Cryptocurrency Market Analysis [September 20]
Practical cryptocurrency investment article September 20
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【Crypto Market Analysis】
The price fluctuation of cryptocurrencies over the past week
is summarized as follows
Display: current price (change from one week ago)
Bitcoin275万円 (-13％）
Ethereum193000円(-20%）
Binance Coin38700円(-7.5％）
Ripple55円（9％）
Solana4600円(-13%)
Cardano64円（-10%）
Polkadot902円（-17%）
Avalanche 2400円(-20%)
Uniswap778円（-3%）
ICP 861円（-12％）
Bitcoin has fallen from last week's 290万円 to around 270万円.
Bitcoin daily chart (USD)
In the daily chart6months, prices rose gradually from a low in the short term,8month19to20days there was a large decline, leading to the current price.
Since last week, Bitcoin reacted to news of the US rate hike and fell sharply, reaching the lowest price level in 2022.
Within the chart, although it is in a range enclosed by the red line, the key level of $20,000 has broken downward.
Currently, the price being watched is the June low of this year, so whether it breaks below that level is a focal point.
Last week there was news that the US rate hikes would continue, and because this was unexpected, the entire cryptocurrency market declined.
Goldman Sachs in the US initially predicted a stronger yen, but with the news of continued rate hikes, the financial markets are likely to feel more pain.
For the weekly chart, the following analysis continues.
Weekly chart
• From the end of 2017 bubble price, there has been a rebound and a short-term upward trend, but it fell to the June low level
• It is below the 200-day moving average (orange line)
as of now.
Looking at the red line drawn from Bitcoin's all-time high in 2021 on the chart,
we can draw a line at the recent price high, and the key point is which side the price will break out of the triangle enclosed by the red line.
In the future, it will be important whether the trend continues and breaks below the June low.
Is Bitcoin better than physical assets? (Michael Saylor)
Michael Saylor is the chairman of MicroStrategy, a company known for holding Bitcoin.
There is news that Saylor has expressed the view that Bitcoin is better than physical assets such as land or gold.
In summary:
●Physical assets like gold and land have geographic boundaries, while Bitcoin can be traded easily anywhere in the world.
●In global geopolitical tensions (wars, etc.), Bitcoin plays a significant role in preserving assets.
●Since Bitcoin’s birth, over 13 years, the network has never been hacked and remains decentralized (not centralized).
These are the reasons.
This area is somewhat similar to the content Arthur from BitMEX wrote about war and Bitcoin that we introduced earlier.
Indeed, geopolitical tensions—i.e., when war occurs, states take priority, assets may be confiscated, or assets must be used for war—are situations in which Bitcoin’s characteristics can be advantageous, as mentioned below.
Some people hold Bitcoin on crypto exchanges, while others hold it in personal wallets.
Personal wallets includeUSBtype devices; removing them does not mean Bitcoin is stolen just by theft.
Therefore, Bitcoin is not physical.
As long as you properly manage the recovery phrase for your wallet, you can transact anywhere in the world where there is internet access.
Reference article
Ethereum falls after the Merge
On the 15th last week, Ethereum completed the long-anticipated major upgrade—the Merge.
From POW toPOS, the transition occurred smoothly without downtime.
This has been a long-awaited development for years, but after the merge, Ethereum’s price declined by almost 20%.
Ethereum chart
Since Ethereum shifted toPOS, attention is on staking by institutional investors (depositing Ethereum to earn interest), and according to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), this may be considered a security.
If it is classified as a security, it would be subject to securities laws, butSEC has previously stated that Bitcoin and Ethereum are not securities, and they have issued this opinion regarding the Merge.
Personally, I’m not overly concerned about the price drop, and I’m impressed that the transition toPOS happened so smoothly.
POSSince the Merge, Ethereum has shown characteristics of increased staking and supply contraction. In other words… (details in the paid section)
From a more rational framework, Ethereum has moved toPOS, and going forward I personally feel that ecosystems like L2 will grow substantially.
With this trend in mind, it may be beneficial to keep an eye on where opportunities will emerge as we watch the next developments.
