USDJPY 15-minute chart with 10 wins and 1 loss trading example
Hello!
FX research by Satori.
Today, using the USDJPY 15-minute chart, I searched for ideal buy/sell points in the past two weeks of ranging market.
A ranging market means prices rose but then returned to their original levels.
The figure above shows the USD/JPY movement for about two weeks in early November 2017.
From the bottom of 112.946, highs and lows were stepped up for about a week for a rise of about 178 pips, reaching a peak of 114.731, and then from there, as highs and lows were stepped down for about a week, it fell about 164 pips.
In such a movement, what kind of trading would you do?
The N-entry auto-trade EA calculated the ideal near-contrarian trades in the above market as follows.
Using the USDJPY 15-minute chart, take-profit 15 pips, stop-loss 30 pips, 10 wins 1 loss, net +120 pips (for a 10,000 currency unit trade, net profit +12,000 yen).
The above figure is the MT4 report.
Trade lot 0.1
Number of trades 11
Net profit 12,000 yen
Maximum drawdown 3,430 yen
Wins/Losses 10W-1L
Win rate 91.61%
Profit factor (gross profit / gross loss) = 5.0
Average profit 1,500 yen
Average loss 3,000 yen
The figure below shows the details of the buy signal.
With this indicator's settings, when the trend line turns positive, a green upward arrow and an upward line are drawn, but in the EA, while the trend line is turning positive, every time the short-term trade line turns negative, a contrarian buy is executed.
Example of 6 consecutive wins on buys.
The figure below shows the details of the sell signal.
With this indicator's settings, when the trend line turns negative, an orange downward arrow and an upward line are drawn, but in the EA, while the trend line is turning negative, every time the short-term trade line turns positive, a contrarian sell is executed.
Example of 4 consecutive wins on sells.
If the long-term trend line turns positive while the short-term trade line turns negative, buy; if the long-term trend line turns negative while the short-term trade line turns positive, sell. This contrarian trend-following strategy yielded the results above.
This is a case where a contrarian strategy based on Dow Theory worked.
Then, what would be the result on the annual-long term period?
The figure below shows the balance over about 13 years from January 2005, via backtest.
USDJPY 15-minute chart, with 15 pips take-profit and 60 pips stop-loss.
The above figure is about 13 years of MT4 report.
Trade lot 0.1
Number of trades 2,283
Net profit 434,710 yen
Maximum drawdown 44,400 yen
Wins/Losses 1,739W-544L
Win rate 76.17%
Profit factor (gross profit / gross loss) = 1.20
Average profit 1,494 yen
Average loss 3,976 yen
Even with long-term operation, it generally shows a rising trend.
The product includes two EAs: a short-term setting EA and a long-term setting EA, as well as a currency-free and timeframe-free version, totaling three EAs.
The products used in this verification are as follows.
EA
N-entry Auto Trade EA that makes trading decisions and executes trades
Indicator
MT4 Non-repainting arrows and alert N-entry Indicator
Please stay well.
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