The Truth About U.S. Stock Investment Told by Shige-nobu Kawada's "U.S. Stock Course Trained by the Media" [Vol.13] Distributed September 6, 2021
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The Truth about U.S. Stock Investments
Shigenobu Kawata's "Training in U.S. Stocks through the Media"
［Vol.13］Distributed on September 6, 2021
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*** Table of Contents ***
Market Review
This Week's Bold Pick! The Start of Autumn Market: What Moves the Market?
This Week's Picked Articles【Afghan Withdrawal】【New Theory on Stock Gains】【Weekly Magazine U.S. Stock Special Feature】【European Opinion Leaders】【Investor Performance】
Investment Tip: Do stock prices rise when interest rates rise?
Kawata's Walk: Last Friday's live seminar
Activity Information
Q&A Corner: How did September in the past turn out with turmoil?
Achieving 20 million yen on a pace
Source: Financial Services Agency; Created by ExeTrust Co., Ltd. based on asset management simulations
*The above figures are for simulation purposes only and do not guarantee future investment results. Fees and taxes are not considered.
How to Read: Assumed Yield and Target Year
3–4%: 30+ years for wrap funds or balanced funds
5–7%: about 25 years for non-U.S. equity funds
8–10%: about 20 years, based on a modest rise of the S&P 500
Performance of the S&P 500 (Dividends Reinvested 1970-2021)
Aim to reach 20 million yen with proper risk-taking early
Kawata's message is extremely simple. To reach 20 million yen, let your funds work as efficiently as possible with available capital. For that, it is essential that each participant correctly understands the meaning of risk and reward. Before reading the weekly newsletter, glance at this table to confirm the correct investment stance.
Now, start the countdown to 20 million yen right away!
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1. Market Review (August 23 – September 3)
＜Major Indices＞
・Dow Jones +0.7%
・S&P 500 Index +2.1%
・Nasdaq Composite +4.4%
＝ Quick Version ＝
Rising on strong earnings, markets held steady. Fed Chair Powell indicated a tapering of bond purchases this year in a speech, but there were no surprises, and after the underwhelming August jobs data, expectations for timing of tapering support the market.
＝ A little more detail ＝
The stock market remained near highs. Earnings expectations supported prices, with buying interest in cyclical and major tech stocks. Before Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole conference, a cautious mood briefly prevailed, but after the speech, uncertainties about monetary policy eased, long-term rates stabilized, and bought mainly into heavyweight tech shares. Cyclicals were also bought on reopening hopes, but August jobs data and other economic indicators did not show strong momentum, leading the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to repeatedly make new highs while the Dow lagged. Some names dropped sharply after earnings, and stock selection became somewhat more selective than before.
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2. This Week's Bold Pick!
A section that delivers information you absolutely should know.
■ Recap of the Past Two Weeks
Over the past two weeks, the stock market remained firm, with the S&P 500 hitting a new high five times and the Nasdaq Composite eight times. Powell's Jackson Hole speech and August jobs data occurred, but their impact on the market was limited, backed by strong corporate earnings.
In August, the S&P 500 rose 2.9% for the month, marking the seventh consecutive month of gains on a monthly basis. Since 1950, this has happened only 15 times. This year, there have been no declines exceeding 5% from a high, a rarity since 1980 and only seen in 1995 and 2017.
■ Beginning of the Autumn Market: What Moves the Market?
Now, with Labor Day behind us, the summer vacation period ends and real market activity returns. Media outlets are widely reporting that autumn brings market volatility, and given the prior gains, some correction is plausible. If we focus on domestic economic factors excluding geopolitical risks such as terrorism, it helps to separate EPS-relevant factors from those affecting P/E multiples for clarity.
Negative factors affecting EPS include a slowing economy, renewed COVID-19 restrictions or hesitations in consumer and employment spending. Some think tanks have lowered GDP growth forecasts after the August jobs report. However, these are only downwards revisions of a still relatively strong growth outlook, unlikely to lead to a recession, so such factors alone might only cause around 5% of adjustment.
The most influential on P/E is interest rate movement. Depending on the situation, this could lead to around 10% adjustment. If long-term rates rise sharply, growth stocks would be hit harder, and Nasdaq could see comparatively deeper corrections.
The key concern with rising rates is inflation. Currently, inflation is viewed as temporary, a stance Powell echoed in his Jackson Hole speech. The reasons inflation is considered temporary are fivefold: (1) price increases are not broad-based, (2) prices in recently surging areas (used cars, etc.) are starting to be restrained, (3) wages pose little threat, (4) inflation expectations are stable, (5) a global decline in inflationary pressures.
The August jobs report gave a yellow signal to (3), but the overall impact has not yet been felt. Going forward, we will watch upcoming economic indicators with these considerations to assess the autumn market.
S&P 500 Index: Last 12 Months
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3. This Week's Picked Articles
A corner that selects and ranks information useful for asset formation from what I find intriguing, and comments in my very personal view.
【Withdraw from Afghanistan】【US President】
【1】 NikkeiHighlights of Biden's Speech: "Endless Wars" Should Not Be Prolonged / Responsibility for Decision to Withdraw9/1
What caught my eye in President Biden's speech
What I want to clarify is that (former President) Trump agreed to withdraw U.S. troops by May 1, just a few months after I took office, with the Taliban.
Therefore, the path left to us was either to withdraw or to escalate.
We will continue the fight against terrorism in Afghanistan and other countries. Ground battles are not necessary for that.
The world is changing.We are seriously competing with China. What China and Russia want is for the U.S. to get bogged down in Afghanistan for another decade.
For years we could not meet our families while deployed, could not celebrate birthdays or anniversaries. No gifts in holidays, financial strain at home, the risk of divorce, losing limbs, brain injuries, and suffering from post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). There are tragic and shocking statistics. 18 veterans commit suicide every day in America. No war is low-cost.
（18 veterans, on average, who die by suicide every single day in America — not in a far-off place, but right here in America. ）
God bless you. Thank you.
（Thank you. Thank you. And may God bless you all. And may God protect our troops.）
Kawada Comment
■The United States is always at war
Trump had already decided to withdraw, and the Biden administration had no room to choose. ISIS terrorism during this withdrawal caused 13 deaths. FOX News has been reporting Biden's resignation day after day, but there is something odd about that. I don’t know whether there was a misjudgment of the situation, but isn’t political priority about “demanding resignation” not appropriate?
Retired military leaders demand mass resignation of Biden team: Milley, Austin, Blinken, Sullivan
Continuing involvement in Afghanistan would ultimately benefit China and Russia. I think this is another important point.
Well, I experienced the Gulf War in 1991 while in the United States. I remember ceremonies for returned soldiers in New Jersey where I lived. It was soon after the end of the Cold War in 1989. I realized the U.S. is always a country at war.
■ Most Japanese have no experience of war
Since 1945, Japanese people have not felt war as a party to it. Territorial, resource, religious, and governance disputes among nations continue. At the root of these conflicts are recognition and the desire for equality at individual, regional, ethnic, and national levels. When these instincts clash, great sacrifices result. Simply lamenting and blaming the parties involved seems like an easy mental stop.
Do many Japanese think there will never be life-or-death conflicts in the future? I think not. Postwar reconstruction and the subsequent rapid economic growth occurred within an international framework under U.S. protection. Achieving and maintaining such prosperity without shedding our own blood is a miracle of a very short time in history, a normal sense to view it as a near-miracle.
In considering future changes such as China’s rise and Middle East developments, if the United States' global strategy repositions Japan, our security policy will need a major revision. That day may not be tomorrow, but it is not far in the distant future.
■ Information gathering
We must not misread future world trends. Young people should be more aware of history, religion, and geopolitics. Regardless of domestic or international media, there is always the sender’s intention embedded in information. Therefore, developing the ability to critically examine information is crucial. Reading the key points from President Biden's remarks made me think so.
◇Below is the original manuscript
Remarks by President Biden on the End of the War in Afghanistan
【Bullish New Theory】【Stock Demand and Supply】
【2】 NikkeiNew Theory on Reasons for U.S. Stock Market Rally9/2
In the market, attention is rising for a certain theory. It is about demand and supply. The August Economists magazine highlighted it, and it is briefly: if money flows into the stock market, stock prices rise. The current rise fits the sense of market participants that demand and supply are leading the rally.
Define new money inflows into funds that decide asset allocation as a “flow.” These funds must buy stocks regardless of stock prices. The effect is persistent, and a flow of 1 dollar can raise overall value by 3–8 dollars.
Stock buybacks by companies are the same. Garbe (photo) and others estimate that“if you replace dividends with an equal amount of stock buybacks, you can raise value by 2 dollars per dollar invested.” If the hypothesis is correct, the big tech stocks like Apple leading the market is not a coincidence.
Kawada Comment
If corporate performance is fully reflected in stock prices, there is no “overvalued” or “undervalued.” Then no investor would consistently outperform the market. That is the meaning of the “Efficient Market Hypothesis | Securities Glossary | Nomura Securities”.
But reality always ends up in some form of overvaluation or undervaluation (when checked retrospectively). This article suggests current prices are quite high, but the money “flow” is pushing prices up. If this flow is used to justify stock prices, that view is dangerous.
I did not read the English edition of The Economist (*), but essentially, invest one dollar and the market capitalization increases several times over. Therefore, to raise stock prices, and to raise stock prices via share buybacks, shareholders receive more benefits than the amount invested.
This is not novel; it is something typically felt. For scholars, perhaps their achievement lies in explaining it properly. Nothing new in my view. My job here is to explore the direction and magnitude of the “flow” and the elasticity of stock prices to it.
（＊）The Economist
A new theory suggests that day-to-day trading has lasting effects on stockmarkets
【Weekly Magazine U.S. Stocks Special】
Today (9/6) issue of the September 11 edition of Toyo Keizai features “Still Time for U.S. Stocks: An Intro for Beginners.” A 44-page feature with a comic at the start, followed by “Know the魅力 of U.S. stocks,” “Starting with funds/ETFs,” and “Discover hidden gems.”
Online brokers' buying methods, investor experiences, specific stock introductions and rankings, and expert comments are all included. Both bullish and cautious views on U.S. stocks are presented; indeed Musha Research's Ryuuji Musha appears among the bullish voices. By the way, Kawada has known Musha since the Daiwa era and still gets advice from him.
■ Musha: $100k, Buffett: $1M – “Dusk is near, the path is far”
He has not changed his stance and again claims the Dow could reach $100k (around 2030). When Musha gives this talk, the audience often smiles. I always feel Japanese investors’ ignorance and bewilderment toward stock investing here, and I’m frustrated with the sense that “the dusk is far” is here. In any case, people don’t understand. The essence of stocks is ownership, compounding, and how creative destruction drives society forward. The lesson here: “A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step.”
By the way, Buffett in 2017 said, “The Dow will exceed a million dollars in a hundred years.” Even so, at a 3.9% annual rate, that would be reachable. Back then Wall Street responded to Buffett with, “Are you that bearish?”
And the conclusion of this issue’s final article is that the golden age of U.S. stocks will continue. In any case, I’d like all of you to read it, and please send any questions here.
■ Dow Jones Industrial Average 100-Year Chart
On a logarithmic scale, 10,000 times 10 is 100,000, and ten times again is 1,000,000 dollars. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose from $1,000 to $10,000 to $100,000 over time; thus $100,000 and $1,000,000 may be possible too.
【European Opinion Leader】
【4】 NikkeiPrepare for the Accelerating Pace of History: Jacques Attali
Former President of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development9/2
■ Worries arise sooner than expected
In this contribution, he discusses the law that what is highly likely to happen tends to occur much sooner than generally predicted, drawing on Afghanistan withdrawal and examples from Eastern Europe’s democratization and Germany’s reunification based on his own experience.
He also illustrates events likely to accelerate in the future.
Climate change could occur by 2025 rather than 2050, the COVID-19 pandemic may require future vaccination obligations, and China’s Communist Party’s military gambles on Taiwan are also a concern.
The main point of this contribution is to stop thinking, “Disastrous events around me will not happen soon or at all, so I don’t need to worry.” In reality, disastrous events that one would rather not face often occur sooner than expected, and many people suffer from unpreparedness.
■ Simulations for contingencies are important
Therefore, if a desirable event can be accelerated by action, one should pursue it; and if a feared event can be avoided or prepared for, one should consider what can be done. In any case, be proactive.
I think this also applies to investing. When you hold a position, you tend to think only about rising scenarios. It’s hard to imagine falling scenarios, and the opposite is more enjoyable.
But as Attali writes, “in many situations, the key to survival is being proactive.” Since September and October are often volatile for stock markets, plan for many scenarios and at least avoid selling at the bottom in a state of panic.
【Investor Performance】
【5】 Nikkei Veritas
Individual stock investments are not to be dismissed: Nana Otsuki, Monex Securities Chief StrategistNana Otsuki9/5
■ Measuring investment performance
Ms. Otsuki uses Monex Securities’ analysis toolMONEX Investment Power Diagnostic | Apps & Tools to measure and analyze the performance of the company’s clients’ investments.
The method compares each investor’s performance from the start of the year to August 25 with a benchmark over about nine months.
However, this performance is evaluated by both return and risk taken to achieve it. In other words, even if someone outperforms the S&P 500, if they took excessive risk, simply holding S&P 500 would have yielded a better return.
■ Asset formation with boring investment methods
And what is the result? See the Veritas charts, but many investors underperform the S&P 500.
Some investors do manage to beat the S&P 500 during this period, but they took significantly higher risk.
On the other hand, many investors took excessive risk and still did not beat the S&P 500. In other words, their assets did not grow by 20% in dollar terms during the period.
It reaffirmed the difference between asset formation and entertainment or thrill-seeking investments.
For asset formation, the “boring” approach feels right!
■ Appendix: Japanese stocks are easier to win
By the way, Japanese stock investors seem to do somewhat better. In other words, the share of investors who outperform TOPIX is higher in Japanese stocks than in U.S. stocks. This may be due to investors’ experience or inefficiencies in the Japanese market compared to the U.S. market.
What I can say is, as the graphs in the article show, TOPIX returns are below 10% (around 7%?). The hurdle is lower. And indeed, Japanese markets are likely less efficient than U.S. markets, so there may be more chances to beat individual names. Those with skill may perform better in Japanese stocks. I don’t have the guts to try, though.
Bonus: Bonus
■ Asset formation education is a problem with "Home Economics"
By the way, at the end of Ms. Otsuki’s article, there is a small box. From next year, asset formation education will be mandatory in high school. However, the subject is “Home Economics.” Ms. Otsuki suspects home economics teachers may impart a conservative, asset-protective curriculum to younger people, which could accelerate aversion to individual stocks. However, it seems likely it will focus on funds and ETFs.
Investing in Japanese stocks alone cannot grow one’s assets quickly. I’d like to see younger people taught to form assets using the S&P 500. If teenagers begin investing in U.S. stocks, Japan’s asset formation issue could vanish.
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4. Investment Tips
A corner where we write not only about “investment methods” and “stock picks” but also about “interesting indicators and statements” and “social and political movements.”
Will rising interest rates also push stock prices up?
Long-term interest rates have been in a historically long-down trend for the past 40 years (or were there?). The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose from around 0.5% last summer after bottoming, and many see this as the start of a long-term upturn.
Recently, market focus is whether tapering by the Fed will begin, and if short-term rates rise, whether long-term rates will turn upward as well. Will that be negative for stocks, or positive?
For today's discussion, I’d like to review the basics below.
■ Relationship between interest rates and bonds
This is important, so please remember.
■ Interest rates and stocks
And the relationship between long-term rates and stock prices is not always constant, which is also important.
Positive correlation: When bond prices fall, stock prices tend to fall as well. And when yields fall (bond prices rise), stock prices tend to rise.
Negative correlation: the opposite of the above.
■ Long-term, gradual negative correlation
Over longer periods, bond prices and stock prices show a gradual inverse relationship. In other words, when rates rise (bond prices fall), stocks are often bought.
■ Relationship between interest rates and stock prices
Classically, stock prices are determined by interest rates and earnings. Generally, good corporate earnings push stock prices up, while rising interest rates can compress the P/E ratio and push prices down.
However, stock prices do not always move according to this logic.
Why stock prices are determined: The explanation at Neko Economics
Here, we draw hints from a long-standing research report by Musha Research’s founder, Musha, and discuss.
Musha has focused on the past 40 years of the relationship between interest rates and earnings yield. He seeks clues on the future relationship between rates and stock prices by clarifying this relationship.
■ Interest rates and earnings yield
Approach is not “interest rates and stock prices,” but “interest rates and earnings yield.” When rates fall, earnings yield typically falls as well, since cheaper money makes stocks more attractive, and investors push prices up; however, this relationship is not fixed and depends on the economic context.
■ Stock prices and earnings yield
Earnings yield: Earnings yield is the inverse of the P/E ratio. “Stock earnings yield (%) = earnings per share / stock price × 100.” Corporate profits are not always paid out to shareholders immediately, but to shareholders they are all theirs.
As profits rise, earnings yield rises; if profits stay the same but stock prices rise, earnings yield falls. Thus earnings yield is determined by a combination of corporate profits and stock prices.
On the other hand, when rates fall (bond prices rise), earnings yield may rise as well if the economic environment remains uncertain, investors become pessimistic about stocks, and profits do not deteriorate much. In such cases, earnings yield could rise even as rates fall.
Additionally, factors lowering rates could come from foreign capital inflows that push U.S. rates down. If profits improve more than stock prices, earnings yield could rise as well.
In short, in real markets, corporate profits, interest rates, and investor appetite for stocks interact in complex ways to determine stock prices.
■ Musha examined the relationship over the past 40 years
1980–1999
During this period, earnings yield of the S&P 500 moved closely with 10-year Treasury yields. In other words, rate declines lowered earnings yield (pushing up P/E) and higher rates pushed stock prices lower with near-perfect correlation.
2000–2012
Despite rate declines, earnings yield rose (P/E fell), so rate declines were clearly a factor in stock weakness.
2012–2018
Ten-year yields were almost flat, but earnings yield fell (P/E rose) and stock prices rose independently of rates.
2019 onwards
Rate declines and earnings yield declines (P/E rises) appear to be progressing again. It is quite possible we have entered an era where earnings yield and long-term rates move in parallel as before 1999. If so, anticipated rate increases could lower earnings yield and put downward pressure on stock prices.
■ Musha's problem/Question
From now on
① If interest rates and earnings yield move in the same direction as in 1980–2000, and
② If rates rise,
as many worry, earnings yield could rise as well, meaning stock prices may fall unless corporate earnings improve.
So how will it unfold this time?
Media reports claim that rising rates will cause stock valuations (P/E) to contract, implying a headwind for stock prices. As Musha notes, it is not correct to simply conclude that rate increases cause stock prices to fall. Historically, rates and stocks show a loose negative correlation (when rates rise, bonds prices fall, and stock prices rise).
■ Key is inflation
Then, how do stock prices react in a rising-rate environment? The following table offers hints.
Weekly Market Commentary 030821
■ Differences due to Inflation
Stock price performance in a rising-rate environment is largely driven by the economy, but inflation is the most important factor. When inflation is high, rate increases generally reduce stock returns; however the extent to which inflation is a headwind for stocks is far beyond the level forecast by many hawkish economists today.
From 1968 to 1990, CPI rose on average 6.2% annually and exceeded 3.5% in all years except three. In five of these inflation years, the average annual return was -0.4%.
Other inflationary periods yielded an average annual return of 13.0%, well above the post-1962 average. Inflation expectations are rising, but according to the median forecast of economists polled by Bloomberg, even an end-year CPI rise of 2.5% would be an upside surprise. While inflation concerns persist, we are far from the high inflation of the 70s and 80s.
■ The steepening yield curve (the gap between long and short-term rates) is positive for stocks
A yield curve is the difference between long-term and short-term rates. A steepening curve signals expectations for growth and rising long-term rates.
Because the Fed has not yet tightened, short-term rates are kept relatively low, which implies inflation is being restrained.
In the four past rate-hiking periods where the yield curve was least steep, the price gap between 10-year Treasuries and 3-month Treasuries expanded, and S&P 500 Returns in those periods were annualized at 3.5% versus higher returns in steeper periods.
In the four periods when the yield curve was steepest, S&P 500 returns averaged 14.5% annually.
Historically, we already see significant yield-curve steepening. With the Fed keeping the short end anchored, if mid-to-long-term rates keep rising, further steepening is expected. Inflation expectations and growth prospects likely drive this.
■ The starting point of long-term rate increases matters
Long-term rates have been rising since last summer, yet as of the end of February, the 10-year yield at 1.77% remains among the lowest in history, well below the bottom 2% of the past.
For borrowers, it is true that rising rates become a heavier burden, but at current levels they remain attractive and can sustain growth.
In the four periods when the initial 10-year yield was highest, S&P 500 annual returns averaged 2.5%, while in the four periods when initial rates were lowest, returns averaged 15.4%—suggesting that a low starting rate environment supports stronger later performance.
In other words, low initial rates reflect inflation containment and lack of Fed tightening, and even if rates rise later, borrowing costs remain comparatively low, supporting the economy.
■ Stock prices in the near term need not worry
Putting this together, the current conditions suggest that
① If rate hikes have already begun
② If earnings yield and rates are now in a direct correlation
③ If inflation continues to be contained
④ If the starting rate of rate increases is historically very low
then rates and stock prices would be negatively correlated, so rate increases (i.e., lower bond prices) would be positive for stock prices.
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5. Kawata's Walk
◇◇ Last Week
Some interesting reactions from viewers:
President Kawata, you’re a bit drunk today, haha
The West is agriculture; Japan is gardening. Can gardening never make you rich…?
→ No, Japan is bonsai-like. We prune small branches and leaves to realize gains and pay taxes. We don’t cultivate giant trees.
→ I totally understand bonsai.
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6. Upcoming Activities
◇ Sept 7 (Tue) 8:15 AMNikkei CNBC
◇ Sept 15 (Wed) 11:00 AMStock Voices
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7. Q&A Corner
It's September. I hear the market is entering a period of volatility. How were things in the past? Please explain in more detail. Also, why does autumn tend to be a volatile season for markets?
Answer (summary)
This week again, many questions about this autumn market. So, following last week, I will respond to this theme.
■ Autumn market is full of factors
In August trading was thin during the summer break, political movements were slow, and there were few trading catalysts. In September, Congress resumes, and fierce debates over the infrastructure bill expected under the Biden administration. Debt ceiling issues will be on the table. Additionally, resurging COVID could delay normal economic normalization. At the same time, we should watch the persistence of inflationary pressures, which the Fed has considered temporary.
■ S&P 500 index has risen for seven consecutive months on a monthly basis
The S&P 500 was negative in January this year, but has risen for seven consecutive months since then, with year-to-date gains of about 20.4%—a notably high performance. Last year it rose 16.3%, and from the October 23 bottom, the index more than doubled.
① Among the 60-year history, when the S&P 500 has risen for seven months or more in a year, there are 14 patterns among which:
② In the past 20 years, synthetic daily charts show September tends to rise early but plunge sharply from late September to early October.
③ How has September performed historically for the S&P 500? Since 1983, the average is as shown by the blue line; green line shows the last 10 years. Both trend similarly, but green shows larger amplitude. In 2015 and 2018 September turned down; in 2017 it continued rising. How will it be this year?
What strategists on Wall Street think (table below)
“TARGET”: S&P 500 target value one year from now
“TR PROJ GAIN”: Upside to target value in one year
“TP CHG”: Change in target value on average from last month
“S&P CHG”: Change of the S&P 500 index from the previous month
From this, one can see that in September and October last year strategists were considerably more bullish than the actual S&P 500 level. As prices rose toward year-end, the gap between strategists' targets and actual values narrowed.
Since February this year, the S&P 500 has continued to rise, and the gap between targets and actual prices has narrowed again.
Yet strategists still anticipate about 10% upside in one year. I think they have become quite bullish.
■ Early-year uptrends make September less prone to declines
Further findings include:
Since 1928, the S&P 500's September monthly return has averaged -0.99%, making it the second most sluggish month after May's -0.11% average.
However, in years when the year-to-date performance has been strong, September can show positive returns—since 1928, years in which the S&P 500 rose over 13% in the first half, September's median return was +1.4%.
Since 1928, the S&P 500 fell in September about 54% of the time. But if the first half rose, September rose 63% of the time. This year, the first half gained about +14%.
Analysis of data since 1990 shows that when the first eight months rose by double digits, year-end gains added another 8%.
Even though September is often said to drop, it does not always. The chart below shows monthly up/down counts from 1928 to July 2021. For example, in 92 Septembers, gains occurred 42 times and declines 50 times.
Source: Yardeni Research, etc.
Stock Market Indicators: Historical Monthly & Annual Returns
■ Summary
Though there are many concerns around us, stock prices remain strong, and understanding why is retrospective. For long-term investors, there is no need to fear possible autumn volatility.
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