Kawasaki Doraemon-ryu Exchange Rate Weather Forecast | Episode 28, October 4, 2021 edition

In FX, this serial focuses on the temporal element, as presented by Kawasaki Doruemon. As the "Forex Weather Forecast," it shares concrete trading strategies based on a statistical approach.

【Table of Contents】

1. Monthly Weather Forecast (31 currency pairs / AUD-related pairs)
2. Weekly Weather Forecast (October 4–8 / October 11–15)
3. Daily Weather Forecast (October 4/5/6/7/8/10/11/12/13/14/15)

Hello! This is Kawasaki Doruemon.

The Forex Weather Forecast is a statistical data set that derives anomalies from historical exchange rate data and shows tendencies by month and day.
This time, we will introduce the currency trends from October 4 to October 15.

1. Monthly Weather Forecast

First, let's look at the October monthly trend and anomaly.
The table below counts the monthly charts for all 31 currency pairs from 2001 onward.

Because this is hard to read, this time we extract only the currency pairs related to AUD as shown in the table below.

Looking at the monthly count of AUD-related currency pairs, October shows bullish bars for AUD/JPY, AUD/USD, and AUD/CAD 14 times in the past 20 years, and AUD/CHF 15 times, indicating a higher frequency of bullish moves.
14 out of 20 is 70%, and 15 out of 20 is 75%, meaning bullish moves have occurred in the past with these probabilities.

From this, it can be inferred that October has a tendency or anomaly for AUD to be bought.

2. Weekly Weather Forecast

Now, let's look at the weekly statistical data.
The table below aggregates the weekly data for October 4–8 over the past 20 years and calculates the bullish probability.

From the table, the weekly bullish probability for EUR/USD (a dollar-pair) is 67%, for AUD/USD 68%, and for NZD/USD 74%—slightly higher bullish probabilities.

Conversely, for currency pairs involving the pound, such as GBP/AUD, the bullish probabilities are 29%, GBP/NZD 28%, and GBP/CHF 34%; the euro/GBP where the pound is the settlement currency (base currency) is 80%.

From this, October's second week shows a slight tendency for the euro and the pound to be sold.

Next, let's examine the weekly statistics for the third week of October (October 11–15).

Looking at this table, NZD crosses show high bullish probabilities: NZD/JPY 70%, NZD/USD 69%, NZD/CAD 71%; while NZD as the settlement currency in euro/NZD is 19%, and GBP/NZD is 29%—lower.

From this, the week of October 11 onward indicates a slight tendency for NZD to be bought.

3. Daily Weather Forecast

Next, let's look at the daily statistics from October 4 to October 15.

The table below (published for purchasers) is the daily weather forecast data for October 4.