Cryptocurrency Market Analysis [August 30]
Virtual Currency Practical Investment Article August 30
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【Cryptocurrency Market Analysis】
The price changes of cryptocurrencies since last week
(one week) are summarized as follows
Display: current price (change from one week ago)
Bitcoin273万 yen（-7％）
Ethereum201000円(-7%）
Binance Coin38000円(-6％）
Ripple44円（-6％）
Solana4900円(-5%)
Cardano61円（-3.5%）
Polkadot960円（-5%）
Avalanche 2650円(-14%)
Uniswap820円（-13%）
ICP 860円（-1％）
Bitcoin was just under 3,000,000 yen last week, but there was further downside adjustment, and it is now fluctuating around the 2,700,000 yen level.
Bitcoin daily chart (USD)
In the daily chart,6 months onward, short-term lows had been gradually rising, and price was gradually increasing, but8 month19 to20 saw a large downward adjustment, leading to the current price.
For the price range around 20,000 USD that attracted attention last week, prices have broken below and are staying down below that level.
Technically, the price has fallen below 19,600 and 20,000 USD, but the zone has not yet been completely broken out of.
In the chart, since June this year a horizontal line (red line) has been drawn at the lows, and you can see the price has returned to around that area.
With the price having returned to the current range, it seems the price is now within a range between a upper bound around 26,000 USD and a lower bound around 18,000 USD.
Whether it will move back and forth within this range for a while, or whether it will break down the lower bound further, is a key point to watch.
Next, let’s look at the weekly chart (USD).
We have been conducting analyses as follows.
・From the peak of the 2017 end-bubble, there has been a rebound and a short-term rising trend, but it fell to the June low level
・It is below the 200-day moving average (orange line)
This is the same as the daily chart; the focus is on how price moves within the red-framed range.
The current large decline seems to have been sparked by Chairman Powell’s comments at the Jackson Hole Conference that “it is necessary to continue until inflation is contained.”
Expectations for rate cuts may have existed, but it looks like tightening through interest rates will continue for a while.
Nevertheless, among investors, many seem to be adopting strategies that contemplate further declines, so regardless of which way it goes, it may be wise to anticipate how you should respond.
In this downturn, I personally feel a stronger sense of gloom than before.
【CoinGecko’s Domestic Currency Ranking】
https://twitter.com/CoinGeckoJapan/status/1563117055422803968
CoinGecko is famous as a cryptocurrency price distribution site, and the domestic currency ranking was announced at the end of August.
This is probably based on the number of views of currency pages on CoinGecko’s site.
In other words, the currency ranked #1 is the one whose page has been viewed the most.
In the ranking,
1：Ronin
2：Tenset
3：Cosmos
4：Stepn
5：bitcoin
https://twitter.com/CoinGeckoJapan/status/1563117055422803968
Roninis a cryptocurrency bridge site, but this news is out.
One of the world’s most popular NFT games, “Axie Infinity,” was targeted by a cyberattack, resulting in the theft of more than $600 million (about 73 billion yen). Ronin Network served as the bridge linking cryptocurrency transfers within and outside Axie Infinity between the game and the blockchain.
https://japan.cnet.com/article/35185655/
———
It seems a substantial amount has been hacked.
TensetI’m not very familiar with, but a quick search shows a Japanese influencer promoting it.
CosmosI have known about it, but why is it ranked No.3 in Japan?
CosomosThere doesn’t seem to be a particular problem with Cosmos itself, but I’ve heard that there was domestic material promoting Cosmos, which may have influenced its ranking.
Cosmosallows earning interest by depositing the currency, but perhaps the people who promoted Cosmos did so to run their operations by having others deposit, thereby earning interest rewards themselves.
(If you deposit currency, you need to choose a custodian, but the custodian also manages on behalf of the depositor, so you can earn interest.)
Otherwise, it’s hard to explain whyCosmoswould rank highly.
And nextStepn,StepnisNFTshoes you buy, and you earn cryptocurrency rewards by actually walking while owning a smartphone.
It was very popular for a while, but after the currency collapsed, it largely faded from discussion, though it remains high in domestic rankings.
What I feel when looking at these is that they are mostly promoted as “you can earn quickly.”
And it seems many Japanese viewers are swayed by such content.
In the information I have, the kinds of items that you don’t normally hear about only rise to CoinGecko’s domestic top rankings, which is puzzling.
Currently, with Ethereum’s merge (major upgrade) planned for mid-September, it might be normal for Ethereum to be at the top.
Also majorVChave given their views, but with the merge, Ethereum’sL2 (Layer-2) network-related coins may gain attention.
Among domestically listed coins,Matic（Polygon）is also one of them.
L2Technology is attracting attentionZkwill be released early next year.
Coca-Cola recently made news about releasingPolygonNFTs on its network.
However, in CoinGecko’s domestic ranking, there are many stocks whose future potential is not clearly visible.
The US ranking differs even more from Japan.
Reflecting on how I should have managed my investments, and whether I chased “easy profits” and what the outcomes were, is important.
Influencers seldom advertise unless there is a benefit for them, right?
Temporary price rises followed by losses or prices that do not recover cannot be considered as having future potential.
