Shocking truths about U.S. stock investment from Shigenobu Kawada: "U.S. Stock Investment Course Trained by the Media" [Vol.16] distributed on September 27, 2021
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Delivering the Truth about U.S. Stock Investments
Shigenobu Kawada's “Training in U.S. Stocks Through Media”
［Vol.16］Distributed on September 27, 2021
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***Table of Contents***
Market Review
This Week’s Headlines!
This Week’s Picked Article【Reflections on the Lifetime Employment System】
Investment Tips【Historical Changes of Top S&P 500 Constituents】
Kawada’s Walk (Book Edition)【Japan is Not a Great Power】
◇◇Recently Watched Film◇◇ 【Film: Silence of the Resistance】Upcoming Activities
Q&A Corner【Personal Experience with Individual Stock Management】
Achieving 20 Million JPY Milestone Pace Setter
Source: Financial Services Agency; Asset Management Simulation prepared by ExeTrust Co., Ltd.
*The numbers above are for simulation purposes only and do not guarantee future investment results. Fees and taxes are not considered.
How to Read: Assumed Returns and Target Years
3–4% for over 30 years: This is what wrap funds and balanced funds can achieve
5–7% would take about 25 years: If investing in non-U.S. stock funds, perhaps
8–10% would take about 20 years: Based on a modest rise in the S&P 500
S&P 500 Performance (Dividends Reinvested, 1970–2021)
Accurately taking on risk to reach 20 million yen early
Kawada’s message is incredibly simple. To achieve 20 million yen, let as much of your excess funds work efficiently as possible. For that, participants must correctly understand the meaning of risk and reward. Before reading the weekly newsletter, glance at this table to confirm your correct investment posture.
Now, start the countdown to reach 20 million yen right away!
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1. Market Review (Sept. 20–Sept. 24)
＜Major Indices＞
・Dow Jones Industrial Average +0.6%
・S&P 500 Index +0.5%
・Nasdaq Composite +0.0%
＝Snapshot Version＝
Earlier in the week, there were concerns about defaults in Chinese real estate groups, which led to selling, but the market rebounded afterward. The FOMC signaled steps toward further tightening, long-term rates rose, yet the impact on the stock market remained limited.
＝A bit more detail＝
Monday saw a sharp drop as risk-off sentiment strengthened due to concerns about Evergrande’s bond payments. However, given expectations that payments would be made, it gradually stabilized, and by the time the FOMC began on Wednesday, the market had recovered. The FOMC did not outline specifics on tapering asset purchases and sounded somewhat more hawkish than before. Equities remained steady, while bonds saw long-term yields rise to levels not seen since early July, influenced by tightening stances of European central banks. Economic data suggested signs of a slowing economy, and cautious remarks about Q3 earnings from Nike and Disney contributed to some share-price declines, but the overall market impact was limited.
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2. This Week’s Headlines!
A section delivering information you should know.
Rebound after three weeks
Last week, the market swung at the start, but U.S. markets ultimately closed higher. From the all-time high on September 2 to the close on Tuesday, the decline was about 4%, and there had been no drawdown beyond 5% from the recent high for 224 days, the seventh-longest such period. The market’s footing remains strong.
China issues not escalating
At the start of last week, reports emphasized risk due to debt problems of Chinese real estate firms. How many market participants truly understand Evergrande’s debt situation accurately? Likely very few.
That’s why it remains a risk, and there could be lasting effects, but it won’t become a financial crisis like 2008. Articles claimed Western financial institutions hold lots of corporate bonds; these are likely part of large asset pools such as pension funds, and even if defaults occur, risk management should absorb losses, preventing a crisis. There should be no related derivatives tied to Evergrande either. In any case, don’t be swayed by such articles into forced selling.
Grasp the FOMC results
More importantly than that, the FOMC results from last week are crucial. Key points are as follows,
Start of tapering decision expected in November (markets had priced in end-of-year)
Zero-rate lift-off moved up to 2022 based on FOMC participants’ projections (previously 2023)
GDP growth forecast for Oct–Dec 2021 revised down from 7% to 5.9% (due to rising infections)
Inflation forecast for Oct–Dec 2021 revised up from 3.4% to 4.2%
The statements suggested “the economy isn’t as strong as expected, yet inflation isn’t falling as much as anticipated, so the tightening stance will intensify,”but the stock market remained calm, and the rebound after selling early in the week pushed prices higher after the FOMC. Chair Powell’s deft communication helped embed this in the market.
Pay attention to monetary policy in the U.S. and Europe
However, although bond markets initially reacted little to the FOMC, long-term yields gradually rose to the 1.4% level, the highest since mid-July. Yields rose further in a market where equity prices are already high, which could become problematic if the ascent continues. In this context, last week’s rate hike in Norway is noteworthy. The market seemed to have priced it in, but the Bank of England also signaled vigilance toward inflation. Because European policy tightening has influenced U.S. markets in the past, more attention should be paid to Western monetary policy than to Chinese real estate concerns.
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3. This Week's Picked Articles
A column that selects and ranks information useful for asset formation from what I have found, and comments with a very personal perspective.
【1】 Nikkei NewspaperWhat is the meaning of job satisfaction (2) Panasonic, support for independence9/20
Summary
The internal entrepreneurship program at Panasonic, which has suffered from long-term underperformance, is the theme.
On the other hand in Japan, there is talk that there is “low social regard” for independent entrepreneurship. Furthermore, corporate internal entrepreneurship is said to be hindered by “excessive interference stifling creativity.”
One reason entrepreneurship is rare in Japan is the employment system, such as lifetime employment. Because one can expect stability until retirement, there is little motivation to leave the company and start a business.
When you think of companies known for producing entrepreneurs, Recruit comes to mind. At Recruit, many employees who aim to start a business leave the company. They are treated as “graduates” and are supported.
【Kawata's Comment】
To put it bluntly, this article deals with a tiny fraction of Panasonic, which employs tens of thousands in the group of companies. Such programs may exist, but they do not solve the fundamental problem. If you are seriously considering this system as a solution to Panasonic's poor performance, that would be a major issue. The management's role should be to take a broader, higher-level view and consider selling unnecessary businesses and investing (acquiring) in growth areas. It would be just one idea of the corporate planning or HR department, I hope.
【2】 Nikkei NewspaperThe “benefits” of retirement at 459/23
Recently, Suntory's chairman Shinzo Yamamoto proposed that “a retirement at 45 should be instituted, and individuals should not rely on the company.” This article uses his remarks as a topic and is amusing but true.
Points
As a white-collar worker, aiming to leave the company around age 45 is just about right.
In a century of life, staying with one company forever isn’t realistic. In fifty years, it is unclear whether the current company will exist.
As you age, individual differences widen. The right prescription is to abolish retirement systems.
The problem lies with the older generation. If they are expelled from the “paradise” that is the company, they have nowhere to go.
【Kawata's Comment】
On the Internet, responses to “retirement at 45” have been pragmatic: “If you are fired at 45, you cannot make a living,” “used for excluding the weak,” “next comes layoff of non-regular employees,” and even critics say it is “backward-looking for a 100-year life era” and that “companies should invest in mid-to-late career development” and “will worsen inequality.”
By the way, I left a major securities firm to join a foreign securities company at age 41. The foreign firm carried high risk with zero job security. However, the bonus was up to half as retirement benefit due to favorable tax treatment. I quit to start my own business at 44.
Shinzo Yamamoto's statements are all correct
Since I worked long in a large corporation, I understand the merits and demerits of lifetime employment. It has an excellent system for skill development, knowledge sharing, and networking. Yet considering Japan's current weakness overseas, some changes are necessary in many business entities.
From personal experience, I can say Shinzo Yamamoto's remarks are all correct. In short, “How far do you rely on the organization?” Lifetime employment worked well for Japan in specific periods and industries, but maintaining it as the best system up to now is odd. The generation that wants to stay in the “paradise” is the middle-aged cohort who resist change.
Below, my residual image of “Lifetime Employment”
“Too many people pushing for a serious contest is unnecessary
When top Japanese companies see employees who have stayed for a certain number of years, they no longer demand “serious” competition. The company has already developed the abilities and will completely掌握 them. Therefore the majority wait for time to pass without adding new value. Here, “serious” competition refers to meaningful involvement in departmental or corporate decision-making and strategic direction.
Young talents who used to argue vigorously internally eventually realize their position as they grow closer to management. Then they battle with a “bamboo sword” from above and wave a “wood sword” below, and run up the ladder of promotion in the company with eyes closed and maximum effort. Only a few successful office workers can do this and be happy.
Most people have long since lost the right to make judgments or decisions and spend their remaining years as loyal internal faction members. As they near the top, they look pale and come home exactly on time, perhaps going to the gym as a reward. This is my “image” of lifetime employment.
Salaried workers, take more risks
Will there be a day when elite salaried workers roam and take more risks inside and outside the company? If so, Japan's economy would gain vitality. To make that work, you must build a mindset from entry into the company that you will eventually “graduate” from a large organization. However, once you step out, you can break free and push forward, and you will stop making excuses.
However, the risk of changing jobs is high for Japanese elites. For foreigners, startups, and entrepreneurship, on average, risk-return is unfavorable. For capable people to change jobs, tax policy and social recognition, i.e., public perception, must change. In my case, I feel saved by U.S. stocks. In any case, I completely agree with Yamamoto!
【3】 Nikkei NewspaperMizuho Bank, Financial Services Agency to manage systems9/22
Mizuho Financial Group's scandals are ugly
Mizuho's scandals are ugly. Since the integration, the confusion has persisted and left a lasting impression. Isn't this also a kind of lifetime employment pitfall?
If mobility and other ways of self-realization outside the career ladder were common, there would be less clinging. From a young age we were taught “there is only one correct answer,” and the doors have narrowed; perhaps they cannot go back now.
Why now, even at this stage, are young employees not revolting for internal reform or leaving the company? There may be some movements, but they should be broader to the point where the company cannot operate; why aren’t there more open protests? By the way, I am a coward, so “an escape > revolution.”
Japanese large corporations punish those who rebel or run away. But would they not feel moral outrage at this extraordinary scandal? Or do they worry that this track record will be recorded in the company’s transcript 30 years later? Japan's lifetime employment system is deeply nuanced.
【4】 Nikkei NewspaperU.S. Democrats, deception about reducing inequality 9/24
Key Points
There were moments when the Democrats seemed to take on U.S. inequality head-on. But that was in the past; the ultra-wealthy seem set to remain comfortable for several years.
Senator Manchin, the moderate from West Virginia, holds the key to passage. He is demanding reductions in spending for Biden's flagship policy, the Growth Investment Act, which would allocate $3.5 trillion over 10 years for child care, education support, and climate measures.
Reduce the proposed increase in the federal corporate tax rate from 21% toward 28%.
President Biden's plan to nearly double capital gains tax to 39.6% is unlikely to be realized.
The retreat on Democrats' stance on inequality comes from mainstream liberals elected from strong Democratic bases like New York and California.
They aim to eliminate the current SALT deduction cap of $10,000. Removing the cap would allow residents in high-tax states to deduct all their state and local taxes from federal income taxes.
【Kawata Comment】
The Democrats are not a monolith, and their fragility is exposed. The Senate has 50 Democrats out of 100, so for any bill to pass, all must vote in favor; otherwise the Vice President breaks the tie. This political fragility and internal discord will affect the real economy, but stock prices do not seem to worry yet.
In the U.S. economy, inequality is inevitable. Under Trump, policies favored the rich, lifting stock prices; the pandemic further boosted them. The driver was liquidity from monetary easing, with investment funds front-running the transformation of industries via DX (digital transformation).
If this continues, the middle class will shrink and democracy may deteriorate. When and in what form will this become visible? Are investors ignoring this? I check the daily media from that perspective as well.
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4. Investment Tips
This column writes not only about “investment methods” or “stock picks” but also about “interesting indicators and statements” and “movements in society and politics.”
Change in the top 25 market cap of S&P 500 over the past 20 years
In the September 13 issue of this newsletter, in “Investment Tips,” we noted that “strategists have been too conservative about the past three to four years; they have undervalued the impact of the outsized rise in big tech and the resultant increase in market capitalization on the index.”
So this time, let's review the top market-cap stocks in the S&P 500 and see where strategists misread things.
Below are the top 25 by market cap for 2001 (9/11), 2011 (10 years later), and the most recent 2021 (9/2021).
Top 25 by sector: 2001 vs 2011; energy stocks accounted for 16% of the top 25 in 2011; today energy and materials are not in the top 25.
Of the 25 stocks that were in the top 25 in September 2011, only 10 remained in the latest list; the list will have changed greatly in the next decade.
Going back to September 2001, among the companies that were top 25 then, the ones that still remain are Microsoft (MSFT), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Walmart (WMT), and Pfizer (PFE). Facebook (FB) and Tesla (TSLA) did not exist 20 years ago. Alphabet (GOOGL) and Netflix (NFLX) were not yet listed.
【Kawata Comment】
The strategists' miscalculation was not anticipating how large the tech platform players would become.
Among GAFAM, Facebook (now Meta) has a market cap of about $1 trillion; Apple at the top is approaching $3 trillion. Will there be further growth for these mega-companies? Wall Street's orthodox strategists surely thought so.
However, for the United States, further growth of GAFAM is essential for maintaining global leadership; regulators won't necessarily curb them aggressively. The capital logic may be ignored by some strategists on Wall Street.
If some years later GAFAM undertake fundamental corporate actions, their market cap could increase further as an independent entity. There are also several firms that could catch up: Tesla (TSLA), Nvidia (NVDA), Salesforce.com (CRM), and PayPal (PYPL).
These firms are at the forefront of industrial transformation, so valuations are high. Winners emerge through fierce competition, but even winners are not safe. Traditional analyzers tend to underestimate this brutal reality in their stock-price forecasts.
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5. Kawata's Walk (Book Edition)
◇◇ Koji YanagisawaEmpires’ End: Collective Self-Defense for a nation at risk (Shinchosha Shinsho)
Last week, while watching a TV program by Makoto Terashima, a co-authored work with Yanagisawa was introduced. I asked, “Yanagisawa who?” and bought this book. I haven't read it in full yet, but there is a portion in the latter part that resonates with my thoughts, so I will introduce it here.
Chapter 6: How to live in the world today — the meaning of today’s “constitutionalism” - (P149)
1 What kind of country is Japan
Japan’s identity is being questioned
Not possessing the conditions of a great power — small territory, self-sufficiency, national character
（omitted）
Interesting passages quoted and summarized
“America’s identity is to spread its value of freedom and democracy to the world. To realize that, freedom and democracy must take the form of wars that are completely opposite in nature.” (P150)
“What kind of country is Japan, and what kind of country should it be? The postwar identity was: 1) a country that does not fight wars, and 2) life improves the more you work. Now, both are collapsing.” (P151)
“Essential conditions to be a great power: 1) land, 2) self-sufficiency, 3) a sense of mission to create order and spread it.” “In that sense, the United States, the former Soviet Union, and today’s China are all great powers.” (P152)
“Japan, an island nation with limited land and few resources, does not fit the first two definitions, and it has little enthusiasm to create international order itself, so ‘Japan is not a great power’.” (P153)
“What is Japan’s identity? For a long time after the war, saying ‘peaceful nation Japan’ sufficed. Now, although there is a self-definition as ‘America’s ally Japan,’ so what?” (P166)
“Even if Japan and America share freedom and democracy, that was a watershed era during the Cold War when facing the socialist bloc. It’s a different era now.” (P166)
【Kawata Comment】
Yanagisawa’s definition suggests the world’s great powers are now only the U.S. and China. The former Soviet Union may have been a great power, while France believes it is the world’s greatest cultural power, but that’s not really the case.
I admire that he says “Japan is not a great power.” “3) the mission to create order and spread it.” The Japanese are not aggressive in pushing their values on others.
I have been arguing for wealth formation through U.S. stock investments, and I completely agree with Yanagisawa’s view of Japan today. In other words, Japan’s defense and economy are often difficult to handle domestically.
In that sense, investing in Japanese stocks for wealth creation is too risky. Does that mean Japanese people abroad are also in danger? Well, yes, but if so, that would mean you cannot stay in Japan. Ordinary Japanese people lack the motivation and stamina to persevere. If you stay in Japan and work with that grit, you may make it work.
But if money invested in the U.S. does not come back? Then we’ll deal with it when it happens. To prevent such a situation, people who are “citizens of a great power” should keep an eye on movements in the U.S., China, and the world, thus making overseas investments to keep an information antenna out there. (Again returning to U.S. stocks.)
By the way, the main topic of this book is the exercise of collective self-defense. Understanding the gap between expert perspectives and laypeople’s comprehension is important. Reading this book should inspire individual reflection.
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5. Kawata's Walk
◇◇Recently Watched Movies ◇◇
“The Silent Resistance: The Artist Who Rescued Jewish Orphans” Official Site
Synopsis
In 1938 France, Marcel, who dreams of living as an artist, works at a butcher shop by day and performs pantomime at a cabaret by night. As World War II intensifies, he and his brother Alain, cousin Georges, and his beloved Emma shelter 123 Jewish children orphaned by Nazi persecution.
Marcel brings smiles back to the frightened children with pantomime and forms strong bonds with them. Yet Nazi forces grow stronger, and in 1942 Germany occupies all of France. Marcel decides to cross the dangerous Alps to lead the children to safety in Switzerland.
I am not fond of films that depict torture or killing, but I believe a film based on historical facts can be beneficial, so I went to the theater.
The film vividly portrays the brutality of the Nazis from Jewish and French perspectives.
Such tragedies occurred about 80 years ago on a global scale. Japan, allied with Italy, fought against the Allied powers. It is still perplexing how such thoughts and decisions could be reached at the time.
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6. Upcoming Activities
◇October 6 (Wednesday) 11:00 AMStock Voice
◇October 20 (Wednesday) 11:00 AMStock Voice
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7. Q&A Corner
Below, Mr. H from Viewer asks about investment methods.
(Kawata) To outperform the S&P 500 index over the long term, you need many elements. If in the next 10 years (or even 5) you can beat the S&P 500 not every year but cumulatively, that would be amazing. Please give it a try. However, many peopledo not record performance accurately. They tend to remember only when they win. In reality, I record in Excel every day.
In response, Mr. H says
H: It is very important to beat the index over the long term with compounding. I don’t record as diligently as you, but I compare the performance of VTI (*), QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF), and individual stocks. Currently, I have about 25% cash, so by year-end I plan to increase the index ratio and gradually transform into a portfolio that does not underperform the index.
(*) VTI: Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF. Holds U.S. stocks of all market caps, targeting the entire U.S. equity market. Holds over 3,500 stocks, with weights based on market cap.
Question
Kawata: You hold about 30 stocks totaling 10% of your portfolio, despite not doing detailed analysis of individual stocks. If 90% of overall performance is determined by QQQ, would it be okay to allocate the remaining 10% to something like TQQQ? I’ve wondered about this for a long time.
Kawata: I keep an eye on individual stocks because otherwise I would have no material for morning meetings.
Earlier, I started with only individual stocks, but after years of tracking performance, I realized how hard it is to beat major benchmarks with individual stocks. Still, I invest in individual stocks because if I don’t chase them, I lose interest in the market, and there is also the desire to beat the benchmark. At the end of this article I will share my latest portfolio.
If you are busy with your main job and investment returns are all you care about, perhaps a zero in individual stocks could work?
Even so, in the past I held about 10 stocks at most. Now my weights are small. Performance isn’t bad. The reserve positions are just a tiny bit.
H: Thank you for your reply.
Because of Kawata’s guidance, last year I allocated my mother’s and sister’s assets 50/50 between the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq 100, and they grew reasonably well. I will try to move towards such a portfolio over 2–3 years.
Additional comment: About “Investing in individual stocks without detailed analysis”
This person knows my investment approach well. In particular, they see that I do not perform detailed analysis on individual stocks. If you watch my morning meeting videos, you can infer my stock selection process.
There was a time I invested only in individual stocks. What I learned is that stock picking is extremely difficult and inefficient (labor-intensive) as an investment method.
【Kawata Comment】
Benchmark of 10% annual return
For me, the benchmark is the S&P 500 or Nasdaq 100, so simply rising in value does not fulfill the goal of asset management. The long-term performance of the S&P 500 shows a roughly 10% annual rise, an extremely high hurdle, and few realize this. Below are lessons learned from my investment experience.
Do textbook investment indicators reliably beat the benchmark?
In other words, simply citing popular indicators that “the stock is rising due to good performance, profitability, or cash flow” does not guarantee beating the benchmark. Consider that the leading tech platforms like GAFAM became extremely expensive by traditional metrics, and Tesla surged 7–8 times in a year, which could not be justified by any fundamental metric. Meanwhile, sectors and stocks considered undervalued are rarely reevaluated for years, missing opportunities to catch up.
Short-term trading of individual stocks cannot make big profits
With this approach (investing in individual stocks), the time exposure and weight of invested funds against the benchmark are reduced. This is equivalent to risk-controlled management. Also, turnover costs in trading are high, which is a disadvantage. In benchmark investing, you keep 100% of your invested funds in the market without leaving it even for a second. In a long-term, straight-up market like the U.S., investing in individual stocks is inherently disadvantageous compared to benchmarks.
Difficulties of stock-picking
If you rely on intuition, media hype, or others’ recommendations, you will inevitably converge on popular stocks. As a result, you tend to accumulate overvalued stocks you like, whose price movements are volatile. Eventually, the market may drop sharply and many stocks fall below benchmarks, never fully recovering. In the end, the profits from winning stocks and the losses from losing stocks often fail to beat the benchmark.
Accurate measurement of performance
People who brag about profits from individual stocks often do not properly compare to the benchmark. It is essential to calculate the value at year-end, including unrealized gains, from the starting capital at the beginning of the year, but not many people manage this properly. If you calculate accurately, many people underperform the benchmark. This is clearly shown by recent Monex Securities surveys I’ve discussed.
Reference: My latest portfolio of individual stocks
This is also shown in my morning meetings. The core portfolio is long-term holdings; I do not sell unless there is a major reason. The reserve positions are small in crypto assets and cannabis stocks, which are minor and do not significantly affect the main portfolio's performance.
Main portfolio of individual stocks
As you can see from the year-to-date change, the performance is not bad. The weak stocks have been cut, so the winners remain. QQQ at number 9 is the Nasdaq-100 ETF and serves as my benchmark. I also hold leveraged ETFs, but they move in the same direction as the benchmark with larger fluctuations, not suitable for everyone.
Other stocks are growth-oriented. Their investment indicators are quite overvalued, but growth expectations support the valuations.
Recent purchases
Number 2: AVIR, AveXis Pharmaceuticals (AVIR) is expected to obtain late-stage clinical data for an oral antiviral drug for COVID-19 in the coming months. It was mentioned in the latest issue of Barron's (9/19). I bought it on the following Friday after a sharp rise. Market cap around 300 billion yen, which is usually too small to buy.
Number 5: KRBN, KraneShares Global Carbon ETF, which operates on carbon credits futures and benefits from climate action. I bought this within the last month.
Portfolio before full adoption
I buy crypto assets and cannabis stocks gradually, but they are not the core of my personal portfolio. Crypto and cannabis are viewed skeptically in Japan. Former fringe assets may become mainstream someday. I remind myself not to miss changing times.
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