In a statement accompanying its annual report, UNCTAD said “excessive monetary tightening could bring stagnation and economic anxiety in some countries,” and that “relying on rate hikes and pushing prices down without triggering a recession is a reckless bet.”
They stressed that “if you rely on only one tool to bring inflation down, you may slow the world and push economies into recession.”
―――
https://jp.reuters.com/article/un-trade-idJPKBN2QY1UU
Following news from UN agencies, the cryptocurrency market has shown a slight rebound.
Regarding interest rates, as the U.S. announced continued rate hikes from last week, the crypto market has seen further declines, but voices from UN agencies now express concern about unilateral rate increases.
Robert Kiyosaki: Bitcoin a Buy Now as the U.S. Dollar Surges
――
Entrepreneur and author of the best-seller Rich Dad Poor Dad, Robert Kiyosaki, said that Bitcoin (BTC), silver, and gold are a “buy” in the context of rising dollar and ongoing rate hikes.
October2nd,210million followers via a Twitter post that the price of this so-called “safe asset” would fall as the U.S. dollar rises, and that if the FED pivots and lowers rates, its value would be proven.
This “pivot” could happen as early as2023年1月, predicting a dollar crash similar to the recently collapsed British pound.
――
Robert Kiyosaki has long urged attention to assets such as Bitcoin, gold, and silver. (The article notes 2020, but he has spoken on this since much earlier.)
In this news piece, the focus is on interest rates and suggests that a rebound in crypto assets could occur at the timing of rate cuts. There is also a view that a large drop could occur beforehand.
Bitcoin, unlike unlimited fiat currency, has a cap of 21 million coins and is designed to reduce issuance every four years via halving.
Thus it is designed to increase in value over time.
Kiyosaki also notes the perspective that Bitcoin is not government-controlled, calling it “people’s money.”
Ironically, if government currencies lose trust, Bitcoin’s value could rise further.
Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Prepare for “Storms Ahead” — Small Investors Watching
―――
Even in recent market downturns, crypto investors have found encouragement. In Q3 (July-September), it performed better than almost all other asset classes, but price floors are still being sought. Long-term holders cling to pain, while small investors remain cautious.
According to Glassnode, “mature coins” are at or near all-time highs, but market turmoil leads long-term investors to avoid using them for now. The steadfast HODL crowd remains steadfast, preparing for future storms.
Mati Gilman and the chief market strategist at Miller Tabak, Matt Maley, say, “Prices overall must improve, or retail investors will grow discouraged. We’re in a range-bound market, and right now it isn’t that kind of situation,” and note that a market that can’t break out of a sideways range can be especially discouraging for individual investors.
https://www.bloomberg.co.jp/news/articles/2022-10-03/RJ5KG7DWRGG001
ーーー
In Bloomberg’s news, long-term investors are preparing for potential further drops (a view similar to that of Robert Kiyosaki).
This means enduring future declines and viewing them as opportunities for some investors.
Tesla’s sale of a portion of its Bitcoin holdings this year is said to be to increase cash position to prepare for potential economic downturns.
The market remains in a range, but there will come a time when it moves.
Considering both scenarios, it is important to think about what investment actions to take (or not) in the future.
Enduring crypto volatility is not easy, but we should approach the market with a long-term perspective.
ーーー
※Paid subscription content includes more advanced stock analysis.
If you want to invest more deeply beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum, and want to understand the future flow of the crypto market and ride the wave, please consider subscribing.
Continued research is very important.
(This article has been distributed since 2016)
