Truth about U.S. stock investment conveyed by Shigenobu Kawada's "U.S. stock investment course trained by the media" [Vol.21] distributed on November 1, 2021
***Table of Contents***
Market Review
This Week’s Highlights!
This Week’s Picked Articles
【“Education Plateau: Hates Change” Series】【Methods for Early Retirement Without Regret】【Rising Stock Prices Diminish Work Motivation】
Investment Tips
“Discretionary Management” Fund Wraps, exceed 2 years in 5 years, financial institutions expanding revenue sources
Kadawa’s Walk
About YouTube Live
Activity Information
Q&A Corner
November 29 issue will be a holiday
2,000万円 Target Pace Maker
Source: Financial Services Agency; Created by ExeTrust Co., Ltd. based on asset management simulation
*The above figures are for simulation purposes only and do not guarantee future investment results. Fees and taxes are not considered.
Reading: Assumed Yield and Maturity
If 3–4%, 30+ years: this is the case for wrap funds and balanced investment trusts
Even at 5–7%, it takes about 25 years: this might be the case for non-US stock funds
If 8–10%, about 20 years: this is the more modest rise of the S&P 500
S&P 500 Performance Record (Dividends reinvested 1970-2021)
Achieve 20,000,000 yen early with proper risk taking
Kadawa’s message is extremely simple. To achieve 20,000,000 yen, have as much of your surplus funds work as efficiently as possible. For that, it is important that all participants correctly understand the meaning of risk and reward. Before reading the weekly newsletter, glance at this table and confirm the correct investment posture.
Now, start the countdown to achieving 20,000,000 yen right away!
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1. Market Review (October 25 – October 29)
＜Major Indices＞
・Dow Jones +0.4%
・S&P 500 +1.3%
・Nasdaq Composite +2.7%
＝ Sprint Version＝
Although economic indicators were solid, inflation fears did not intensify, and long-term interest rates fell. The stock market was buoyed by stronger-than-expected corporate earnings, especially for growth stocks, and the three major indices reached new record highs to end October.
＝A Little More Detail＝
Last week, investors continued to focus on corporate earnings releases. Major tech firms reported results, and Alphabet (parent of Google) and Microsoft beat market expectations and were sharply bought, while Apple and Amazon underperformed and were sold after the releases. However, those two also benefited from prior buying pressure, and on a weekly basis rose. The economy showed solid growth without fueling inflation fears, and long-term rates, which had been on an uptrend, declined, providing a tailwind for growth stocks. Biden's infrastructure bill, which was scaled back from the initial plan via tax increases, was also viewed favorably, helping the major indices all-time highs to close October.
S&P 500 Chart — Past Year
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2. This Week’s Big Point!
A column delivering the essential information you should know.
Strong Earnings Environment
Last week also featured continued earnings strength. While results from major IT giants were a mix relative to market expectations, the market, especially Nasdaq, rose without being dragged down by underperforming large-cap tech names. Semiconductors were broadly solid, and Tesla's sharp rise supported the market.
Apple and Amazon, whose market caps exceed 10% of the S&P 500 combined, disappointed expectations. Yet despite these large-cap declines, the three major indices reached record highs on Friday, which bullish commentators said signaled the strength of the uptrend.
On the flip side, bears might attribute it to window-dressing by mutual funds at quarter-end. Whether such moves occurred is uncertain, but as November trading begins today, such buying pressure may subside, potentially worsening supply-demand dynamics.
Focus Shifts from Earnings to Economics to FOMC
Earnings will continue this week, but with major tech earnings behind us, attention will likely turn to key economic indicators and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which could signal the next moves in monetary policy. The earnings rally may pause around now.
On the macro side, October non-farm payrolls will be released on Friday the 5th. The current forecast is a gain of around 400,000 jobs. This has missed expectations for two consecutive months, so another miss could prompt a reassessment of the economic recovery scenario. In addition, the ISM Manufacturing Index (on the 1st) and the ISM Services Index (on the 3rd) are in focus.
The bigger event is the FOMC. Markets have already priced in tapering, but the timing and pace will be signaled in this meeting and could have a major impact. The employment market and inflation trends will be key prerequisites, but the pace of tapering is important for signaling the timing of a future rate hike, which market participants will be watching. As of now, opinions diverge between early 2023 and autumn 2022.
If long-term rates move above last week's 1.7%, the market could enter a pullback. If rates remain stable after incorporating the FOMC and economic data, a steady downside might be limited.
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3. This Week’s Picked Articles
A section selecting interesting information from my sources and ranking them with my personal commentary.
【1】 Nikkei Newspaper: "Education Reform: Against Change" Series
②Educational settings cling to blackboards and paper; will they catch up with a digital society? (10/26)
③Education boxed by rigid rules stifling free thinking (10/28)
④Barriers from within preventing new entrants to education; moving beyond precedent-based thinking (10/29)
⑤Where should the goal of human development lie? Bold future of educational reform (10/30)
【Kawata Comment】
Where exactly are the causes of stagnation and stagnation in Japan? This series seeks education system-related factors. Each article is intriguing. Notable excerpts:
① Professor Nishihiro from Sugamakuen at Tokyo University expresses dissatisfaction: "Do we really need Japanese history and classical Chinese for engineers?"
② Some teachers still prefer paper and pencil and avoid devices. The article also worries about the risk of being left behind by modern trends due to excessive equality.
③ Stifling old rules that box children into narrow frames.
④ Regulations that block new entrants to education; committee members harshly criticize: "It's shallow to train immediately useful talents in universities."
⑤ In 1999, the number of Tokyo University graduates passing the national civil service exams (old Type I) was the lowest ever. The current need is for "diverse and free thinking." This series inspects the education scene to verify those impediments.
■ Mathematics and Japanese in the US and Japan
My daughters study in the US, and much of their education follows the American system. In the US, math is not emphasized as much as in Japan.
We worried about whether they could enter national universities without taking Math II B (required for entrance exams). The eldest struggled with GMAT for a Chinese MBA application.
In our national university path, even humanities students studied Math II B, chemistry, physics, and for science students history and geography. We were taught that broad foundational knowledge supports higher specialization later.
Compared with private universities, many national university entrants took pride in broader coverage.
However, when entering society, the overloading of a person’s capacity can hinder growth. The issue is the lack of proactive leadership and curiosity learned in adolescence.
Meanwhile, the differences between the US emphasis on logic and Japan's emphasis on memorization appear in math and language. US high school students may not be globally top in math on average, but they have many high achievers who forge ahead, often of Asian or Eastern European roots.
Also, top US students often excel less in math but excel in English language and logical composition; this is a hallmark of US education and helps leadership later in life.
■ Noblesse Oblige
By the way, in item ⑤, Ito University alum and former bureaucrat Mariko Saito (Showa Women’s University president) says, "Unlike prewar times, today’s exam elites were taught that studying is for themselves. So Noblesse Oblige and a sense of repaying society are missing."
Ms. Saito is a senior figure at my alma mater Toyama Chubu High School. I’ve seen her at alumni events in Tokyo. She may be a pioneer for a modern, empowered women’s society.
Noblesse Oblige here refers to the Western moral concept that those of higher status have duties for society that correspond to their privilege.
In today’s Japan, there is no formal caste nor a standing army to defend the country. How can Noblesse Oblige awareness emerge here? In my family and in my career, I didn’t see such awareness at all.
Past government officials likely carried this awareness in their work. The bureaucratic class and top corporate leaders in Japan historically bore a similar sense of duty and backbone.
■ What Japan Lacks Without Noblesse Oblige
From reading the "Education Reform: Against Change" series, my proposed remedies include reestablishing social norms and improving English. But I do not advocate this English proficiency for everyone.
■ Rebuilding "Social Norms" is Important
Every advanced society has its core norms and ethics. Western norms are often rooted in Christianity. Japan today is lacking equivalent moral standards. We’ve moved beyond copying the US, causing people to be unsure of the society's direction. Hence the reluctance toward change.
Similarly, the book "The Analects and the Lattice" (Kadokawa Sophia Library) by Eiichi Shibusawa is currently drawing attention for its discussion of norms and ethics. The book likely discusses business ethics in the context of historical and social norms. This renewed interest reflects concern about the loss of norms and ethics.
■ English Is Important Too
Another key instrument for global communication is English. Accessing global information in English and directly communicating with people around the world can help individuals understand their country's strengths and challenges, thus motivating them to consider their own mission and the country's future seriously. If solving issues through foreign languages is pursued, it should not be limited to English alone; direct exposure to different cultures is crucial.
However, in places like Singapore where Chinese speakers adopt English as a public language, it would not be feasible in Japan. And in Hong Kong, education in English for a substantial middle class can create social division. Similarly, in Arab societies with caste-like structures, only a limited segment can communicate externally. These examples are not good models for Japan.
Over 20 years ago, a Chinese executive in Singapore asked me, "Why doesn’t Japan make English its official language?" Considering Japan’s long history and tradition, it’s hard to imagine explaining to a newly independent Asian country in 1965 why Japan uses English.
■ You Need Capacity to Speak English
For many Japanese, achieving English fluency on par with Japanese is unrealistic and costly. If everyone spoke English equally, Japan’s national strength could suffer. I believe so.
Why Japanese People Struggle with English (Iwanami Shinsho)
The idea of allowing highly capable global talent into Japan through immigration is not easily accepted. Is there a universal solution for Japan to avoid isolation? There is no one-size-fits-all answer.
But reality is harsh. Those who recognize the importance of English are actively educating their children. How to position English in Japan is a personal choice. The freedom to choose should be used wisely.
【2】"Barron's D: The Barron's Digest"
Methods for a peaceful early retirement
Only 32% of Americans aged over 65 want to continue working. About 50% plan to work beyond age 62, indicating a decrease in long-term work plans.
Labor force participation of those 65+ fell 8% from February 2020 to September 2021, to 19.2%.
One cause of labor shortages: not only COVID-19, but long-term demographic trends. Older workers often face lower taxes on income, dividends, and capital gains, enabling quicker asset accumulation and earlier retirement.
Diversified portfolio advice: Allocate funds into several "buckets" to cover around five years of expenses with guaranteed income like Social Security, pensions, CDs, and short-term bonds in the first bucket. Next, for years 6–10, aim for 65% stocks and 35% bonds.
【3】 Nikkei Newspaper Stock Market Rise Dampens Labor Motivation 10/30
Also notes that Americans are retiring earlier than expected, and discusses the market impact.
【Kawata Comment】
COVID-19 has kept people away from the labor market. There are various explanations, but a major one is that rising stock markets have enabled many to end work earlier because they have a plan for retirement funds.
Indeed, with stock markets high, many likely have retirement funds in place. As the Bank of Japan’s "Global Flow of Funds—US, Japan, Europe" shows, US households hold a large share of financial assets in stocks and funds. When asset markets rise so high, desire to retire grows. While Americans could use their wealth similarly if they invested in US stocks, many choose not to for various reasons.
For reference
In 2015, at a conference hosted by Panrolling, I spoke on "DVD: The Path to Steady, 10% Long-Term Returns." A photo from that time shows the DVD, which is now sold out. Content remains the same—no real progress!
The subtitle of the DVD is “Why Do Ordinary Americans Retire to Play Golf?" This subtitle captures the current trend of senior Americans towards earlier retirement. In short, it’s about stocks!
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4. Investment Hints
A column that covers not only "investment methods" or "stock picks," but also "indicators or statements that caught my eye" and "social and political developments."
Nikkei Newspaper 10/27
Many firms are pushing fund wraps. This reflects the differing circumstances of banks and securities firms. For example, securities firms are finding it harder to earn commissions through frequent trading of funds.
Moreover, fund-related products face steep competition in fees (sales charges, trust fees), making it hard to earn revenue simply by having clients hold assets. Face-to-face advisory adds value and earns fees tied to assets under management.
However, wraps face ongoing criticism for lack of transparency. The Financial Services Agency's 2021 Progress Report notes that after costs, many wraps underperform balanced funds.
Beyond wrap fees, investors bear trust fees for included funds, often totaling 2–3% annually, higher than typical balanced funds (1–1.5%).
Financial institutions must deliver performance commensurate with costs, or face losing clients who value the face-to-face service of wraps.
Weekly Diamond, Oct 23, 2021 issue
【Not to Buy Financial Products】
Pitfalls of "Wrap Accounts" promoted by banks and securities firms
Even higher costs than mutual funds! Variable and foreign currency-denominated insurance
Insider perspectives from mutual fund executives on global growth stock funds
【Kawata Comment】
Even the respected Nikkei newspaper has a cool view on wrap accounts. The Diamond magazine's feature is also quite harsh. A journalist’s conscience to report the truth may be at work.
The product’s high fees and inefficient management is the core problem. The complexity and lack of transparency make it hard for investors to understand—perhaps deliberately so.
The product’s composition and ongoing costs must be covered by many people’s rewards in the supply chain. The product exists based on the assumption of such fees.
According to the table above,
① Investor returns are abnormally low (around 2% annually, far below risk-adjusted expectations).
② The proportion of negative returns is almost 40%. If you simply bought the S&P 500, negative returns would occur about once every five years.
③ The investor’s final profit (investor return) is less than half of the profit, meaning the distribution is highly unfavorable to investors.
■ Honest Talk with a Mid-Sized Securities President
Recently, I had a candid exchange with the president of a long-time partner mid-sized securities firm. This firm does not sell fund wraps.
I argued that the straightforward path to asset formation is for investors to buy S&P 500 ETFs or funds, paying about 1% of the purchase amount annually as the ideal securities sales approach.
But the president replied, "Investors will not accept that. If there is no proven track record, they won’t pay for it. In other words, if the service has no substance, investors won’t value it."
■ Underperforming due to poor management
"Isn’t it better to let things be and avoid trying to actively manage?" I answered. The president privately thought, "Kawata doesn’t understand the harsh realities of the field." But I do know (that’s why I left the firm).
Nevertheless, the duty of a securities professional is to provide coaching to help a client accompany them toward their goals, rather than chasing market timing or returns. When you try to earn compensation by timing or skill, the client relationship becomes distorted.
By the way, I’ve known this president for a long time. He points out that competition is not functioning in the industry, and that serious corporate effort is not fairly rewarded. The industry’s emphasis on turnover commissions for stocks and funds and the lack of long-term asset-building for clients is lamented.
■ Expectations for IFA from Life Insurance Background
In terms of charging fair compensation for the entrusted assets, life-insurance background IFAs tend to understand sooner, and explain to clients more effectively, achieving better results. Securities salespeople are trained to chase "easy meals" and can quickly exhaust opportunities, which prevents client asset growth and a clear career path.
In contrast, life-insurance background professionals build long-term client relationships and improve client satisfaction. Of course, opaque fee structures for insurance products have long been an issue, which is why many conscientious insurance professionals transition to IFA. I have high hopes for their long-term approach.
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New Series "Perfect! All About Asset Formation Using U.S. Stocks"
Introduction
We’re starting a new series covering the basics needed for asset formation. The overall structure is planned as follows:
What era are we living in? Part 1 of 2
Independent Japanese people and asset formation essential for independence — Part 2 of 3
Are stocks only in the US?
Differences between Japanese and American stock cultures
Key characteristics of the US market you should know
What is the S&P 500
Why is the US strong
Recommended investment strategies — Core and Satellite
Core strategy
Satellite strategy
What should I buy
Sources and investing
Episode 2: Independent Japanese and asset formation essential for independence — Part 3
■ Diversion (Direct Finance, Indirect Finance, and Securities Markets)
Economic agents (households, firms, and government)
Households mainly engage in consumption, and goods consumed are produced by firms. Households pay firms for those goods. Also, households supply labor to firms to earn income.
In return, wages are paid from firms. Households and firms pay taxes to the government, and public services are provided by the government.
Thus, money and goods flow between households, firms, and the government, a concept called the circular flow of the economy. The three act as economic agents in the economy, each with its own role.
■ Why Do Stock Markets Exist?
Some businesses require large sums of capital to operate. The government also needs funds for administrative services and public works. Financing refers to directing surplus funds from those who have them to those who need them, via financial systems.
Among the three agents, households typically have surplus funds, while firms and government often face capital shortages.
There are two types of finance: indirect and direct financing.
Indirect financing
A method where companies raise funds through financial institutions via loans, etc. Financial institutions gather funds and decide where to lend or invest, so the investment risk is primarily borne by the financial institutions.
Direct financing
The government or firms issue bonds or stocks, raising funds directly from investors. Investors bear investment risk directly but may achieve higher returns.
In Japan, indirect financing remains dominant, with banks still powerful. In the United States, direct financing is more prominent in some cases, where the funders and fundraisers transact directly.
Stock investing operates within this direct financing framework, offering returns to investors who bear risk with their invested capital.
That is, firms use funds raised to expand and accumulate capital, distributing the fruits of these activities to stakeholders (employees, creditors, shareholders, etc.).
And US stocks are leader-driven among stakeholders, while in Japan the corporate governance is said to emphasize other stakeholders.
Stock Investing: US Stocks
Now, I have emphasized the advantages and convenience of stock investing for asset formation. Stock markets exist worldwide, but US stocks provide the greatest wealth-building potential for investors. I personally believe in US stocks as the primary investment, though saying that outright may risk misunderstanding. For now, I’ll stop here and continue in the next part. (to be continued)
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5. Kawata’s Walk
◇◇Recently visited favorites (special edition) ◇◇
Last Friday, I held a YouTube Live with IF A Miki Kumagai.Learn from Advisors! Common Misconceptions in Asset Management
This "Learn from Advisors" series is the third installment, and we’ll continue strongly. Next, on Friday, November 12, at 8 PM in Hokkaido, I will host a session with Crest Consulting’s President Kawamura and Yamazaki to discuss "The A to Z of Asset Formation: Five Efficient Ways Anyone Can Use."
Kawamura from the head office in Sapporo is a superb, sharp leader. Yamazaki from the Obihiro office is a highly driven person with a relentless competitive spirit—an impression I’ve formed.
◇◇
In the October 11 issue of the newsletter, Nikkei wrote about "Leader’s Bookshelf: Shimonen Sochi? Yo... Yuko Kawamoto." Kawamoto Yuko - Wikipedia was featured.
In middle school, I especially liked Françoise Sagan. Translation by Asahi Nobuko was beautifully written, elegant and solitary. The Paris scenery descriptions were also very memorable.
ThereforeBrigitte (Brigitte Brag) the Brague — Brigitte Bardot? actually Brigitte Sagan’s works
“Sagan’s writing is very beautiful,” so I read it. A paperback of about 160 pages is convenient.
The story is "An intelligent, beautiful forty-something, a handsome 25-year-old, a jealous middle-aged man. A stylish and poignant, Parisian love triangle. When a woman of delicate psychology writes, Sagan excels."
■ Plot
Paul, a beautiful wife who abandons a comfortable life with her husband to seek something in life, becomes an independent designer with a lover named Roger. Simon, a 24-year-old rich son, falls in love with her. He proposes marriage, but……
A novel that weaves a complex tapestry of love and loneliness in Paris, a fourth long-piece novel with a Parisian fragrance.
■ Preface from the translator
In France, women live longer than in Japan, so women in their thirties are still considered "young women" (jeune femme). But moving from thirties to forties marks a significant turning point as a woman, a kind of farewell to youth. (Excerpt) from Asahi Tomoki
—朝吹登水子
【Kawata Comment】
Sagan wrote this when she was 24. She expresses the feelings of a 39-year-old single woman with such delicacy. Kawamoto met this story in his junior year. What would I have read at 15? Not much due to club activities and studies.
I thoroughly enjoyed Asahi’s prose—the word choices, arrangement, balance of kanji and kana, and rhythm are excellent. However, such romances lack personal experience for me, so I cannot say more!
The original was published in 1959. Without understanding the gender and age norms of Paris’s middle-class society, it’s difficult to interpret the inner feelings of the characters.
At the end, Paula tells Simon, "Simon, I’m an old woman now, an old woman at 25." The protagonist Paul is 39, which seems young by today’s standards. Is this the character’s self-deprecating confession or her attempt to justify a breakup? Either way, 60 years ago French social norms are hard to imagine. In Japan too, mothers would have shared similar norms at that time.
Just a note: Macron’s wife is 24 years younger and was a former teacher.
24-Year-Age Younger Marriage! Reflection on Brigitte Macron’s Forbidden Love (25ans) - Yahoo News
■ How does NHK's "Daruin ga Kita" differ?
By the way, reading such romance reminds me of NHK's Sunday 7:30 PM program "The Darwin Show!"
What? That program teaches children and adults about animal life and nature, and often features male-female relationships to illustrate how life continues. It emphasizes the importance of reproduction. I suspect the program is a catalyst for Japan’s declining birth rate strategies.
I often wonder which animal in the program resembles the three characters in the romance. Oops, that would invalidate my claim to Sagan’s work!
Do animals even have love triangles, affairs, or jealousy? - Penguins, perhaps...
■ Offshoot
This Saturday’s 6 PM newsletter includes a segment about Parisian life—live broadcasting "Missed Paris" on BS. I’d love to travel abroad again. This is called “revenge spending.”
【Purchased but Not Yet Read】
I was drawn to the title and bought it. Skimming, I wonder if you all need to buy it? Perhaps a library skim would suffice?
Top Reviews
"We hear much about a 'gap society.' Yet more than urban vs rural, Tokyo’s 23 wards show the deepest disparities, as proven by data—a wonderful book."
"I wondered about my own area and bought it. It revealed many things beyond my locale; very informative and helpful."
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6. Upcoming Activities
◇ November 2 (Tue) 10:15 AM Nikkei CNBC
This time, Sayaka Arichi is the anchor. She recently returned from maternity leave, and according to the host’s, Shiozumi, assessment, she’s a very quick-witted person. I recommended S&P 500 purchases to her a few years ago, but she may have found more advantageous investments since then.
◇ November 10 (Wed) 11:00 AM Stock Voice
◇ November 17 (Wed) 11:00 AM Stock Voice
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7. Q&A Corner
Question from a wealthy woman.
What value does the IIFA (Financial Product Intermediary) she is dealing with currently provide?
Background
Ms. A is in her 60s and, for about 20 years, complied with a major face-to-face securities firm’s instructions but assets never grew. She found Kawata’s videos online, started studying on her own, and now follows Kawata’s morning videos, newsletters, and online community.
Her assets, including her husband’s, total around 500 million yen. A female advisor B, who previously worked at a face-to-face securities firm, moved to an IFA and transferred much of her assets to an online brokerage designated by B.
Currently, she is rebalancing her portfolio following Kawata’s advice, and recently 70% of her core-satellite portfolio includes GAFA in the core.
A’s Question
Kawata’s morning videos show her portfolio steadily shifting to core-satellite. Now studying through newsletters and the online salon "Dreams Come True Asset Formation School," she cannot see a reason to stay with IFA B; how should she think about this?
Kawata: I’m glad to hear you’ve taken the initiative and your results are starting to show.
B’s job is to accompany A toward her goal, providing coaching rather than merely offering services. If A does not feel she is receiving value, the service may be lacking.
A: I think the issue is that I stopped following B’s advice. The services she claims to offer are:
① No remittance fee kickbacks.
② No notification when funds are credited to the security account.
③ No favorable spreads on currency trades.
Therefore she says my presence is important.
Kawata: That alone shows A has grown.
A: Then is there still value in continuing to work with B? Could I manage with only the online brokerage help desk?
Kawata: If talking with her is not painful, you might just maintain the order-execution relationship. However, her incentive to help A may decrease. How much help will she provide?The online brokerage help desk answers questions but provides no advice or coaching. If you are truly stuck, please let me know. Together we can find a solution. I’m sure we can brainstorm.
info＠kawata-magazine.com.
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