Translating the truth about US stock investing by Shigenobu Kawata's "US Stock Investing Course Trained by Media" [Vol.36] dispatched February 28, 2022
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Delivering the Truth about U.S. Stock Investing
Shigenobu Kawada's “Training in U.S. Stocks through the Media”
［Vol.36］February 28, 2022 Release
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＊＊＊Table of Contents＊＊＊
Market Rewind
This Week's Featured Articles
Kawada's Stocks to Watch
Investment Tips
A Walk
What the Ultra-Wealthy Practice: “Private Investment Strategies”
Activity Information
Q&A Corner
Online Salon “Asset Formation School Where Dreams Come True”
An online salon where everyone learns together and inspires each other to succeed in asset formation. It offers member-exclusive seminars that showcase the魅力 of U.S. stock investing and content not fully conveyed by our popular newsletter “Training in U.S. Stocks through the Media.”
Pacesetter to Reach 20 Million Yen
Source: Financial Services Agency, based on asset management simulations prepared by ExeTrust Corporation
Note: The figures above are simulations and do not guarantee future investment results. Fees and taxes are not reflected.
How to read: Projected yield and target year
3–4% for 30+ years: Wrap funds and balanced funds fit here
5–7% even for 25 years: perhaps for non-U.S. stock funds
8–10% for about 20 years: a conservative projection of S&P 500 gains
S&P 500 Performance Track Record (Dividend Reinvestment 1970-2021)
Achieve 20 million yen early with proper risk-taking
Kawada's message is incredibly simple. To reach 20 million yen, have as much of your excess funds work efficiently as possible. For this, it is crucial that participants correctly understand risk and reward (returns). Before reading this weekly newsletter, glance at this table to confirm the correct investment posture.
Now, start the countdown to 20 million yen immediately!
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1. Market Rewind (Feb 21 – Feb 25)
＜Major Indices＞
・Dow Jones -0.1%
・S&P 500 +0.8%
・Nasdaq Composite +1.1%
＝Snapshot Version＝
Monday was a markets holiday, but due to the tensions surrounding Ukraine, the first half of the week saw a sharp decline. After mid-week, long-term yields stabilized and prospects for a ceasefire led to a rebound.
＝A Little More Detail＝
Monday was Presidents' Day, a market holiday, but as Ukraine tensions intensified, Russia's recognition of separatist regions and the announcements of Western financial and economic sanctions led the S&P 500 to fall by over 10% from last year’s peak, entering a correction.
When Russia invaded Ukraine on Thursday, global equity markets fell sharply and commodity prices rose, but the U.S. market rebounded on expectations that monetary tightening would slow.
Hope for ceasefire negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, reevaluation of the U.S. economy and corporate earnings, and the core personal consumption expenditures price index (FOMC’s focus) exceeding market expectations, along with a retreat in long-term yields, also supported the market.
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2. This Week's Featured Articles
A column that selects information useful for asset formation from what I have found, ranks them, and comments from a highly personal viewpoint.
【1】 Nikkei News “Gunfire is a Buy” Money Moves 2/26
Following the market adage “Buy when the guns fire,” after an astonishing rebound on the 24th, U.S. stocks rose again on the 25th.
Investors expanded short positions in anticipation of a market drop. The short ratio of SPDR S&P 500 rose from the high 13% at year-end to the high 16%.
In the SPDR S&P 500, in previous pullbacks, the market bottomed around this ratio near 17%. When a sharp rebound like on the 24th occurs, a rapid rebound-buying surge follows.
From Europe, where energy shortages raise recession fears, investors may move money into U.S. stocks. The role of loose money is also significant. Money remains parked in MMFs (money market funds) at a record high of about $1.6 trillion.
How the Ukraine issue will ultimately be resolved remains fluid. However, from an investment standpoint, geopolitical risk is increasingly believed not to significantly affect the stock market. (NQN New York—Masashi Chō)
【Kawata's Comment】
Among Nikkei Evening Edition’s “Wall Street Roundup” writers, I pay attention to Mr. Chō. I like that he does not overly focus on Tokyo HQ and Japan’s stock market.
S&P 500 Index 3-month chart
【2】 Nikkei News Buffett’s “Stock as a Crisis Play” 2/25
“One should not buy gold or Bitcoin during wartime.” — Markets Insider, a U.S. investment information site, on the 24th quoted Warren Buffett and published such a column.
When Russia annexed Crimea in March 2014, Buffett said“U.S. companies have value. The worst thing is to hold cash in wartime.”
Buffett, born in 1942, bought his first stock at $115 at age 11. With the war intensifying, stock prices temporarily lagged, but later he noted“If I had swapped stocks for gold then, my wealth would be less than one hundredth of what it is now.”
There is a saying: “Buy in times of crisis.” The 24th’s price reversal showed the bold attitude of investors who confront crises.
【Kawata's Comment】
From an asset-formation viewpoint, gold cannot match stocks. I agree with Buffett. Below are a few examples. The relative performance of the S&P 500 and gold depends on the time horizon, but historical analyses show:
① Stock index (excluding dividends) generally outperforms gold in the long run.
② With dividend-reinvested stock indices, stock indices significantly outpace gold.
③ Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway long-term performance far surpasses dividend-reinvested S&P 500 indices.
In the past 57 years, the S&P 500 rose about 300x, while Berkshire Hathaway rose 36,000x. As noted in the article, Buffett chose stocks over gold in his youth. Though his performance is about 120 times higher than the S&P 500, it reflects his exceptional skill.
S&P 500 versus Gold | MacroTrends
Below are relative prices of the S&P 500 since 1928. Up to around 1932, gold was advantageous; from around 1942 to 1970, the S&P 500 gained relative advantage. Inflation-ridden 1970s saw gold win. After that, until around 1998, the S&P 500 led for a long period. From 2000 to 2009, gold led, but the market experienced two major declines, which affected outcomes. Overall, in about a century, the S&P 500 outperformed gold by roughly 2.5x.
Stock Indexes (Dividend-Reinvested) and Gold- 126 Year Chart | Longtermtrends
The black line in the chart is a synthetic price index combining Wilshire 5000 and S&P 500 with dividends included. This index greatly outperformed gold. Other lines show the past 50 years of S&P 500 (dividends not included, red), Dow Jones Industrial Average (dividends not included, blue), gold (yellow), and silver (gray).
The black line has risen about 170x over the past 50 years, roughly the same as the S&P 500’s rise when including dividends. Excluding dividends, the gain would be about 40x, highlighting the power of dividend reinvestment.
S&P 500 Return Calculator, with Dividend Reinvestment
This site makes it easy to compute the performance of the S&P 500 over specific periods.
Public release on February 26, the customary “Letter to Shareholders”
On Saturday, February 26, Berkshire Hathaway’s “Letter to Shareholders” was published. Over the past 57 years, the S&P 500 rose 300x, Berkshire Hathaway 36,000x. This past year has surpassed the S&P 500, but as widely known, over the last 20 years it has only slightly surpassed the S&P 500. Buffett’s amazing feat is that he has fought the market for so long and, despite the company’s enormous size, still outperforms the S&P 500. Truly a superman.
https://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/editorialfiles/2022/02/26/2021ltr.pdf
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3. Kawata’s Interesting Stocks
Introducing stocks that Kawata holds and other U.S. stock information that caught my eye.
This week’s stock
Synaptics, Synaptics Incorporated
Overview
Synaptics was a company manufacturing semiconductors for PC touchpads, mobile device screens, and fingerprint sensors, but recent acquisitions have pushed it into the Internet of Things (IoT) field.
(Figure 1: Products using Synaptics’ semiconductors)
Why it’s attractive
The appeal lies in its changing business through acquisitions, potentially becoming a major player in growing markets.
The company’s transformation began after CEO Michael Hurlston took office in August 2019. Previously, about 80% of sales depended on mobile touchscreens, with Apple accounting for more than half of revenue.
After Hurlston became CEO, there were three major acquisitions. First was the acquisition of DisplayLink, a leading player enabling more peripherals to connect to computers. Second, Broadcom’s Wireless IoT business was acquired, gaining Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, GPS technologies, etc. Both completed in July 2020.
The third was the December 2021 acquisition of DSP Group, a semiconductor company. DSP’s products, when combined with Synaptics’ other product lines, enable new business opportunities.
While strengthening IoT, the company sold low-margin PC and mobile display semiconductor businesses to improve efficiency, boosting profitability.
As a result of these restructurings, IoT sales reached 62% of total in the Oct–Dec 2021 quarter (FY2022 2nd quarter) (Figure 2).
(Figure 2: IoT sales 62% of total in the latest quarter)
Compared with 45% in the Jul–Sep 2020 quarter, growth is rapid, and the company expects IoT to reach 63% in the current quarter (Jan–Mar 2022) (Figure 3).
(Figure 3: Quarterly sales and IoT share trends)
Thus, current results are strong, and by divesting low-margin PC/mobile display semiconductors, profitability is expected to rise further.
In the mid-to-long term, IoT will massively increase data volume, and so will the use of Synaptics’ semiconductors and related products. The so-called 5G communications are led by IoT, and the necessary analog-to-digital conversion in data acquisition, the communications phase, and processing to be user-friendly will rely on Synaptics’ technology (Figure 4).
Synaptics is also focusing on Tiny ML. This embeds AI in devices themselves without relying on host computers, enabling devices to recognize, process, and respond locally. Ultimately devices can act without constant Internet connectivity, enabling power-saving and space-saving benefits. Applications span many settings from smart homes to manufacturing (Figure 4).
(Figure 4: Current and future market image)
(Figures 1–4 are from company materials)
Risks
Synaptics is a fabless semiconductor company with no own manufacturing facilities. The current global semiconductor shortage is largely due to equipment shortages, so while order backlog is high, actual shipments have not yet occurred. If production lags behind market expectations, the stock may temporarily disappoint at its high valuation. Like other tech names, it may be volatile due to general investor sentiment.
SYNA basics (Source: Company data, Yahoo! Finance)
(As of Feb 25)
Stock price $227.63
Market cap $8.64B
Revenue $1.45B
Trailing P/E 64.58x
Trailing yield -----
Headquarters: San Jose, California
Listed: February 2002
5-year price chart
Chart provided by TradingView.com
(This column is for general information purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities)
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4. Investment Tips
This section covers not only investment methods and stock picks but also noteworthy indicators, statements, and social or political developments.
The stock market fell sharply due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but rebounded significantly on Thursday and Friday. The S&P 500 briefly entered a correction, down over 10% from its all-time high, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped more than 20%, signaling a bear market level.
In this issue, we highlight characteristics of this price drop to forecast future market trends.
■ S&P 500 correction (down more than 10%)
The S&P 500 entered a correction on Feb. 23, dropping more than 10% from its peak. Although there is no special meaning to “10%,” it is historically seen as a psychological threshold for a correction.
“Correction” has been measured 58 times since World War II; only about 15 of those cases saw a drop of 20% or more, i.e., a bear market.
Average performance after hitting a 10% correction
1 week later 1.5%
1 month later 0.5%
3 months later 3.1%
6 months later 5.66%
1 year later 10.19%
Probability of positive performance after a 10% correction
1 week later 70.7%
1 month later 57%
3 months later 65.5%
6 months later 63.8%
1 year later 72.4%
S&P 500 Index: 10% Drawdowns in the Last 20 Years
■ Geopolitical risk, does war create buying opportunities?
As a gauge of the bottoming timing for this decline, a Tokyo TV program on Feb. 25 analyzed the timing of past major wars and subsequent stock price movements. All indicated “buy at war onset.”
① Gulf War
Aug 2, 1990 – Feb 28, 1991
Jan 17, 1991 Iraqi air strikes
② Iraq War
Mar 20, 2003, the Allied forces attacked Iraq for about a month due to WMD concerns.
③ Afghanistan War (conflict)
Triggered by the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks; on Oct. 7, 2001, the U.S. began airstrikes in Afghanistan.
Check the 2003 Iraq War era market!
■ This time's major indices decline
The table below shows year-to-date performance and daily ups and downs of major indices. Colors indicate the magnitude of gains or losses.
Ignore precise numbers; focus on color intensity. This time, Nasdaq's indices show more colored areas, indicating Nasdaq’s declines were larger than the S&P 500’s.
2022 YTD
S&P 500 (blue) and Nasdaq 100 (orange) (YTD)
■ February–March 2020 (COVID-19 crash)
The recent shock, amidst rising interest rates and geopolitical risk, is akin to prior major crashes: 2010, 2011, 2015, 2016, 2018, and 2020. Earlier bursts in 2000 and 2008 were far larger, but the market does not expect such extremes this time.
Also, the current drawdown of the S&P 500 was about 14% intraday, so in hindsight it may not be remembered as a severe crash. However, popular high-flying stocks fell sharply, so many investors feel pain.
Below are major indices during the Feb–Mar 2020 crash; S&P 500 fell 34%, Nasdaq 100 fell 28%.
This time Nasdaq 100 declines more than the S&P 500
During the IT bubble collapse from March 2000 for two and a half years, Nasdaq 100 fell 83%. However, in significant downturns outside of that period, there were times when the S&P 500 fell more than Nasdaq 100. There have been no such extreme divergences since then.
Major Nasdaq 100 declines (1985–2022)
Summary
Rules of thumb
＊ A 10% drop in the S&P 500, i.e., a correction, is followed by a high probability of recouping that decline within a year.
＊ A drop of 20% or more (bear market) occurs in about one in five corrections.
＊ In past three wars involving the U.S., stock prices tended to rise after the onset of hostilities.
Current drop: Nasdaq 100 declined more than the S&P 500
＊ Nasdaq declines in the past two decades have sometimes been milder than the S&P 500, except this time Nasdaq 100 declined much more. Individual investors tend to skew toward Nasdaq stocks, so the damage can be greater.
War and stock prices
In the history of markets, geopolitical shocks such as invasions, assassinations, sanctions, and terrorism tend to have short-term effects.
Even after the September 2001 attacks, stock prices returned to normal in 31 days.
After the Tet Offensive during the Vietnam War in 1968, prices recovered in 65 days.
Sustained effects occurred during the 1990 Gulf War (189 days) and the 1941 Pearl Harbor attack (307 days).
Importance of economic conditions
Returns after geopolitical shocks are clearly divided by whether a recession occurs.
① If a recession occurs, the next year’s S&P 500 declines by more than 11% on average.
② If no recession occurs, it typically rises by about 11% on average.
The Fed has been friendly to stocks.
History shows the Fed tends to respond to stock market moves. Given the anticipated rate hike in the upcoming FOMC, a 0.25% increase is more likely than 0.5%. In recent cases, when stocks fell by more than 10%, the Fed paused or reversed tightening. This has kept the S&P 500 from falling too far.
Historical context
Overall, the clock will not return to the pre-1989 Cold War era. Yet, excessive market forces are fueling inequality, and a backlash is evident worldwide.
Will Russia–Ukraine escalate into a global conflict involving China? It may take time to gauge. We appear to be living in a G-zero era where Western influence wanes while emerging economies prioritize domestic concerns. In that sense, past examples do not guarantee future outcomes.
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5. A Walk
◇◇Recently visited stores,movies, museums, books◇◇
～Kumakura Tsuneki’s Chapter～
A contribution by former securities man and avid reader, Kumakura Tsuneki.
No.1 The World’s Easiest-to-understand Book on Interest Rates / Yasushi Ueno
Since the 1980s, financial engineering has evolved to treat all financial products as interest-rate variables, linking them through interest rates as a mediator.
As a result, new financial products like futures, options, and arbitrage have deepened markets and attracted new participants.
Moreover, for corporate finance and investment decisions, discount cash flow (DCF) became standard for valuing expected future cash flows.
This has created a common language between securities professionals and issuers during fundraising.
In this environment, the job of a securities professional for the past ~40 years has been to provide rational, forward-looking guidance rather than making up market-timing calls or relying on fortune-tellers. How do readers respond to this?
Intermission
In today’s financial markets, it’s crucial to understand how important interest rates are and to keep an eye on them in personal investing.
In major urban bookstores, investment basics books occupy large shelves, but there are few introductory books specifically about interest rates.
This is not a definitive judgment, but this book clearly explains the world of interest rates in accessible terms and I recommend you take a look.
Other books that explain the real market for interest rates include “Tokyo Money Market, 8th Edition” edited by Shōtaka (Shōtani) Kato, but that is a technical reference; if you’re interested, I can point you to it.
Itoko’s Meeting: Kanji Shiro
Kana: Itsuki Hiroyuki, born 1932, same year as Ishihara Shintaro.
Unlike Ishihara, he came to Japan after the war from Korea, struggled, and entered Waseda University but dropped out due to financial hardship.
Thereafter, he became a prolific writer and lyricist, publishing bestsellers like Seishun no Mon and Tai no Itteki, and continues to write vigorously.
This book centers on interviews with people from various fields, capturing those “once-in-a-lifetime” encounters.
From Japanese authors to Kawabata Yasunari, Miyako Mori, foreign authors like Françoise Sagan, Henry Miller, Lawrence Durrell, sports figure Muhammad Ali, and beauties like Lauren Bacall and Kiwoko Taichi, all appear.
However, the highlight is without a doubt The Glimmer Twins, Mick Jagger and Keith Richards.
In 1990, when the Rolling Stones visited Japan for the Steel Wheels Tour, this interview occurred—over 30 years ago. Both initially guarded their celebrity image, but Kumakura’s broad range of questions gradually drew them out.
Though brief, tracing the roots and upbringing of these two is nothing short of masterful. After all, Keith Richards even asked Kumakura for his private address and phone number.
Talking with people, listening to them—someone once said “listening power.” This book reminds us that the depth of the listener’s heart is essential to communication.
【Kumakura Noriyoshi】
Joined Daiwa Securities in 1980. Earned MBA from University of Chicago Booth School of Business as a corporate-sponsored student. Worked in Singapore and Hong Kong, deeply involved in Asian business.
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New Series "This is Perfect! All about Asset Formation Using U.S. Stocks"
Introduction
We are launching a series covering essential basics for asset formation. The overall structure is planned as follows:
What era are we living in? Part 1
Independent Japanese people and essential asset formation for independence — Parts 2 and 3
Is the stock market only in the U.S.? Part 4
Differences in Japanese and U.S. stock culture
Features of the U.S. market you should know
Recommended investment strategies – Core and Satellite Investing
Investment strategies for the core portion
Investment strategies for the satellite portion
What should you buy?
Sources of information and investing
Continuing, the column features Makoto Okura’s contributions familiar from our site’s “40-Year U.S. Equity Investment” series.
U.S. Equity Seasonality II
Anomalies
Last time, we used the “S&P 500 Index Seasonal Chart” to outline the broad patterns of U.S. stock market fluctuations. This time, using monthly data, we will delve a bit deeper.
Theoretically difficult to explain, empirically observed market regularities are called “anomalies.” Seasonal patterns are a type of anomaly where certain times of the year show characteristic movements. Using monthly data from 1971 through 2020 (50 years), Figure 1 analyzes such seasonality for the S&P 500.
Figure 1: S&P 500 Seasonality (1971–2020, 50 years)
From this analysis, a few notable features emerge.
First, September returns are negative on average and median, with a win rate below 50%. Then from October to the start of the year, the win rate is higher and average returns are strongly positive. February sees a slight dip, but the momentum recovers toward May. However, from June to August momentum and win rate dip again, potentially reaching a multiyear bottom around September.
In simple terms, “The stock market tends to be cheap in early autumn, then rises through the autumn and peaks around May of the following year.” In trading terms, this could be expressed as “Buy in autumn and sell around St Leger Day.”
Year-round Market Perspective
Here we calculate the deviation of each month’s average return from the annual average, then connect (multiply) them to see what pattern emerges. By removing the upward trend (monthly +0.7%), monthly strengths and weaknesses become clearer, making the U.S. stock seasonality more tangible. That is shown in Figure 2.
Figure 2: Average S&P 500 fluctuations across the year (trend removed)
This graph well explains the market’s classic move: “Sell in May and go away; don’t come back until St Leger Day.” The momentum that was strong through April tends to drop in May, and whether it holds steady through September or turns weak depends on the strength of the market’s upward trend.Of course, this pattern is not a guarantee—timing market moves perfectly is difficult even for professional fund managers. Rather, readers should aim to stay invested over the long term. And if the market deviates from this pattern, adjust your base assumptions by considering current market factors.
The seasonal approach discussed here is not intended to provide precise timing. As noted previously, timing the market is extremely challenging even for pros. The goal is to stay invested long-term.
To that end, it’s important to know when the market is more likely to adjust and to have a mindset to handle it. If you have your own view on market movements, you won’t panic and prematurely dump your positions if a decline occurs.
【Okura Makoto】
From Ehime Prefecture. Graduated from Osaka University’s School of Economics in 1984. Earned a PhD in Economics from Saitama University in 2005. Worked at Citibank, N.Y., Citigroup Trust, and Societe Generale Trust (now SMBC Trust Bank), engaging in institutional investing for pensions and sovereign funds, as well as private banking for high net worth individuals. In 2017, established EagleCapital K.K. in Kyoto’s Higashiyama. CFA charterholder. Certified member of the Japan Society of Financial Analysts.
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6. The Ultra-Wealthy’s Private Investment Strategy
Hiroshi Ichikawa, who provides sales support for IFA-focused services, explains the investment strategies used by the ultra-wealthy in a concise manner.
Continuing from last time, this section covers the four pillars of the “Private Investment Strategy,” focusing on private equity investments in their seed and early-stage phase. In private equity, investing in pre- or early-stage startups is known as “angel investing.”
This is less about asset management and more about investing one’s knowledge and know-how by directly holding shares and supporting the investee along the way.
This time, we discuss the angel investment details and the special tax treatment that is particularly favorable for angel investors.
The Appeal of Angel Investing
There are two main appeals of angel investing.
One: the potential for very large returns. By investing in very early-stage startups, if the company grows and goes public or is acquired, the value can rise from tens to hundreds of times your investment.
For example, Peter Thiel, who founded PayPal and Palantir and is an angel investor, invested $500,000 in Facebook in 2004 and sold for over $600 million at the 2012 IPO. That’s 1,200x in eight years. While that is an extreme case, seed-stage private equity is where such enormous profits can be pursued.
Another appeal is the ability to directly influence a startup’s growth using one’s knowledge and experience. In Japan, startups and founders are relatively scarce. For national growth, more venture companies are needed. As new services from ventures emerge, people’s lives will become more convenient. Additionally, contributing to a startup’s success can enhance one’s own managerial skill, reputation, and network.
Angels are favored by tax incentives
Angel tax incentives are designed to encourage venture investments by offering tax benefits to individual investors in startups. Investors can receive tax relief at both the investment and sale stages.
Tax relief in the year you invest in a venture
You can choose one of two incentives, A or B.
Tax relief at the year you sell venture shares (if losses occur)Losses from the sale of unlisted venture shares can be offset against other gains in the same year, and any remaining losses can be carried forward and offset against gains for up to three subsequent years.
If you have startup management experience or know someone you can invest in directly, you should take advantage of angel tax incentives for angel investing.
If you prefer pure investing, choose smaller amounts and invest cautiously after careful screening.
Within private equity, early-stage investments are less attractive than investments in more mature companies. Next time, we will cover that.
【Ichikawa Hiroshi】
Investing to become ultra-wealthy: private equity strategies
CEO of Winviser Co., Ltd. After working in asset management consulting at SMBC Nikko Securities in Ibaraki, Fukuoka, and Tokyo, he shifted to marketing financial products for ultra-high-net-worth clients. He later formed an IFA-focused support company to help the industry grow and now provides a third opinion on asset management for individual investors alongside supporting IFAs.
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7. Future Activities
◇ Stock Voice: March 2 and March 16 (Wed) at 11:00–
◇ Nikkei CNBC: March 9 (Wed) around 8:15 a.m. (telephone interview)
March 29 (Tue) Studio appearance
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8. Q&A Corner
A break. We welcome your questions.
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