Crypto market analysis [April 12]
Cryptocurrency Practical Investment Article April 12
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【Cryptocurrency Market Analysis】
The price fluctuations of cryptocurrencies since last week
over the past week are summarized as follows
Display: Current price (change from one week ago)
Bitcoin5,000,000円(-12%)
Ethereum380,000yen(-11%)
Ripple89yen（-12％）
Cardano121yen（-19%）
Polkadot2,200yen（-19%）
Binance Coin51,000yen(-6％）
Solana13,300yen(-17%)
Avalanche 9,600yen(-17%)
Uniswap1,170yen（-17%）
ICP 2,000yen（-22％）
Bitcoin has fallen from the 5.4 million yen level last week and is currently in the around 5 million yen price band as a key level.
Bitcoin chart
Prices like 5,000,000 yen are quite noticeable because they are round numbers, which is a feature of the chart.
The price temporarily rose to 6,000,000 yen and then returned to 5,000,000 yen; this price band has been the upper bound of the range until late March.
If this breaks downward, it will be interesting to see whether it enters another range-bound phase, or if it rebounds upward.
Also, the 200-day moving average (red) broke down to the downside last week.
Regarding Bitcoin, there is growing view that in the near term it may test a bottom for now.
BitMEXfounder Arthur has the following view.
・“Cryptocurrencies are currently in a market where debt-based, non-free risk assets move in tandem with advanced market equities, like bonds.”
・“NDX (Nasdaq 100) and all durations, assets that benefit from falling interest rates, will similarly benefit as rates fall.”
Thus, in the near term there is a possibility of testing a price bottom; if correlations such as with Nasdaq 100 break down, Bitcoin might rebound from the bottom, according to this view.
The tightening of monetary policy may be increasing the correlation between cryptocurrency markets and stock markets; when this correlation breaks, that could be a rebound for the cryptocurrency market.
Also, Arthur seems to anticipate a bottom near the 2021 low of around 28,500 dollars per BTC (about 3.5 million yen).
From a dollar-denominated view, the amount looks small, but in yen it feels large due to the yen's depreciation against the dollar.
For Japanese nationals who hold most of their assets in yen, this should be a cause for concern...
【Risks of the asset called the Japanese yen】
※ Crypto refers to cryptocurrencies
As already discussed, a large portion of Japanese citizens hold assets in Japanese yen.
Many may be saving to increase their assets, perhaps more than investing in other assets.
There are opinions that it might be better to view what you own as investments in yen itself.
Reference Tweet
https://twitter.com/shingen_crypto/status/1512629205460082688
There are articles stating that Japanese people keep most of their money idle in banks despite zero interest rates.
https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/77a13deadfabf41c575e7f191eecf82d5a41138d?page=3
These articles mention:
・Lack of asset perspective
・Lack of management knowledge
・Performance deterioration due to financial institutions prioritizing profits
Thus, for many Japanese people, investing equals risk, and simply holding yen is seen as a way to avoid risk.
There are various opinions in Shin-gen’s tweets, but in cryptocurrency investments, there is data showing that countries with devaluing domestic currencies (such as Brazil) hold higher proportions of cryptocurrency; thus, holding your own currency without considering other assets may be common until its impact on assets and prices becomes large.
In such a context, acting with a sense of urgency to protect one's assets seems important to me personally.
【Tesla plans Bitcoin mining】
This is big news.
CEO and Block, Inc. CEO, Elon Musk, announced that Tesla’s CEO is collaborating to plan Bitcoin mining
Mining Bitcoin using clean energy from solar power.
Last week, Tesla’s gigafactory event in Texas drew attention, and it appears that the factory also uses solar power on its roofs.
For Bitcoin, as more companies participate in the network, decentralization increases, and its security improves, while its value is likely to rise.
Elon Musk has been one of the figures warning about currency inflation for several months and is one of the world's richest people.
