Cryptocurrency Market Analysis [May 17]
Cryptocurrency Practical Investment Article May 17
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【Cryptocurrency Market Analysis】
Price changes of cryptocurrencies since last week
(one week) are summarized as follows
Display: Current price (increase/decrease since one week ago)
Bitcoin400万円:-%
Ethereum270000円(-7.7%)
Binance Coin40000円(-%)
Ripple56円(-13%)
Solana7300円(-11%)
Cardano75円(-5%)
Polkadot1450円(3%)
Avalanche 4500円(-19%)
Uniswap691円(-12%)
ICP 1114円(-14%)
Bitcoin was around 4,000,000 yen last week, but it dropped from that price to nearly 2,000,000 yen before rebounding, and this week it has returned to the same 4,000,000 yen level as last week.
Bitcoin chart
The temporary large drop on May 12 has led to speculation that it might be a sell-off climax (selling climax). What do you think?
Nevertheless, the rebound after that decline has been sizable, as one would expect for Bitcoin.
This is because there are many investors who want to buy when prices fall significantly.
Looking at the chart, it seems the low-price band from May–July 2021 is being watched. The current price is also staying within that zone.
If it falls below this, it may enter a harsher winter phase.
From 2020 to 2021, the cryptocurrency market was on an upward trend.
However, even among those who entered the market during that time, many will likely be carrying losses with the current decline.
Many may be quietly observing the current situation, but instead of looking only at the current price, consider what value Bitcoin may hold in the future.
For Bitcoin, whose supply is limited, consider what function it will serve during inflation of fiat currencies (yen or dollar) in the future.
I think it is important to think carefully about future trends.
That may lead to the next investment decision.
【Avalanche being sold off】
This week’s crash was triggered by the stablecoinUST(price tied to the dollar) andLUNAissued by the Terra Foundation.
The Terra Foundation has been buying Bitcoin as reserves and then purchasing Avalanche.
USD andLUNAmay have led to selling theBitcoin and Avalanche that had been accumulated as part of the stabilization efforts, causing a major drop in these currencies.
This week, Avalanche (AVAX) is down nearly 20%.
However, Bitcoin remains at rebound levels, the same as last week. This is because there are many investors who want to buy more Bitcoin when prices fall.
In Avalanche’s case, its market capitalization is not as large as Bitcoin’s, and it suffered a large drop, but Terra Foundation had originally selected it as a suitable reserve currency, and investors who had hoped to buy AVAX at low prices see this as a buying opportunity.
When the assets you hold drop significantly, it is natural to feel that your wealth is shrinking and you may not want to watch the trend (I feel the same).
Understanding this market psychology clearly can reveal opportunities as well.
【Regarding the timing of Ethereum’s major upgrade】
The major upgrade to EthereumETH2.0.
There is no fixed schedule yet, but a cryptocurrency research newsletter author named Coffee has made the following forecast.
https://bspeak.substack.com/p/ethereum?s=w
・Mainnet of Ethereum 2.0 → August
and until then, the testnet will be running.
After Ethereum upgrades,
- ETHsupply will become scarcer
- 2.New ETH issuance will go to holders (validators) rather than miners
and thus, by reducing supply in conjunction with the shift fromPOWtoPOS, value is likely to rise.
Ethereum’s issuance is not capped like Bitcoin, but it seems there is a plan to cap it annually.
Ethereum has a significant influence on the overall cryptocurrency market ecosystem.
DeFi,NFT,GameFi, currency issuance, etc.
It is not certain that prices will rise immediately after Ethereum 2.0, but it is one of the major future events.