The Truth About U.S. Stock Investments: Shigeno Kawada's "Training in U.S. Stock Investing Through the Media" [Vol.30] delivered on January 10, 2022
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The Truth About US Stock Investing
Kawada Shigenobu's "Training in US Stocks Through the Media"
［Vol.30］ Distributed January 10, 2022
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*** Table of Contents ***
Market Review
This Week's Featured Articles
Kawada's Noteworthy Stocks
Investment Tips
Kawada's Walk
Activity Information
Q&A Corner
No issue published on January 31
Target to 20,000,000 yen
Source: Financial Services Agency; asset management simulation prepared by Exetolast Co., Ltd. based on the simulation
Note: The figures above are for simulation purposes only and do not guarantee future investment results. Fees and taxes are not included.
How to Read: Assumed Returns and Target Years
3–4% over 30+ years: this is typical for wrap funds or balanced funds
5–7% even then takes about 25 years: this is for stock funds outside the US
8–10% would take around 20 years: this is a modest projection of the S&P 500's rise
S&P 500 Performance Historical (Dividends Reinvested, 1970-2021)
Achieve 20,000,000 yen early with proper risk-taking
Kawada's message is extremely simple. To achieve 20,000,000 yen, let as much capital as possible work efficiently. For that, it's crucial that participants understand the meaning of risk and reward correctly. Before reading the weekly newsletter, glance at this table to confirm the correct investment posture.
Now, let's start the countdown to 20,000,000 yen right away!
Online Salon "Asset Formation Academy Where Dreams Come True"
An online salon where everyone learns and inspires each other for asset formation. It offers member-only seminars that cover more than the popular newsletter "Training in US Stocks Through the Media" and allow you to experience the魅力 of US stock investing.
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1. Market Review (January 3–January 7)
・Dow Jones -0.3%
・S&P 500 Index -1.9%
・Nasdaq Composite -4.5%
= Quick version =
The start of the year saw a risk-on/risks-on sentiment pushing stocks higher, but after the minutes of the December FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) were released, bets on tighter monetary policy increased, pushing long-term rates to multi-year highs and weighing on sentiment, leading to declines.
= A bit more detail =
Driven by rising rates, bank shares rose and Tesla led the Nasdaq, aiding a Monday rally that sent the Dow and S&P 500 to new record highs. However, the FOMC minutes released on Wednesday indicated a stronger-than-expected tightening stance by the Fed, sending long-term yields higher. In Friday’s December jobs report, while nonfarm payrolls rose less than market expectations, improvements in unemployment and accelerating wage growth suggested ongoing labor-market tightness, pushing long-term rates into the 1.8% area for the first time in about two years. Stocks, sensitive to higher rates, sold off, with growth stocks particularly hit, driving Nasdaq lower.
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2. This Week’s Picked Articles
A column that selects and ranks information useful for asset formation from what I find, with my personal, private comments.
【1】Nikkei NewspaperThe Growth Future (4) Will the “Social Elevator” Move? Can we see the future we aim for 1/5
Inequality can be a motive for a better future, but if it becomes fixed, it can lead to despair and resignation. The key is whether we have a goal and a sense of progress to overcome inequality.
The “Social Elevator” is a measure/critique of the difficulty of overcoming inequality:
The number of generations required for the bottom to reach the average income
7 generations: China, India
6 generations: France, Germany
5 generations: UK, US
4.5 generations: OECD average
4 generations: Japan
3 generations: Finland, Norway
Japan takes 4 generations (over 90 years)
OECD average (4.5 generations) is shorter, but Toshikuni Tatsugorō, Emeritus Professor at Kyoto University, notes that “the overall decline is more problematic than the size of the inequality.”
Growing low-income segments
With slow growth, wages have not risen for about 30 years, and low-income households have grown. In 2018, households with annual income under 4 million yen accounted for about 45% of all households, up nearly 5 points since 1989. Japan’s problem stems from the harms of egalitarianism. There is little momentum to nurture highly capable talent, while support to lift those who fall behind is insufficient. If people cannot hope to grow and improve their lives, the motivation to overcome inequality wanes.
ReferenceIs the social elevator broken?
【Kawata Comment】
The United States, founded to escape Europe’s rigidity, still has significant barriers of race and religion. In contrast, post-Meiji Japan had comparatively thinner barriers of class and caste versus other nations.
OECD’s survey shows that it takes four generations for the poorest in Japan to reach average income. If one generation is 30 years, the great-grandparent would have acted with intention and my generation would finally catch up to average.
The reality of the “Social Elevator” that we experienced
Few of our parents’ generation attended university. Yet after we entered university in the 1970s, more people aimed for higher education. Many classmates from junior high entered technical or commercial high schools, but more then went on to college. And more people joined large lifelong-employment firms. Therefore, during the high-growth era, incomes rose and standardization progressed, often described as the “era of all-in-middle-class.”
However, wages have not risen in the 30 years since the bubble burst. This likely led to a tiered, quasi-caste system: permanent vs non-permanent workers, etc., with income gaps widening and a certain degree of locking-in. In addition, DX (digital transformation) has increased job opportunities inequality and income gaps, a trend that the post-COVID era has sharpened.
Japan’s Uniqueness
Yet Japan’s uniqueness should be noted. Even with four generations, until a certain postwar period, it was possible for some people to reach the upper echelons in two generations. The driving force is largely “education” and “university prestige.”
However, to gain talk of “education credentials” you need parental awareness and financial capacity. Perhaps during the high-growth period before 1989, this could be somehow managed.
But in the past 30 years, except for extremely famous universities, the value of education has been exposed as having “sham” to it.
Even so, our generation could still join top companies and benefit from lifelong employment. In that case, funding for children’s education would be manageable, and if values were successfully internalized, they could offer their children an option to stay within the same social stratum.
“Domestic elevator” within the下降 of the global social elevator
However, across Japan, people are becoming poorer in relative terms as a society. And in the next generation, the global social elevator for Japan is likely to continue its gradual decline.
How can the values that push one to aim for the higher floors inside that domestic elevator be cultivated successfully? If left alone, one might end up in the lower levels.
Parents instinctively wish their children and grandchildren to be richer and happier than themselves. That kindness can be a great burden when viewed through their children and grandchildren’s values. “Well, maybe. A child’s or grandchild’s life is theirs (by the way, I have no grandchildren, just to be clear).”
This is my observation. How do you analyze this?
Message here
“Asset formation using US stocks is a parent’s instinct”
【2】Revolutionary Lenin: The Man Who Changed the 20th Century - The Profilers: The Life of Dreams and Ambitions - NHKFirst air date: 2021-01-14
“Lenin, who founded the first socialist state, the Soviet Union, was born to lower nobility in the Russian Empire and joined revolutionary movements to pursue a utopia for peasants and workers. After family bereavement and persecution, he fled abroad and then fought in the Russian Civil War. Lenin, the iron man, would not stop the revolutionary movement even when blood flowed. In private life he valued his wife and his mistress, laughed often, and lived simply. What utopia did Lenin dream of? Looking back on his life in 2021, the 30th anniversary of the Soviet collapse.”
【Kawata Comment】
Related to the above topic, I found this TV program during the New Year holiday and found it interesting. It depicts a man who fought against the harsh and irrationality of class society. He started a revolution for the benefit of peasants who sought openness, but later even pointed a gun at those peasants. There are always those who oppress and those who are oppressed in any era. Reading the “Social Elevator” article reminded me of this program.
【3】Nikkei NewspaperBeyond the Corona Crisis (3) Talent “Autarky” and Hampering QualityKatsuhiko Karita, Oxford University Professor, 1/6
Between 2007 and 2017, among 40-something male and female workers considered the core of the working-age population, the number with a university degree increased by about 1 million. Meanwhile, Japan’s productivity and real wages stagnated. The key lies in the exchanges and competition within Japan’s human capital market.
Global market
In the job market that graduates enter, job seekers compete across borders for roles commensurate with their abilities, and employers compete to attract high-quality talent with wages and treatment, especially opportunities to demonstrate abilities. If competition arises over quality,employers’ productivity rises in step with corporate productivity, generating profits that reflect in compensation.
Japanese market
Characteristics of Japan’s human capital market: Most entrants to university and first-time employment are Japanese. Regardless of how fierce the competition for admission, the exchange for success at exams is not necessarily high-quality education, but symbolic goods such as the prestige or status of the university.
(Japan’s labor market) does not create a cycle that raises the value of human capital
First, entry into the market is closed, and
Second, as a by-product, those symbolic goods such as university and company “rank” become the object of exchange in the market.
In the fresh graduate employment market, after becoming a regular employee, in-house labor market rewards for status rise gradually with time, and opportunities to demonstrate ability accrue over years, requiring conformity to the organization.External entrants threaten competition, but do not cause large pay gaps.
To break out of this cycle, the structure of exchange and competition must be redesigned. It is not advantageous for Japan to transition all at once to a global talent market. To reform this system in a way that differs from neoliberalism, it is necessary to diversify human capital markets by increasing heterogeneity, including gender, age, nationality. Being wary of heterogeneity and prioritizing domestic security and the stability of a few will not achieve this; it is a post-COVID challenge for Japan.
＜Points＞
○ Even with higher education, Japan’s labor productivity does not rise
○ The closed nature of human capital markets affects non-regular workers too
○ Do not settle domestically; raise the heterogeneity of talent
Kariya, Takeyuki, born 1955. Northwestern University PhD. Specializes in contemporary Japanese society and sociology
【Kawata Comment】
I too experienced the behavior principles of large-company employees at the brokerage where I worked. My thoughts at the time were:
① Among 139 university-graduate men who joined Daido Securities, how many would become officers, vice presidents, or even president?
② If so, by what criteria would promotions be decided?
③ If you participate in the promotion game, what qualifications are required, and what must you sacrifice?
④ If you don’t participate, what options for self-actualization inside the company do you have?
I spent more than ten years after joining contemplating these questions. During that time, I analyzed and interpreted the eligibility and selection criteria for the promotion game, then compared them with my own values and decided to resign. I think it was a good choice.
【4】Nikkei NewspaperSpend Wisely with PDCA1/4
Over the past two years, Japan’s policy operations raised many questions. In 2021, which fell into negative growth twice on a quarterly basis, clearly lagged behind the United States and Europe in recovery from the same disaster.
Why did the gap widen? Research by Yasuke Nakata, a Tokyo University associate professor, focusing on people’s values is interesting. “Moving the economy a little more” and “tightening infections a little more” become a trade-off under certain conditions, and how to balance reflects society’s values.
With that premise, calculating how much economic sacrifice Japan would be willing to incur to reduce COVID-19 deaths by one, the result is about 2 billion yen; the United States about 100 million yen, the United Kingdom about 50 million yen. (Nikkei Morning Edition “Economic Classroom” dated December 3, 2021). The vast difference suggests Japan’s economic stagnation is understandable.
【5】Against COVID-19, the Value of Nations: Oka Masaya Prize Recipient’s Paper
Below is the Nikkei’s “Economic Classroom” article from December 3 of last year cited in 【4】.
Yasuke Nakata, Associate Professor, University of Tokyo
Nakata, Taisuke — born 1980. PhD, New York University. Specializes in macroeconomics. Former Chief Economist at the Federal Reserve Board.
When estimating how much economic sacrifice would be needed to reduce COVID-19 deaths by one, there are large regional differences.
Japan is about 2 billion yen, Australia about 1 billion yen, the United States about 100 million yen, the United Kingdom about 50 million yen, with regional differences such that Tokyo and Osaka are about 500 million yen, but Tottori and Shimane prefectures exceed 50 billion yen.
Even if the calculations seem cold and ruthless, the concept of “statistical value of a life” has long been used in policy.
In Tottori Prefecture, GDP fell by about 7% (about 1500 billion yen) among the 5 accumulated deaths, while in the United States, GDP fell by about 4% (about 90 trillion yen, about 600 times larger) among more than 700,000 accumulated deaths. Regardless of method, differences in constraints and, importantly, differences in values explain regional differences.
【Kawata Comment】
Japan has far fewer COVID-19 deaths relative to population. COVID-19 International Comparison. But that came at the cost of economic activity.
Economic recovery may be slow and stock rebounds modest, but this reflects the national consensus; this is the Japanese choice.
This recalls the phrase“Human life is heavier than the Earth”. This was said by Prime Minister Eisaku Sato when the hijacking of a Japan Airlines plane to Dhaka occurred in 1977, where criminals demanded ransom and the release of their colleagues held in Japan. He said it then.
While researching, I found this essay. It tells a part of what it means to be Japanese, which we sometimes sense unconsciously.
【6】Is Human Life Heavier than the Earth?
“Human life is heavier than the Earth”—Autumn 1977. When hijackers demanded ransom and the release of detained accomplices, Prime Minister Nobusuke Kishi (note: there is a historical mismatch here; in the original, the referenced prime minister is Fukuda Takeo) accepted their demands and exercised “extra-constitutional measures,” declaring that human life is heavier than the Earth. This is the quote.
(Excerpt) Is human life truly more valuable? In the era of those born in the early Shōwa era, even 30 years ago, our lives were said to be “one penny and five rin” (the current stamp is 63 yen). In wartime, a single summons could conscript people into the military, and the summons got a red color, hence called “aka-gami” (red paper). People were drafted by that one-penny-five-rin stamp.
This issue lingered in my mind, and for nearly 30 years I wondered, is human life really that valuable? Recently, however, there seems to be a decline in belief that human life is heavier than the Earth. I think many Japanese no longer truly believe this. I feel the essence of this phrase is less about ideology and more about human vanity.
Hajime Mizuno (Mizuno Hajime, December 9, 1927 – May 2019) was a Japanese journalist and medical critic.
【Kawata Comment】
I knew Mizuno as a media figure, but I didn’t pay attention to his background. I happened to come across him online, and found his remarks insightful, so I included them.
Putting a price on human life is not a Japanese habit, nor is it a policy with broad support. Yet in article 【5】, from the view of the “statistical value of life,” Japan’s life is extremely valuable in the context of COVID-19.
In governing a nation, one should calculate even life economization using the “statistical value of life.” However, the government’s response this time seems easier to understand when viewed through the lens of “votes” over “lives.” I believe that is the correct action.
By the way, my grandfather and father both belonged to the group that said “one penny-five rin for life” (the current stamp is 63 yen). They would likely place greater weight on votes than on life in today’s context, but their era had a much cheaper price on life. Reading Mizuno’s essay made me reflect on my grandfather’s regrets.
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3. Kawata’s Interesting Stocks
In this section, I will introduce stocks I am paying attention to, including information on U.S. stocks from my holdings.
This Week’s Stock
Zebra Technologies ＜Ticker: ZBRA＞
Zebra Technologies Corp
Overview：
A world-leading company in barcode scanners and RFID devices. The company has offices in 128 locations across 54 countries and serves a wide range of customers including e-commerce companies, retailers, manufacturers, warehouse operators, logistics firms, healthcare, and government sectors.
(Excerpt from company materials, Exequire Trust produced)
The company’s appeal：
Zebra Technologies, in one line, is a company that supports the efficient movement of goods and people.
For example, in current e-commerce operations, orders come online, with customer data transmitted directly to the warehouse. The warehouse uses this data to locate products on shelves and pick them efficiently. When items are packed, labels with shipping destinations are affixed and loaded onto trucks at the shipping dock.
Looking at Zebra’s products (services) in this scenario, RFID tags on inventory items identify location, a durable hands-free device streamlines picking, and barcodes or RFID data on destinations facilitate shipping. Behind these are various software systems.
As in this example, Zebra provides products and services that enhance efficiencies across many business activities. In addition to warehouses, real-time inventory checks in stores become feasible, and services like online ordering for store pickup are also targets for efficiency gains.
One of Zebra’s attractions is that, as technology evolves, efficiency gains can extend beyond retail to manufacturing floors, medical environments, public services, and virtually every sector. As the movement of goods and people becomes more data-driven, more places can utilize these insights to improve operations, expanding Zebra’s business opportunities.
Another attraction is the company’s strategy of broadening its services through strategic acquisitions. As summarized below from Zebra’s acquisition history, Zebra has acquired companies involved in equipment and data processing related to movement of goods and people, enabling new services.
Zebra Technologies’ Acquisition History(Excerpt from company materials)
1969: Founded
1986: Renamed to current corporate name
1998: Merged with Eltron International, a provider of desk-top printers/ID card printers
2000: Acquired ComTec Information Systems, a wireless mobile printer company
2007: Appointed current CEO; acquired WhereNet, a location information system
2013: Acquired Hart Systems, an inventory-tracking system
2014: Acquired Motorola Solutions’ enterprise business unit
2015: Acquired ITR Mobility (iFactr)
2018: Acquired Xplore Technologies Corporation (rugged tablets) and Temptime Corporation (healthcare temperature monitoring solutions)
2019: Acquired Profitect Inc. (analytical solutions for packaging industry) and Cortexica Vision Systems, Ltd. (B2B computer vision AI)
2020: Acquired Reflexis, providing intelligent workforce management and communications solutions for retail, food service, hospitality, and banking sectors
Through these services, Zebra’s offerings contribute to competitive advantages that go beyond mere inventory-management equipment. In Q3 2021, gross margin was 45.1% (year-ago 43.8%), EBITDA margin 21.7% (year-ago 20.3%), reflecting high profitability. Recurring revenue from service and consumables adds to its appeal.
(From Q3 2021 earnings materials: above are net sales*, domestic revenue growth*, gross profit*, gross margin*, operating costs*, EBITDA*, EBITDA margin*, and non-GAAP diluted EPS. * denotes adjusted figures by the company)
Risks
Although acquisitions have largely succeeded, there is no guarantee of continued success. In highly competitive areas, acquisitions can temporarily compress margins. However, Zebra’s strong balance sheet with over $300 million in cash and a low debt ratio supports ongoing acquisitions. While the company remains competitive, no industry is truly oligopolistic, and continued product and service development is essential for growth.
Also, as a growth-company with a premium valuation, there can be significant short-term price movements.
ZBRA Basic Data (Source: Company Data, Yahoo! Finance)
(as of January 7)
Share Price $530.86
Market Cap $32.8B
Total Revenue $4.44B
Estimated P/E 30.5x
Trailing Yield -----
Headquarters: Lincolnshire, Illinois
Public since: August 1991
5-Year Stock Chart
Chart provided by TradingView.com
(This column is for general information only and does not constitute an invitation to buy or sell any securities)
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4. Investment Tips
(This section is on a break this week)
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New Series“All About Asset Formation Using U.S. Stocks”
Introduction
This time I start a series that covers the basics necessary for asset formation. The overall structure is planned as follows.
What era are we living in? Part 1 of 2
Self-reliant Japanese and asset formation essential for independence—Part 1 of 3
Is the stock market only in the U.S.? Part 1 of 4
Differences in stock-market cultures Japan vs U.S.
Key characteristics of the U.S. market you should know
What is the S&P 500?
Why is the U.S. strong?
Recommended investment strategies—Core and Satellite investing
Core part investment strategy
Satellite part investment strategy
What should I buy?
Information sources and investing
Episode 5Key features of the U.S. market—Part 3
Monetary tightening and stock prices
■ U.S. 10-year Treasury yields (past 40 years)
Over the past ~40 years, long-term rates have generally trended downward.
Policy rate: FF rate (since 1954)
Red circles indicate tighting phases.
Stock performance after tightening
Rate hikes are often said to be headwinds for stocks, but they did not necessarily lead to a clear decline in stock prices.
In the most recent decades, after rate hikes, the three-month performance has been weak. However, over longer horizons, they provided buying opportunities. The average performance 6 months after a rate hike is 7.1% (86% probability of an increase).
Stock performance after tightening
Despite tightening, the initial two-year performance of a rate-hiking cycle has generally been favorable.
FF rate vs S&P 500 during tightening
The Fed’s tightening reflects normalization of monetary policy with the U.S. economy’s recovery. However, if the goal is to suppress inflation, economic slowdown is likely, so corporate earnings and stock prices may be affected.
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5. Kawata’s Walk
◇◇Recent shops visited,movies, museums, books
“Currency Fiercely Kept”
I read about the first quarter. The narrative structure and meticulous reporting, and the author’s heart-felt depiction of people’s inner thoughts, weave together a vivid portrayal of the times.
This non-fiction book begins in 1985 and covers the lead-up to the Plaza Accord and the Louvre Accord of February 1987, with interviews of participants and detailed analysis of international finance. The timeframe aligns with my study abroad and my first winter stationed in New York.
It describes how global players like the U.S., France, and the U.K. within G7 contexts acted, including Japan and West Germany as participants, considering political backgrounds. The theme is exchange rates and macroeconomic policy. Reading this book helps understand Japan’s prominence at the time.
Today, China stands where Japan did then, but its size and influence are incomparable. Also, during that period the U.S. was under Reagan, and national cohesion and unity were markedly stronger than today.
In today’s United States, would there be calm judgment if tension toward China grows excessively? In that sense, a strong middle class development in the U.S. remains a priority.
“Mrs. Dalloway’s Lovers
I have finished reading. In Amazon reviews, it is said that the bold sexual depictions caused obscenity charges in 1950, but it is not obscene at all. It is a wonderful literary work about a noblewoman seeking to live her own love life in a class-conscious Britain.
I share that view. It reveals how stiff class systems were in Britain not long ago. When class and status differ, there was little crossing or conflict between groups; those boundaries were stark. Today, some say the U.S. is divided, but historically, Britain’s divide was not about disagreement; it was a difference in life itself, living in the same space with different worlds.
Lady Chatterley’s Lover’s husband, Lord Clifford, often explained the state of noble society then. His worldview has been a valuable reference for analyzing current European and U.S. public opinion.
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6. Future Activities
◇ Stock Voice: Wednesday, January 19, 11:00
◇ Nikkei CNBC:
Wednesday, January 19, 8:18 – live phone report
Tuesday, January 25, 10:15 – guest talk (studio)
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7. Q&A
Question
Last December there were six changes to the Nasdaq-100 index. When a company becomes a new constituent, is there an automatic buying pressure once it’s included in the index?
Answer
New purchasing funds are automatically allocated according to the Nasdaq-100 index’s new constituent weights.
If active funds or individual investors assess the value of particular stocks and trade them, that impact will be reflected in the stock price, and new passive funds will be allocated according to the new weights.
On the other hand, if selling pressure arises in passive ETFs or mutual funds, stocks with larger weights will be sold more, according to their weights.
For reference:
About changes to the NASDAQ-100 index – Nikko Asset Management
Besides periodic rebalancing, if a constituent falls out of the index’s inclusion criteria, it will be replaced accordingly.
Periodic constituent changes occur every December and are based on the stock prices at the end of October and the total number of issued shares at the end of November, following these rules:
1) For existing constituents, if within the Nasdaq market’s top 100 by market capitalization, it remains included
2) If there are fewer than 100, include from ranks 101–125, and in the previous regular change top-100 are retained in order
3) If 1 and 2 do not reach 100, include the largest market-cap constituents outside the existing lineup
Additionally, if a constituent begins to trade on a market outside Nasdaq, temporary changes may occur. Since April 2020 there have been six temporary changes, including Zoom Video Communications in April and Moderna in July, reflecting the dynamic nature of this index.
Nasdaq 100 (NASDAQ-100) constituents and replacement criteria – Hoehoe Blog
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