Virtual currency market analysis [August 9]

Cryptocurrency Practical Investment Article August 9

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【Cryptocurrency Market Analysis】

The price fluctuations of cryptocurrencies since last week

(one week) are summarized as follows

Summary: current price (change from one week ago)

Bitcoin316万 y(en-yen) (3％）

Ethereum230000円(8%）

Binance Coin43000円(15％）

Ripple50円（5％）

Solana5300円(6%)

Cardano70円（4%）

Polkadot1200円（12%）

Avalanche 3700円(19%)

Uniswap1140円（4%）

ICP　1000円（　％）

Bitcoin is above 3 million yen from last week and is gradually rising, now at around300万円, rising to the current level of310万円.

Bitcoin daily chart (USD)

In the daily chart,6months ago, it has been gradually climbing the lows in the short term.

The notable 20,000 dollars has clearly been broken to the upside (current price 23,600 dollars)

As a target price, the same as last week, it can be said that it is attempting to reach 25,000 dollars.

Prices are rising, but the tightening due to US interest rate policy has not changed, and I cannot determine the bottom at this stage.

Next, let's look at the weekly chart (USD).

Last week I analyzed as follows.

- From the peak price at the end of 2017, it has rebounded and risen on a short-term upward slope.

- The price is just above the 200-day moving average line (orange line), and whether it can break above this moving average in the future is a major point.

Regarding the 200-day moving average, this week's candlestick started above the 200-day moving average, and from the chart it looks like an upward trend.

Bitcoin collapse and MicroStrategy CEO resignationCEOresigns

As a Bitcoin investment company, MicroStrategy, which is now globally famous, invested $4 billion in Bitcoin and has suffered a loss of $1 billion, leading to the resignation.

https://www.coindeskjapan.com/156644/

CEOSaylor began actively purchasing Bitcoin from 2020, and it drew attention that Nasdaq companies were buying Bitcoin at the time. Soon after, news that PayPal, a major payment company, would support cryptocurrency payments also attracted global attention.

Holding Bitcoin, which is highly volatile, and losing 1/4 of assets is, personally, somewhat normal. If MicroStrategy had been investing since the previous bubble burst in 2018, it would be different, but in the medium to long term, it is understandable; however, since it is company money, there are constraints.

I am personally watching the future outcome of this investment with a view toward the long term.

Investing only in Bitcoin also has a certain consistent appealw

Possibility of Ethereum Fork

――――

September19this scheduledMergeis approaching, and Ethereum is rising, but the upgrade may not go smoothly.

For example, Chandler Guo, a famous Chinese miner, opposes the Merge. If this movement intensifies, the Ethereum blockchain may fork, that is, split into two, and the new2PoS chain will treat Ethereum as its native token, while the previousPoWchain may launch its ownETH PoWtoken. And those who hold Ethereum at the time of the fork could receive theETH PoWtoken for free.

――――

https://www.coindeskjapan.com/156914/

A merge refers to changing the current Ethereum mechanism fromPOW（Proof of Work）POS（Proof of Stake）.

In short,POWminers who profit from it will try to preserve ETH that remains profitable even after fully transitioning toPOS,POWwill be left behind withETHas a separate token.

If the fork is decided, probably a 1:1 distribution ofPOWETHwill be distributed for free.

Well, that would mean that those who already hold Ethereum would get free currency, which could be positive, but the value would be mainly in the newPOSETH, so it is expected to decrease more.It might persist as a meme-like (like Dogecoin) optionPOWETH.Also, people who received POWETH may try to sell before the price falls.The recent rise in the cryptocurrency market is viewed by many experts as driven by expectations for this merge.BlackRock (Asset Management Company) and Coinbase (Crypto Exchange) Partner――――――The world's largest asset manager, U.S.BlackRockhas partnered with the U.S. crypto exchangeCoinbaseto enable institutions to directly use crypto assets.The two firms will combine Coinbase's institution-focused service “Coinbase Prime” and BlackRock's investment management platform “Aladdin” to offer crypto trading, custody, prime brokerage, and reporting features for institutional investors.―――https://www.coindeskjapan.com/156656/

It might persist as a meme-like (like Dogecoin) optionPOWETH.

Also, people who received POWETH may try to sell before the price falls.

The recent rise in the cryptocurrency market is viewed by many experts as driven by expectations for this merge.

BlackRock (Asset Management Company) and Coinbase (Crypto Exchange) Partner

――――――

The world's largest asset manager, U.S.BlackRockhas partnered with the U.S. crypto exchangeCoinbaseto enable institutions to directly use crypto assets.

The two firms will combine Coinbase's institution-focused service “Coinbase Prime” and BlackRock's investment management platform “Aladdin” to offer crypto trading, custody, prime brokerage, and reporting features for institutional investors.

―――

https://www.coindeskjapan.com/156656/

This was very big news.

However, the price impact on Bitcoin did not seem substantial.

Instead, Coinbase's stock price surged.

The expansion of institutional investor financial services is certainly positive for the entire cryptocurrency market.

If this had happened in 2017, given the smaller market cap at that time, it might have caused a huge rally.

Compared to such financial-institution news, news about Tesla accepting Bitcoin for payments or Tesla's Bitcoin investment seems more influential in the market, likely due to the influence of Elon Musk.

Nevertheless, in terms of the amount flowing into the market, this BlackRock influence is likely larger. After all, their assets under management far exceed the cryptocurrency market cap (approximately double Japan's GDP of 5 trillion dollars).