The Truth About U.S. Stock Investing by Shigenobu Kawada: "Training American Stock Investing Through the Media" [Vol.14] Distributed on September 13, 2021
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Delivering the Truth About U.S. Stock Investments
Shigenobu Kawada's "Training in U.S. Stocks through the Media"
［Vol.14］ Distributed on September 13, 2021
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＊＊＊Table of Contents＊＊＊
Market Review
This Week's Straight Talk! 【Market Outlook】
This Week's Picked Articles 【Religion and Society in the U.S.】【Opportunities for Japanese Companies】【U.S. Domestic Terror Attacks】
Investment Tips 【How to Use Strategist Forecasts】
Kawada's Walk About 【Entrepreneurship and 9/11】 "Kawada-kun, don't commit suicide"
Activity Information
Q&A Corner 【Reasons You’re Not Profitable】
Achieving 20 Million Yen Pace
Source: Financial Services Agency, based on Asset Allocation Simulation prepared by ExeTrust Co., Ltd.
*The numbers above are for simulation purposes only and do not guarantee future investment results. Fees and taxes are not considered.
How to Read: Assumed Yield and Target Year
3–4% for 30+ years: This is what wrap funds or balanced funds can achieve
5–7% for 25 years may take this long: for stock funds outside the U.S.
8–10% for about 20 years: this is a modestly optimistic view of a rise in the S&P 500
S&P 500 Performance Record (Dividends Reinvested, 1970-2021)
Aim to reach 20 Million Yen early with proper risk-taking
Kawada's message is extremely simple. To reach 20 Million Yen, let as much of your surplus funds work efficiently. For that, it is important that you and others understand the meaning of risk and reward. Before reading the weekly newsletter, glance at this table to confirm the correct investment posture.
Now, let's start the countdown to 20 Million Yen right away!
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1. Market Review (Sept 6–Sept 10)
＜Major Indices＞
・Dow Jones Industrial Average -2.2%
・S&P 500 -1.7%
・Nasdaq Composite -1.6%
＝Snapshot Version＝
Overall, the week was characterized by a cautious mood, concerns about the economic recovery weighed on sentiment, and the Dow and S&P 500 fell for five consecutive sessions from the previous Friday. The rise in the Producer Price Index beyond market expectations and the resulting higher yields added to the caution.
＝A little more detail＝
During the four-day trading week for Labor Day, concerns about economic recovery due to renewed COVID-19 spread weighed on markets. Although initial claims for unemployment benefits dipped, regional Fed surveys suggested a slower pace of recovery from early July to August, dampening sentiment. On the other hand, comments from Federal Reserve officials supporting balance-sheet tapering by year-end, the PPI showing the largest year-over-year rise since November 2010, and the European Central Bank's decision to taper bond purchases contributed to higher rates. With no clear catalysts on economic strength or rates, small declines persisted, bringing the Dow back to mid-July levels.
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2. This Week's Straight Talk!
A column delivering essential information you should know.
Weak Market
The stock market had been trading at high levels during the summer break and remained soft throughout last week. From macroeconomic conditions, monetary policy, to stock valuations, there were few reasons to aggressively buy, and while Nasdaq hit an all-time high on the first trading day after the break, it felt like the gains from during the break were pocketed.
Cautious Outlook
In addition to the above, seasonal weakness tends to appear, and banks and brokerage firms have issued cautious outlooks.
Bank of America warned that the S&P 500's average annual return over the next decade could turn negative (first time since the IT bubble), Morgan Stanley cut expectations for early monetary easing and warned about virus resurgence, suggesting a lower equity allocation. Citigroup cited negative dynamics in the flow of credit between public and private sectors as a major concern. Goldman Sachs lowered its Q3 GDP growth forecast and noted a lack of cushion against negative surprises. Credit Suisse maintained a slightly underweight position due to rich valuations and regulatory concerns.
Still, holding to overweight positions remains the best stance
These comments are sensible but reflect issues within the stock market and the economy/finance environment. Some pullback may occur, but the declines for these reasons are likely to be only about 10%. Since these figures are from post-hoc high/low assessments, actual trading may only allow a wave riding of about 7% at most. For long-term asset accumulation, you should not worry about that level and stay invested with conviction. The risk of missing a rally after selling is greater than the risk of holding.
External Market Risks
If a 10% pullback occurs, it would likely come from external factors. Possible catalysts include political turmoil over debt ceiling and budget bills, premature tightening of monetary policy in Europe, non-U.S. debt problems such as Chinese real estate firms, a COVID-19 variant with even higher contagiousness than Delta, geopolitical risks, and the panic from their simultaneous occurrence.
In any case, the environment is likely to remain lacking in bullish catalysts. A shift to pullbacks driven by time rather than price, leading into late October around corporate earnings announcements, might be the best-case scenario.
S&P 500 Index 1-Year Chart
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3. This Week's Picked Articles
This column selects information useful for wealth formation from what I have gathered, ranks it, and comments with a very personal viewpoint.
【Religion in the United States and Society】
【1】 Nikkei Newspaper"Renewable energy cheapness pushes the United States toward decarbonization"9/6
■ Article Summary
60% of Americans think fossil fuel use should be sharply reduced. The remaining 40%, mostly Republican supporters, deny climate change. While they understand the danger of hurricanes, they do not believe in the severity of climate change.
On the Louisiana coast, white conservative voters are asked, "Why do you hate environmental regulations?" because they have become accustomed to environmental pollution.
The United States is the most skeptical about climate change due to political and cultural factors. The biggest reason is that the Republican Party has long provided voters with information that contradicts the facts on the warming issue.
Internal party climate-change denial is also driven by a pessimistic worldview among White Evangelicals. White Evangelicals resist accepting the science of warming, and when inconvenient truths arise from events like the pandemic or natural disasters, they tend to dismiss them as divine punishment upon a fallen world.
■ Kawata Memo: Face the Reality of the Religious Nation America
From the perspective of an ordinarily educated Japanese person, the reality of a "religious nation" America is far removed. If you reference Daisaburo Hashizume's World Is Moved by Religion (Kobunsha Shinsho), you can see that politics matters in any country, but in the United States there is something even more important: God. Politics exists to protect the Church and faith. God is more important than kings or politicians. The words of God—the Bible and the church—come next. Politicians who neglect these are subject to criticism. The relationship between religion and politics is likely very thin for modern Japanese readers. That makes it hard to read the article's true message.
【Japan's Corporate Breakthroughs】
【2】 Nikkei NewspaperLearn from the British Air Force: Information Strategy—A "Command Center" for Leveraging IP9/6
About 80 years ago, in September 1940, the British Air Force defeated the much stronger German Air Force. Germany deployed over 3,000 aircraft while the British had fewer than 1,000 fighters; Britain’s fate seemed precarious. Yet within about two months of the battle, Britain shot down 1,200 aircraft and won.
The key to victory was radar and integrated air defense. The British command used radar—intelligence—to fight on more or less equal terms with a vastly stronger foe. Today, American, Chinese, and Korean advanced companies are seen as following Britain’s lead. What Japan needs now is a similar radar to gather objective information and a command center to decide where to fight advantageously.
What is drawing attention as radar is the analysis of intellectual property (IP) to inform management decisions. Also, the Tokyo Stock Exchange's Corporate Governance Code revised in June requires management to establish a headquarters function to invest in and utilize IP—essentially IP governance. Companies serious about utilizing IP are strengthening their intelligence capabilities. Britain began its information- gathering long before Germany began its raids. Intelligence work starts quietly, continues steadily, and eventually plays a decisive role.
■ Kawata Memo
Face the reality of Japan Inc.’s corporate landscape. The article hints that in the United States there is a strong “religion and politics” integration. The strongest takeaway is that the path to revival for Japanese firms lies not just in IP strategy but in restructuring governance and the employment system.
【Japan Inc.'s Breakthrough】
9/9
■ Three problems facing Japanese firms
First, their manners are too proper, and boldness has faded.
Second, too attached to the past.
Third, domestic businesses still dominate.
These three are connected. Business activities themselves are risks, so while monitoring the major risks faced by current operations, also realize new opportunities to optimize risk and profits. Restoring this dynamism is urgently required for Japanese firms today.
■ Kawata Memo: The key to Japan’s corporate revival lies in shedding lifetime employment
The real name of the Nikkei Newspaper might be “Japan's Economic Supporter.” As the article argues, Japanese firms surely have strategies to fight. Yet the biggest issue I see is the employment system—specifically the lifetime employment system. This system was praised during the high-growth era and around 1980’s era of “Japan is number one,” but now it often acts as a weakness.
In my case, moving away from home for university, then from Kyoto to Tokyo and overseas for jobs, forced me to repeatedly relocate, which helped me acquire skills and build networks. This system functioned well during growth, but it also creates a false sense of permanent security and lax self-discipline.
Nao Yashiro, a professor at Showa Women’s University, is articulating a sharp critique of Japan's employment issues. His new Amazon-ordered book, “Break Japan’s Employment Practices” by Nao Yashiro, has just arrived. Used copies with shipping total 528 yen—cheap and interesting. Excerpts follow from the description.
“The core problem is the labor–labor conflict! The essence of Japan's employment issue is the antagonism between regular and non-regular workers—the “labor–labor conflict.”
Japan’s job practices, shaped by long-term employment guarantees, seniority-based promotions, and company unions, cling to past legacies and resist change.
A typical example is male regular employees who get long-term employment and a living wage supporting a family, but who are required to work unconditionally at any job by their employer.
Today, large corporate male regular employees, who work in a system without defined job types, have created an efficient yet unfair way of working.
Below is Kawata Memo
■ Break the current class-based system
However reality does not move as the professor predicts. The problem of lifetime employment is largely decided at the job-hunting stage of university, when one’s professional life is largely fixed. Entering a top-tier company offers lifelong security. With such generous benefits, there is little incentive to take risks and challenge oneself.
If you want more vigor in Japanese companies, revisiting lifetime employment is essential. Every organization has its hierarchy and brand. These reflect the organization’s effort and achievements. If employment is only lifetime, a new graduate’s life is largely determined at entry—a kind of “status system.”
Class society or status society may be a natural outcome of human nature. Even so, there should be mechanisms that allow individuals to break down class or status barriers through their own will and effort.
【United States 9/11 Attacks】
【4】 Nikkei Newspaper20 years after 9/11, American reporters reflect on that day (photo by Reuters)9/11
The terrorist attacks on the United States occurred on September 11, 2001. This is a roundtable with three women—Asia-Pacific correspondent and NY and Chicago-based reporters—who covered the event for Nikkei. By the way, my office was in a high-rise near the World Trade Center, so I visited WTC many times during my posting.
The attack happened on Tuesday morning after Labor Day. In Japan it was Tuesday night. On TV, shocking images appeared and it was clear something extraordinary had occurred.
The U.S. stock market was closed for four days, reopening on Monday, September 17. After reopening, stock prices fell and then began to rise the following week on September 24. They continued to rise through January 2002, then softened again. The S&P 500 ultimately bottomed on October 9, 2002, down 49% from the March 23, 2000 peak.
S&P 500 Index 2001 July – 2003 October period
On an annual basis, it was an unusually long period where the S&P 500 fell year over year for three consecutive years (see the top chart of this newsletter). It followed the IT bubble’s collapse after the end of the Cold War in 1989 and the IT boom from 1995 onward.
According to participants in this roundtable, there was a sense that the United States had become one again.
After that sense of unity, the economy regained vitality, only to be hit by a financial crisis. The decade from 2001 to 2010 saw the S&P 500 average annual return of only about 1.38%, among the worst ten-year periods in recent memory.
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4. Investment Tips
In addition to investment methods and stock recommendations, this column covers indicators, quotes, and social or political developments that caught my eye.
■ How to use Strategist forecasts
■ Who are stock strategists
On Wall Street, there are strategists who design investment strategies. They analyze the investment environment from various angles—from macroeconomic trends to industry and company dynamics to supply-and-demand factors in securities—and provide policy guidance to clients.
Strategists are present not only in equities but also in bonds and currencies. Here we focus on equity strategists. Although many well-known strategists come from sell-side firms (brokerages), many famous names also come from large buy-side institutions or independent firms.
Sell-side strategists may be more bullish or less cautious, perhaps because brokers earn more when clients trade. Buy-side strategists may be more cautious to protect capital. Independent strategists often come from previous sell-side roles, but few survive in the long run.
■ Strategist Forecasts
This section discusses how to use strategist forecasts. I summarize six strategists from a recent issue (9/6) of The Barron’s Digest. Forecasts attract attention at year-end and the turn of the year when investors look ahead one year. Autumn is when investors return from summer vacations and political, global, corporate, and consumer activity picks up, so revising market expectations for investors is timely.
■ Mainstream is Fundamentals-Based Forecasts
Strategists differ from traders who rely on intuition or supply-demand metrics; they build forecasts logically from fundamentals (rates, corporate earnings, currency, etc.). Of course, stock demand, liquidity flows, M&A, and buybacks also impact stock prices. Some strategists focusing on demand and quantitative metrics are called quant strategists.
■ Are strategists lagging behind market changes?
Over the past decade, strategists have seemed to lag behind the market's changes. It’s not clear if this is the cause, but forecasts often come in below actual market movements, a trend that has become more notable recently.
Specifically, they have failed to value high-tech names properly, the rapid rise of platform companies has inflated the market caps of a few stocks, and there is skepticism about the socio-economic changes brought by digital transformation accelerated by the pandemic.
As a result, the market’s breadth has narrowed, pushing index levels higher while undervaluing traditional value stocks in sectors like finance, energy, industrials, materials, and consumer staples. Many strategists continue to recommend these sectors, expecting a re-rating that has yet to occur.
■ The Strategist’s Habits
① Sell-side vs. Buy-side: Strategists in different organizations have varying forecast targets. Sell-side strategists generally have wider target ranges than buy-side strategists, often giving the impression of bigger bull markets and deeper bear markets. Brokers may be rewarded by higher trading volumes, while asset managers cut exposure when bearish. This bias can shape forecasts.
② European forecasts tend to be lower: European institutions like Barclays, Deutsche, SocGen, and UBS generally have lower forecasts. They tend to emphasize strengths in Europe and emerging markets and often advise investing in Europe or emerging markets over U.S. stocks.
③ Europe struggles with creative destruction: European elites are often entrenched in the old order, making adaptation slower. The U.S. dynamism and the rise of meritocracy are less welcomed in Europe, which can heighten perceived overvaluation of U.S. stocks.
■ Latest Strategist Forecasts and Year-End Stock Prices
The chart below, devised by our analyst Sasaki (photo), shows S&P 500 prices over the past five years. The red box encloses the year-start value and the strategists’ year-end forecasts, while the black line extends right to show the year-end value. In recent years strategists’ forecasts have lagged behind actual prices; looking back to 2014–2016 there were years when forecasts were more bullish.
Strategists’ forecasts are calculated by multiplying per-share earnings by a P/E ratio expected with interest rates and inflation in mind. But there is considerable discretionary input from strategists that can alter the outcome.
Past three years of strategists’ forecasts vs. actual year-end prices
■ In Short: What Strategist Forecasts Are
As mentioned, forecasts rarely hit exactly, and sometimes they miss badly.
Why do stock forecasts miss? Corporate earnings are reasonably predictable, but interest-rate forecasts are often wrong. That distorts the P/E multiples, causing stock prices to be mispriced.
■ If you smooth things out, the average is about 10%
A while back, in 2008, the S&P 500 fell 38% in one year. At the end of 2007, strategists’ average forecast was about +11%. The crisis hit as markets began to crumble in the fall of 2007. The market clearly had a warning, but strategists apparently did not anticipate the crisis at that time. This may have called strategists’ credibility into question.
Strategists in large organizations build scenarios based on published data and then adjust with some personal judgment. Forecasts that deviate from fundamentals or do not anticipate unforeseen events are not publishable.
In such times, hedge fund managers who capitalize on price moves in either direction often gain prominence.
■ Over the last 20 years, the average forecast yields about +9.8% annually
Even though strategists are part of Wall Street, official group or credential is not required. However, public data summarized by major media and independent research often show similar figures. I typically reference The Barron’s Digest or CNBC for these numbers.
The average forecast over the last 20 years is +9.8% per year. This number roughly mirrors the S&P 500’s total return including dividends over the past century. Excluding dividends, the index rose around 7% per year. Thus strategists tend to be about 3% more optimistic. That “optimism premium” may be the role of this position.
■ More Important than Strategists’ Forecasts: Principles of Logical Coherence
Forecast numbers can be a psychological comfort for investors, provided by skilled professionals who base predictions on careful research. This comfort is the value they offer. Yet strategists are required to forecast with a level of mathematical logic that the market—not a machine—can violate, which explains why forecasts often miss.
But for me, rather than trusting strategist forecasts, I focus on the market’s own “animal spirit,” “survival of the fittest,” and “creative destruction.” Because I have decided not to sell stocks (permanent investors), I chant a kind of mantra:
“U.S. stocks fall once every five years.”
According to the chart at the top of this newsletter (S&P 500 Performance (1970-2019)), U.S. stocks typically drop year over year about once every five years. Moreover, three times in five years they reach all-time highs by year-end. This fact informs my approach.
Recent years show declines in 2018 (-6.24%), 2011 (-0.05%), and 2015 (-0.77%). However, if including dividends, 2011 and 2015 were positive year-ends, meaning the declines are a five-year frequency. In reality, U.S. stocks are quite resilient. Rather than taking counsel from strategists, I trust the animal spirit of U.S. equities for wealth building.
S&P 500 Index Annual Change (excluding dividends, 1928-2021)
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5. Kawata's Walk
◇◇ Startup and 9.11 ◇◇
That day, the night of September 11, 2001 (Tuesday), I checked markets on TV and the Internet. The shocking footage appeared, and it was clear this was real. Afterward, I exchanged information with friends by phone.
■ Founding a Fund and Lackluster Performance
I started my business in March 2000. Coincidentally, the IT bubble burst around then. The fund I had been nurturing started in the summer, albeit a bit later than planned. I never imagined that the IT boom would lead to such a long and deep downturn, but it did.
In retrospect, the fate of my investment business was sealed at that point. The fund targeted growth stocks in Japan and the U.S., and I was the one who raised the money while a friend managed the investments.
From the fund’s inception in September, the net asset value declined steadily. After watching CNBC every evening, I felt despondent. By spring 2001, major investors pulled their funds, and fund management effectively halted.
■ “Kawata-kun, don’t commit suicide”
The fund started at 10,000 yen and closed near 7,000 yen. A mentor-turned-investor, hearing the news, gently encouraged me over the phone: “Kawata-kun, don’t kill yourself.” It was a comforting metaphor, reminding me that entrepreneurs risk everything for business. It reinforced the seriousness of entrepreneurship.
Although I was inexperienced in fund management, I was surprised by how quickly things could deteriorate. The aftermath required me to contemplate how to continue the company’s operations, and I spent an arduous period trying to survive without a clear plan. Then a major disaster struck. Looking back, I cannot clearly recall exactly how I endured it all.
■ Lacking Necessary Know-How and Experience in Management
The market crash of that era was extreme. From 2000 to 2002, the S&P 500 fell 49% from its March 2000 peak to October 2002. Ultimately, my business idea depended on a rising market.
In reality, the bottom did not come until more than a year after the fund closed. If the stock selection had been superb, perhaps the overall market decline would have mattered less. But if funds are withdrawn regardless of performance, a business cannot survive. This is the challenge of fund management, and I lacked adequate experience and know-how.
■ Lessons Learned from the Challenge of Fund Management
What did I learn?
① Raising capital is important, but without personal fund-management know-how, success is doubtful.
② Success does not come at the first attempt. Those who succeed did not give up after several failures and kept trying.
③ The key to business success lies more in market conditions than in the skill of management alone.
④ For investors, giving up can be prudent. A friend who started a fund around the same time saw his NAV fall to 3,000 yen and then gave up. Sometimes, giving up is necessary in fund management.
The 2000 startup and the 9/11 crash taught me how hard it is to operate independently. Since then I have chased various opportunities, not clinging to fund management, to survive. I am grateful for this trial in hindsight.
If I may, the more someone experiences failures when young, the more they gain. In Japan, the comfortable life of a salaryman often deprives people of such valuable experiences, narrowing their opportunities for business success.
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6. Upcoming Activities
◇September 15 (Wed) 11:00 AMStock Voice
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7. Q&A Corner
Questions (Summary)
In last week's newsletter, you explained that Monex Securities’ U.S. stock trading performance has not been favorable. Actually, I’ve been profitable at times and at other times not, and so far this year I’m slightly in the green. My total investment is 10 million yen, and I rotate among individual stocks every few months. I do have a loss-cut rule, but sometimes I hold onto underperforming stocks.
I’ve been investing in U.S. stocks for about five years, but my assets have not grown much. What should I do going forward? I don’t understand talking about performance after adjusting risk versus the S&P 500. Please tell me.
Answer
Recap of the article: When evaluating a random sample of 3,000 Monex Securities accounts for year-to-date risk-adjusted performance, many investors underperform the S&P 500, which has risen about 20% year-to-date.
After reading Mr. Ohtsuki’s article in Nikkei Veritas, I felt Monex Securities is an honest company. I called Monex Securities at the start of the week to confirm my understanding.
Since the S&P 500 has risen about 20% year-to-date, if all assets were invested in the S&P 500 and currency effects were ignored, the initial 10 million yen would have become 12 million yen.
■ For investors who are not achieving results with short-term trading
The typical Japanese investment approach is to buy a few individual stocks and repeatedly take profits and cut losses. The trauma of falling prices without recovery while holding positions likely leaves a lasting impression.
① Attempting high returns with limited funds
With this strategy, many do not keep the initial 10 million yen fully at risk. If cash is 40% of assets, only 60% is at risk to “try to earn.” If you had invested 10 million in the S&P 500, you would have earned 2 million year-to-date, but by trading you take excessive risks in individual stocks to chase 2 million with an average investment of 6 million, potentially inflating risk with highly volatile names.
② Adherence to stop-loss rules
Even with rules, you may break your stop-loss price or experience sharp declines, preventing you from selling at your initial target. News with many bullish signals often makes people reluctant to sell, turning short-term investing into long-term positions, which can drag prices lower. Zoom Video Communications (ZM) is a typical example. When will it return to $500?
Zoom since its IPO (April 18, 2019) stock price
Relative price of Zoom (orange) vs. S&P 500 (blue) over the past year
■ Performance Measurement
① Comparison with initial investment
Your investment performance is the profit or loss on the 10 million yen in your account. Many investors add up gains and losses from holdings and judge overall performance by the sum, which does not grow wealth effectively.
② Risk-adjusted benchmark comparison
Some investors do beat the S&P 500’s roughly 20% year-to-date return, but the question is how much risk was taken. Many have taken excessive risk in volatile high-flyer names and still failed to beat the S&P 500.
③ Face the underperformance against the S&P 500
Monex Securities’ survey shows many investors underperform the S&P 500 on risk-adjusted basis. Reaffirm the distinction between investing for wealth accumulation and entertainment or excitement.
■ Start with a long S&P 500 position
If your goal is wealth formation, you should first allocate a large portion of assets to S&P 500. Start there.
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