Cryptocurrency Market Analysis [August 23]
Practical Cryptocurrency Investment Article - August 23
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【Cryptocurrency Market Analysis】
The price fluctuations of cryptocurrencies since last week
(over one week) are summarized as follows
Display: current price (change from one week ago)
Bitcoin29,500,000 yen (-9％）
Ethereum222,000 yen(-12%）
Binance Coin40,900 yen(-4％）
Ripple47 yen（-6％）
Solana4,900 yen(-16%)
Cardano63 yen（-14%）
Polkadot1,040 yen（-11%）
Avalanche 3100 yen(-15%)
Uniswap970 yen（-14%）
ICP 878 yen（ ％）
Bitcoin was around3,200 million yen last week, but there was a major downtrend adjustment, and it is currently3,000 million yen level and below in trend.
Bitcoin daily chart (USD)
In the daily chart,6 months ago, prices rose gradually from a low in the short term as they formed a rising base.
8Month19 to20 there was a large downtrend adjustment, leading to the current price.
Nevertheless, the price area around the notable level of 20,000 dollars is still being defended. (Current around 21,400 dollars)
On the chart, since June this year a trend line (red) has been drawn from the lows, and the current price is just touching that line and rebounding.
If this red line breaks downward, it could fall to around 20,000 dollars.
Next, let us look at the weekly chart (USD).
We have made analyses as follows so far.
- From the high at the end of 2017 bubble, it has rebounded and has been rising in the short term with a right shoulder up trend.
- A key point is whether it can surpass the 200-day moving average (orange line).
Among these, the 200-day moving average has fallen below due to this downturn.
Going forward, attention will be on how the price moves above 20,000 dollars.
Regarding U.S. rate hikes, although expectations of them have calmed somewhat, the situation has not changed, and there is still a possibility of further decline.
In any case, for those considering buying, it may be prudent to prepare for either scenario so you can respond.
【Ethereum overtaking Bitcoin in market capitalization?】
The merge announced is Ethereum’s major upgrade scheduled for September 15.
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Ethereum (ETH) may, in one year, exceed Bitcoin (BTC) in market capitalization, according to research firmFSInsights in a report dated8 month12 day. The Ethereum blockchain’s move to Proof of Stake (PoS) reduces token issuance and selling pressure from miners.
PoS transition “Merge will be completed, the “supply inflation rate will decrease, and selling pressure from miners will be fixed at zero.”CoinDesk data shows Bitcoin’s market cap is about4,610 billion dollars, while Ethereum is2,260 billion dollars, and the gap is stark.
Once the impact of the merge settles, it is said that “deflationary supply flow could be very constructive for prices.”
https://www.coindeskjapan.com/157663/
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As Ethereum tightens supply after the merge, it is expected to become a deflationary asset in the mid-to-long term, making prices more likely to rise.
Also, with Ethereum’s market cap about half that of Bitcoin, tightening supply could lead to easier price increases for Ethereum, attracting further investor inflows and expanding Ethereum’s ecosystem and capital inflows.
That area is perhaps a major point.
And recently, one reason the cryptocurrency market surged was the expectation of Ethereum’s merge.
However, prices, including Ethereum, recently fell sharply, returning to levels from a month ago.
Investors appear to be buying Ethereum around the current level of about 1,600 dollars.
In the most recent month, the price rise was driven mainly by expectations for the merge, and before September 15, it falls back somewhat.
This is a sign of buying the dip.
Overseas cryptocurrency exchangeBitmex founder Arthur says, “If there are no current problems with the merge, this might be a buying point.”
The effect of Ethereum’s tightened supply will only be realized in the mid-to-long term, and buying the dip now is a forward-looking approach for that perspective.
For those who have not fared well in crypto investing so far, it is important to consider why Arthur made this kind of view at this timing.
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