Nakahara Shun's "What Do You Recommend?" Part 3 Updated July 20
State Street (STT NYSE)
Target price 88 dollars
State Street Corporation is a financial holding company. It conducts its business through two lines: Investment Servicing and Investment Management. Through its subsidiary State Street Bank and Trust Company (State Street Bank), it provides a variety of financial products and services to institutional investors around the world. The Investment Servicing business fulfills functions such as clearing, settlement, and payments for institutional investors. The Investment Management business is operated through State Street Global Advisors (SSGA). SSGA offers various investment management, investment research, and investment advisory services to corporations, public funds, and other investors. SSGA's clients include mutual funds, collective investment funds, other investment pools, corporate and public pension plans, insurance companies, foundations, endowments, and investment managers. Headquarters: Boston, Massachusetts.
Market cap: $24,108,456 thousand (7/15) Outstanding shares: 367,115,210 (7/15)
P/E (trailing) 9.00x (20:04) P/B (trailing) 0.88x (20:04)
EPS (trailing) 7.3 (2021/12) BPS (trailing) 74.77 (2021/12)
① Earnings
State Street reported its second-quarter earnings. Revenue came in below market expectations, while earnings per share (EPS) exceeded expectations.
② M&A
U.S. State Street reportedly planned to acquire Swiss financial giant Credit Suisse, according to Swiss news site Inside Paradeplatz, but this was later denied.
(●=11-year cycle, ▲=41-month cycle, △=5.3-year cycle)
(△=21-month cycle, ▲=14-month cycle)
A stock with a very long history, suitable for long-term analysis. A 30–33 year cycle is likely valid, but at least an 11-year cycle has been observed, split into two 5.3-year cycles and a three-part 41-month cycle. The 2009 low during the Lehman Shock is considered a 33-year cycle bottom, and we are currently within the second 11-year cycle of a new 33-year cycle. The first 11-year cycle bottom was in March 2020. The second 11-year cycle may have a center-transitional possibility, but peaks are usually expected at the second 41-month cycle or the second 5.3-year cycle.
From March 2020, the first 41-month cycle consists of two 21-month cycles or three 14-month cycles; the bottom is likely from January–May 2022 for the 21-month cycle, and August 2022 ±3 months (May–Nov) for the 14-month cycle. A 21-month cycle is unlikely to distort, so it is likely composed of three 14-month cycles. This implies the second phase has turned bearish, but it remains within the cycle bottom timing. Since it topped exactly seven months in, if symmetry holds, July–September would be the central timing window.
If we analyze the weekly chart more finely, about 16 weeks of cycles can be observed, but the dominant rhythm appears to be around 7 months ≈ 32 weeks. If this count is correct, the price could fall toward the second week of September, unless shortened by long-term cycle effects; however, the time frame (24 weeks) is already ripe for a bottom to occur at any moment.
Plan to accumulate through September;
Targets: ① 73 ② 88 ③ 100.
【Kahara Shun Profile】
“Weekly Shun Nakahara Report” published every Monday.
Grandfather made his fortune in Sony and his mother in Pioneer; a family of traders.
With over 20 years of market experience, he is a renowned genuine trader familiar with strategies of Larry Williams and Tom DeMark, and his techniques are widely acknowledged. The “Gann theory” contains a number of elements that cannot be taught openly, and in the United States, there are many Gann seminars whose tuition is high. Nakahara is known as one of the few Gann theory researchers in Japan who have attended these seminars. He is also famous for rarely appearing in public.
