Cryptocurrency Market Analysis 【March 1】

Practical Cryptocurrency Investment Article March 1

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【Cryptocurrency Market Analysis】

The price movements of cryptocurrencies since last week

over the past week are summarized as follows

Display: Current price (change from one week ago)

Bitcoin5,100,000yen (20％）

Ethereum341,000yen(15%）

Ripple89yen（11％）

Cardano111yen（16%）

Polkadot1,900yen（13%）

Binance Coin47,000yen(15％）

Solana11,300yen(19%)

Avalanche 10,000yen(27%)

Uniswap1,200yen（23%）

ICP　2,290yen（12％）

Bitcoin rose from about 4,000,000 to 5,100,000 yen, reaching the high around mid-February.

Bitcoin daily chart

Last week, cryptocurrency markets, despite the war starting, continued to fall along with the stock market, and there were reports that it might not function as a safe asset. However, the recent rise clearly seems to be driven by safe-haven factors.

Looking at the current Bitcoin price, it appears to have moved into a range from 4,000,000 to 5,100,000 yen.

Nevertheless, what concerns me is that the low at the end of January (around 3,800,000) and the recent low of 4,000,000 have been rising, i.e., the lows are stepping up.

If this is the start of a new trend, analytically we might expect a rise to around 5,500,000 yen, but given the situation, forecasts remain difficult.

Among currencies I watch, Bitcoin has risen significantly in market capitalization, taking the lead.

This suggests that Bitcoin is being bought substantially as a safe asset.

With Bitcoin, the largest market cap rising by more than 20%, there is more buying of the currency (and trading volume) than for others rising by 20% or more.

Avalanche and Solana have also surged significantly.

【Russia's currency ruble crashes】

As countries excluded Russia from the financial network of the global system known asSWIFT, the ruble fell by about 20%.

As a result, many people withdrew cash from banks in Russia. To support this depreciation, it is thought that authorities may attempt to prevent companies and citizens from selling rubles.

Additionally, Russians living outside Russia faced large exchange-rate fluctuations when converting rubles to local currencies, were able to exchange only at very disadvantageous rates, and Russian-issued credit cards could not be used (likely due to volatile rates making settlements unstable).

Also, when looking at ruble-denominated Bitcoin,

the ruble’s sharp decline caused Bitcoin to surge rapidly.

It is clear that the asset has a strong safe-haven appeal as it climbs toward November’s high price.

This situation, where a developed nation like Russia has caused significant economic losses for its citizens, underscores the importance of diversifying into non-national assets.

Bitcoin is fundamentally not controlled by governments and is an asset you hold yourself.

While governments can strategically freeze accounts at cryptocurrency exchanges, for Russians abroad, having crypto allows exiting through a foreign exchange, paying with crypto-enabled cards, or direct person-to-person transfers and other uses.

The ruble’s decline could lead to selling Bitcoin for dollars or other currencies, locking in gains, and gradually increasing cash holdings.

Those who have long managed such crises and held cryptocurrency may already be quite wealthy.

Back in 2016, Bitcoin was only a few ten-thousand yen, and Ethereum was under 1,000 yen.

【Travelers to El Salvador andBitcoinlaw enacted30%increase; the region was mainly Central America, but now the United States accounts for60%of travelers】

El Salvador, which made Bitcoin legal tender, seems to be seeing an increase in travelers.

Perhaps in the future, tax incentives for cryptocurrency trading could attract investors and blockchain companies from around the world.

Still, El Salvador’s safety appears to be not very good at present, so there may be special districts or a designated city for this, dividing into sections.

The situation suggests we should keep an eye on El Salvador going forward.