Translating the Truth About U.S. Stock Investments by Shigenobu Kawada: "Training Your U.S. Stock Knowledge in the Media" [Vol.12] Distributed August 23, 2021
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Delivering the Truth about U.S. Stock Investment
Shigenobu Kawada's "Training in U.S. Stocks through the Media"
［Vol.12］ Distributed on August 23, 2021
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＊＊＊Table of Contents＊＊＊
Market Review
This Week's Bold Insight!
This Week's Picked Articles
A few recent articles about Chinese stocks are selected. Americans love Chinese stocks! Meanwhile, Japanese investors' Chinese stock investments are few
Investment Tips
The barber I go to charges 18,000 yen annually. From the past 60 years, what can be inferred from the rise in U.S. and Japanese barber prices and stock prices
Kawada’s Walk
I dropped into a nearby octopus-sukiyaki restaurant near the office, but both lunch and dinner were quiet
Activity Information
Q&A Corner
Will markets always fall in autumn? If so, why don't you sell?
＊Next week's newsletter will be on hold
2000 Million Yen Milestone Pace Maker
Source: Financial Services Agency; Created by ExeTrust Co., Ltd. based on asset management simulations
※The figures above are for simulation purposes only and do not guarantee future investment results. Also, fees and taxes are not considered.
How to Read: Assumed Yield and Maturity
3–4% over 30+ years: this is typical for wrap funds and balanced mutual funds
5–7% over 25 years: perhaps for mutual funds outside the United States
8–10% over about 20 years: a conservative projection for the S&P 500's growth
S&P 500 Performance Record (Dividend Reinvestment 1970-2021)
Achieve 20,000,000 yen early with proper risk-taking
Kawada's message is incredibly simple. To reach 20 million yen, have as much of your surplus capital work efficiently for you. For that, participants must correctly understand the meaning of risk and reward. Before reading this weekly newsletter, glance at this table and confirm your correct investment stance.
Now, start the countdown to 20,000,000 yen right away!
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1. Market Review (August 16–August 20)
＜Major Indices＞
・Dow Jones -1.1%
・S&P 500 Index -0.6%
・Nasdaq Composite -0.7%
＝Fast Version＝
The market started off solid, but with July retail sales and August New York Fed manufacturing index plunging, cyclical stocks came under pressure. Uncertainty about the pace of monetary tightening also weighed on the topside, but the market rebounded somewhat toward the weekend.
＝A Bit More Detail＝
Despite external uncertainties such as the situation in Afghanistan, the Dow and the S&P 500 hit new intraday highs on Monday due to last week's strong performance. However, economic indicators such as July retail sales and August New York Fed manufacturing index underperformed expectations, raising concerns about the pace of economic recovery, leading to a decline in cyclical stocks. After the release of the July FOMC minutes, concerns about the pace of monetary easing picked up, and events such as Toyota's production cut due to the Delta variant and China's steel production controls added to global economic uncertainty, weighing on stock prices. Over the weekend, concerns about tapering diminished as statements from Federal Reserve officials suggested no immediate tightening, helping lift prices.
S&P 500 Chart – Past 1 Year
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2. This Week's Bold Insight!
A section that delivers essential information you should know.
Last week, the Dow and S&P 500 fell on a weekly basis for the first time in three weeks. The Nasdaq also declined. Still, the changes were modest, which is a decent performance for a summer slowdown period. Afghanistan's situation is unlikely to have economic effects or impact the stock market.
With limited catalysts during the summer lull, monetary policy developments are the main drivers. As many media outlets note, attention is turning to next week's Jackson Hole symposium. Given earlier shifts in rhetoric, the chairman's remarks often move markets or offer hints about future policy and rates, so heightened attention is natural.
However, with so much focus, Chairman Powell may opt for cautious guidance. The meeting was scheduled for three days in person starting the 26th, but it has shifted to an online format on the 27th, suggesting few new clues from the chair. The market is likely awaiting the September FOMC.
The tightening path is often compared to the May 2013 taper tantrum. The market turmoil then was driven by a rapid tightening signal from Bernanke. This time, the Fed has signaled tapering well in advance, allowing markets to price it in, reflecting Fed's consideration. At least for now, markets seem to have priced in tapering starting within the year; the question is only the scale and pace of reductions. In September's FOMC, a small initial amount may be announced, with a later increase after observing market reaction.
Key upcoming economic indicators include the August 27 release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index. The Delta variant's impact on July's retail sales was noted, but if various business sentiment indices and consumer confidence indices show deeper impact, especially on cyclical stocks, selling pressure could intensify. The September 3 employment report for August is, of course, under close watch.
What could heighten stock market volatility (excluding geopolitical factors) includes news of a slowing Chinese economy, signs of demand slowdown in semiconductors following Micron's remarks on PC demand, and a labor market that remains tight even after政府 benefits cease, potentially driving wage inflation.
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3. This Week's Pick-up Articles
A column that selects from the information I gathered on assets-building, ranks them, and comments with a highly personal viewpoint.
【1-1】 Nikkei Newspaper“Return to the Mainland,” a blow to dollar supremacy8/17
【1-2】 Nikkei NewspaperGhosts of the Cultural Revolution shrink intangible assets stocks SBG “second top” concerns8/6
【1-3】 Nikkei NewspaperUS-China decoupling, fragile amplification China tightens overseas listings7/8
【1-4】 Nikkei NewspaperInvestment money turns against China8/18
【1-5】 Nikkei NewspaperChinese stocks, individual money retreat8/20
Articles on US-China securities investments stand out. So this time I pick up the latest articles and wander through my thoughts about them.
Americans love Chinese stocks, while Japanese avoid them. So what exactly is China stock like?
Below is a summary of Article【1-1】
■ Wall Street and China were mutually fond
China has proposed stricter regulations on offshore-listed Chinese stocks. As a result, a return of Chinese companies to the mainland could damage the US dollar hegemony.
Until now, Chinese companies raised massive capital in US stock markets, while US capital benefited from Chinese company growth. The People’s Bank of China invested foreign exchange earned by Chinese firms in US Treasuries using its foreign exchange reserves. The money-based interdependence had strengthened the dollar's supremacy.
However, deep US-China antagonism has arisen, and the US has begun delisting some Chinese companies. China may not need to care about the US. “It would be better for China to develop its capital markets domestically and bring Chinese firms home to hurt dollar supremacy and foster capital-market growth,” some insiders say.
■ The key point is liberalizing capital controls
Mainland China stocks are traded in yuan. After the 2015 “yuan shock,” China had been cautious, but there is a possibility of renewed willingness to reform the yuan. Stricter overseas listings regulations and domestic returns of Chinese firms are two sides of the same coin. The flow of global capital into mainland China could tilt the world’s money center away from the US and toward China, potentially dealing a blow to the US dollar and threatening its status as the benchmark currency.
Kawada comment
■ Americans love Chinese stocks
There is a large difference in preference for Chinese stocks between Japan and the United States. Even as shown by the cover coverage of Barron’s Digest edited by me, there are often one or two Chinese-related articles each week recently.
US investors mainly invest in US stocks. Therefore they seek overseas investments with different risks and returns, and Chinese stocks are attractive from that perspective.
According to Article【1-2】, the US holders of Chinese stocks (including those listed on mainland China and Hong Kong) amount to $481 billion (about ¥53 trillion). This is ten times the amount of long-term US-held Chinese bonds. This stockholding accounts for just over 2% of the combined market cap of Shanghai, Hong Kong, and Shenzhen listed firms.
Furthermore, Article【1-3】's chart shows the total US securities investment in China is about $1.2 trillion
(around ¥130 trillion), with 75% of that, about ¥98 trillion, in stocks.
■ Japanese investment in Chinese stocks roughly ¥3 trillion?
Now, Japanese holdings in Chinese stocks: mutual funds hold 44 stocks worth about ¥440 billion. There are additional institutional holdings, estimated by our guest researcher Toyoda. He has spent many years at asset-management firms and still shares his insights with us. Below is an excerpt from an interview with him.
Q: How much do institutional investors hold in Chinese stocks?
A: “Major pension funds include in index investments. The largest GPIF foreign stock investment is ¥48 trillion, 25.7% of total. The benchmark is MSCI ACWI, so China is about 4%. At least ¥43 trillion is in passive management. That alone is about ¥2 trillion.
（*）What is MSCI ACWI? — Glossary
Q: What about other pension funds?
A: “For example, the total assets of the National Pension Fund are ¥4.7 trillion with foreign stocks at 36%. Benchmark is MSCI World, so Hong Kong stocks are included but Chinese stocks are not. Moreover, Pension Financial Organizations have ¥10 trillion with foreign stocks 25% and benchmark MSCI-ACWI with about 4% in Chinese stocks, roughly ¥1 trillion. Even if we estimate, total might be around ¥1 trillion besides GPIF.”Total around the low tens of trillions of yen? Wait—
Q: Do other institutions show anything else?
“I checked foreign stock investment by major life insurers.
Nissay General Account: ¥67 trillion, foreign stocks ¥5.2 trillion
Meiji Yasuda General Account: ¥42 trillion, foreign stocks ¥2.3 trillion
Dai-ichi General Account: ¥38 trillion, foreign stocks ¥1.8 trillion
Total foreign stocks among the three: ¥9.3 trillion
Could China account for about 1% (around ¥100 billion)?
Thank you.
Even when adding mutual funds’ ¥440 billion, it might not reach ¥3 trillion. The US holdings are two orders of magnitude larger. Of course, the numerator is larger, but in the US, institutional investors follow benchmarks. The difference may be due to different benchmarks, but the gap in individuals investing via mutual funds and ETFs is probably large.
■【1-5】 Friday Evening First PageChinese stocks, individual money retreat “Individual money retreat from Chinese stocks, mutual funds outflow ¥14.6 billion; IT regulations feared”
By the way, for 【1-5】 Friday Evening Page 1 about “Individual money retreat from Chinese stocks,” I feel the message is not strong. As noted above, Japanese individual investors don’t invest in Chinese stocks much. Given such a small investment amount, a small outflow is being treated on the first page of the evening edition. Is there some intention?
■ With China’s tightening, a change in relations with Wall Street?
With this new tightening, some stocks dropped sharply. Whether US-listed Chinese firms will delist due to worsening US-China relations is a hot topic among experts.
For example, Stephen Roach, a well-known strategist who was bullish on China for a long time, admitted in Project Syndicate on July 27 that he has “serious concerns” about the outlook for the Chinese economy. He said strict corporate control could deprive the economy of the animal spirits essential for growth and could be “a potentially fatal blow” to long-standing optimistic forecasts about China. Yet he remains bullish that “in 1–2 years a new order will be built.” The same can be said of SoftBank Group’s Masayoshi Son. 【1-4】
■ Optimism in US-China relations is better for investing
I agree with Son here. It’s better to have a moderate relationship between the two giants. They are already deeply interconnected in financial markets, benefiting both sides. It would be unwise to sever this connection. The current situation isn’t bad enough to warrant breaking it.
From an investor’s perspective, the Japanese media tends to lean overly pessimistic. A broader, historically informed view from Britain and an optimistic US outlook would be more useful. And watching the prices of US-listed Chinese stocks could give early trend signals. In short, Japanese media rhetoric is not particularly helpful for investing (and I’m getting carried away again).
Invesco Golden Dragon China ETF (PGJ)
Tracks the NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index, which holds American-listed companies with headquarters, incorporation, or main business in China, across varying market capitalizations. The fund rebalances quarterly.
【2】 Nikkei Newspaper 8/18“The century’s short-sellers” again? US famous investor targets Ark ETF; buys puts on “The Right to Sell,” including Tesla
An article about Michael Burry, famous for foreseeing the housing bubble during 2007–2009 and profiting from credit default swaps, buying a large number of puts on the Ark Investment Management ETF. He bought puts on Ark Innovation, the ETF many Japanese investors also own, anticipating a decline. It’s not about whether the bet succeeds, but about how this kind of market-accessible framework and disclosure works.
Options on many individual stocks are tradable, but on ETFs—especially active ETFs—this is remarkable. Conversely, someone had to sell those puts for Burry to buy. It’s unlikely it was a single individual or Ark itself. In any case, it shows the depth of the US stock market.
Moreover, the disclosure rule requires disclosure of such large put option holdings, which is impressive. Ark’s holdings are fully disclosed on their site (ARK INNOVATION ETF (ARKK) HOLDINGS As of 08/20/2021).
Tesla is the top holding, and Burry also holds substantial Tesla puts. If Tesla stock falls sharply, he would profit doubly. Losses are limited to the premium paid for the puts, but still, the fate of Ark’s funds, which have recently shown some caution, is worth watching.
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4. Investment Hints
This section covers not only “investment methods” and “stock picks,” but also “interesting indicators and statements” and “movements in society and politics.”
“Barber shop prices as hints for asset formation”
■ A barber for ¥1800 forever
Fuji Barber (Mitaka-shi, Shimorenjaku) | Ekiten has been a regular for at least 10 years. It’s a cut without washing; after coming home I immediately take a bath, so hair-washing or grooming isn’t needed. I recall that the price has stayed at ¥1800 all this time.
Despite being such a cheap barber, after the cut he starts giving shoulder massages. I always think, “That’s nice, but please stop,” and an older lady near him signals with her eyes that the customer doesn’t want shoulder massages. I just sit in the chair, and talking is tiring.
If the haircut is about 30 minutes at ¥1800, what is the barber’s hourly wage? It’s a bit worrying. Economists agree that beating deflation and raising wages and prices is key to breaking Japan’s stagnation.
■ Researched: Barber prices and stock market returns in Japan and the US
The study examined how prices for everyday services relate to stock market increases and what investment insights can be drawn. This research was conducted by our researcher Sasaki (photo of Sasaki studying).
Japan’s high-growth era is said to have begun around 1955. Based on my recollections, around 1960 (Showa 35), haircuts were about ¥160, and public baths about ¥17. Recently, my haircut is ¥1800, but the data suggests about ¥3600. Bathing costs about ¥450.
In sum, over the past 60 years from 1960 to 2020, haircut prices rose about 21x, bathing prices about 25x, while the Nikkei Average rose about 19x if dividends are not included. Thus these three indicators show roughly similar growth rates.
By contrast, in the United States, haircut prices rose only about 10x over the past 60 years, while the S&P 500 rose 76x. Given geographic and demographic differences, readers should interpret these figures cautiously.
1960 onward Japan-US stock prices and haircut + public bath costs
Haircut and bathing cost trends
Tips for improving profitability
■ Meaning of the data
Looking roughly at 60 years of Japan-US haircutting and stock-price increases, note that ① there are no checks on regulations or barriers for barbers and public baths in Japan and ② how social demand for barbering has changed over time is not considered.
Even so, in Japan stock prices, and haircuts and bathing fees have risen by similar rates; in the US, the gap is much wider and only US stocks have risen dramatically.
Why is that? Because the US valued market principles and put shareholders first. In every nation, governance prioritizes money over labor. This is what Tom Piketty highlighted in Capital in the Twenty-First Century.
Meanwhile, in Japan, the close similarity of haircuts, bathing fees, and stock prices may reflect an invisible hand of non-divine government. I believe these three rising rates reflect a national consensus. In other words, in the US prices for goods and services are market-determined, but in Japan the market has been steered by someone to achieve broader societal satisfaction.
（＊）Tom Piketty (Paris School of Economics) “Capital in the Twenty-First Century”
Long-term, returns on capital exceed economic growth, wealth concentrates among capital owners, income inequality and poverty accelerate, and society and economy become unstable.
Piketty’s claim: Why wealth concentrates at the top 1% — research activity
■ In the high-growth era, employees benefited more than shareholders
After the war, Japan’s industrial structure changed significantly. Local labor had to shift to different business models and was drawn to urban industrial hubs. The state prioritized policies that offered satisfying jobs and wages to these workers.
The high-growth era saw unity among citizens, and the fruits of growth were distributed relatively evenly. As a result, corporate employees’ morale rose, and barbers who served workers also benefited, making society feel wealthy. In modern terms, this period created a thick middle class which drove Japan’s growth. A fair distribution of the fruits of growth was thus a reasonable approach.
However, Japan’s stock prices peaked in 1989, and since then haircuts and bathing fees have stagnated since around 2000.
■ America’s shareholder supremacy has been evident since the 1980s
Barber prices in the US rose, but not as much as stock prices. The rise in stock prices has been overwhelming, especially since the early 1980s with neoliberal reforms and deregulation. The end of the Cold War solidified a pro-market, pro-liberty era centered in the US, continuing to this day.
In Japan, stock investments have failed to play a significant role in asset formation. Therefore no matter how persuasive securities firms’ claims are, ordinary people remain unmoved. In the US, workers directly observe that stock investment yields better returns than labor.
■ Lessons from barber prices for asset formation
The price of a barber’s services has reminded me of the attractiveness of US stock investments. So what investment insight does Sasaki’s work offer? Simply imitate Americans. The myth of secure lifetime employment and stable jobs in Japan has weakened since long ago.
Meanwhile, those who enjoyed the high-growth era and moved across domestic and international assignments under lifelong employment have not questioned it. It has been over 30 years since the end of the East-West Cold War and the Japanese asset bubble, but Japan’s social system has not kept pace.
If you think so, you need to defend yourself. Fortunately, the infrastructure for US stock trading is comparable to the US. Taxation for individuals is 20% on capital gains, right?
Yes. There is a self-defense path in front of you.
■ What is correct asset formation for Japanese people — Lessons from Sasaki’s work
1) Face Japan’s deflation head-on. No one benefits.
2) Tom Piketty’s idea that “it’s better to have money work for you than labor” is correct.
3) Japan deliberately distorted its market economy to achieve growth; however, such deliberate distortion hampers structural reforms through unemployment and market-cleansing, and the aftereffects are severe. Japan since the 2000s illustrates this clearly.
Japanese people are diligent and good at earning small sums, but poor at grand boasts and getting rich quickly. There is a way to leverage Japanese traits to become world-class, quasi-rich individuals—Japan-class wealth.
That path is investing in US stocks.
Aside
Munenari Takeyama of Musha Research, a long-time contact, recently published a substantial piece on this theme. Strategy Briefing (No. 285):“Cheap Japan is the engine of Japan’s revival”
I hold Mr. Takeyama in high regard, but I still won’t buy Japanese stocks.
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5. Kawata’s Stroll
◇◇Recently visited favorite store◇◇
Beni Rei-ya Ginza Corridor Store — Special Beni Rei-ya Takoyaki Shabu
■ Takoyaki shabu is the specialty @ Korido Street
I popped in for lunch alone. While strolling Korido Street, a large photo of the menu was posted outside the shop on a board. Among them was a beef tongue set meal, and the staff were busy preparing the store around the board.
Sometimes I suddenly crave beef tongue. Today seemed like one of those moments, so I was drawn into the shop.
Inside there was no one, and I was alone until the end. I spoke to the staff, “Evening is not possible, right? No alcohol?”
→ “Will a customer come with white rice and hot pot without alcohol?”
→ “It’s over, but do you hate the Olympics? Do you want to riot?”
→ “Riots? I don’t even have the energy.”
→ “I understand how you feel.”
Next to that bar, a tank housed their famous octopus shabu, writhing. The octopus seemed to have survived longer than expected due to poor customer turnout, writhing happily, but its skin was dull.
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6. Upcoming Activities
◇ September 1 (Wednesday) 11:00 a.m. Stock Voice
◇ September 15 (Wednesday) 11:00 a.m. Stock Voice
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7. Question Corner
Typically, autumn is said to be volatile for markets. Kawata-san also said in the morning meeting that from August to October the three months of the year are the most uncertain in performance. I am a long-term investor, but if prices are going to fall, why do I keep holding? Shouldn’t I sell when I know they will drop?
Summary of answer
Yes, autumn tends to be turbulent. The graph below averages the S&P 500’s movements from the start of the year over the past 20 years. The graph below shows adjustments since 2007 (log scale). And the table below shows monthly Dow Jones Industrial Average changes and probabilities of up/down.
But these are averages and historical records. Autumn is rough, but the question is when it starts and how severe it will be. That is known only to God. Of course there are years without turbulence.
Dow Jones Monthly Change (past 20 years, 50 years, 100 years averages)
■ Psychological training for ranges of correction
If autumn declines by 3–5%, selling at the peak and buying the bottom may not improve performance by more than 1–2%. In some cases (if the decline is big), selling might lead to buying back at a higher price during a shallow correction, or simply watching it rise.
Also, if a 10% correction occurs, at what point would you decide, “This decline is dangerous”? It’s hard to pull back when the sky is clear, or it is cloudy with light rain—doing so takes courage.
Recently, autumn saw a big drop in 2018. From mid-September to December 24, it fell 19.8%. The fear is real if you look at that chart. The high was around September 21 when S&P 500 was 2929. It fell from October 9, then recovered somewhat on November 8 and December 3. I thought this was just a normal correction and the market would hold.
But starting December 3, prices plunged to December 24 and then rebounded sharply from December 26. By February 2019 they had recovered significantly. Where would you have sold and bought back? I did nothing.
S&P 500 index, autumn market chart in recent years
Autumn drop in 2018 S&P500
S&P 500 in 2017 rising nicely, but in 2018 dropped sharply during the VIX shock in February and then rebounded
2016 saw declines start in summer, with a bottom hit on February 11, 2017
■ Lessons
Stock prices fluctuate. However, when it comes to US stocks, after a drop they always recover the lost ground. Therefore if you are a long-term investor, autumn volatility, which is uncertain in magnitude, is not something to worry about too deeply. It’s better to treat long-term investment returns as unaffected by this.
If you still have capital for investing this year, wait for a buying opportunity. Be confident; of course, this depends on believing in the long-term rise of US stocks. Me? Yes. If you read this newsletter, you’ll gradually feel comfortable with US stocks and stop fearing risk, and your assets will grow before you know it!
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Diversion: Tracing the roots of “the fate of US stock market rises”
Civilizational Clash (Japanese translation) — Paperback, 1998/6/26
Samuel P. Huntington (author), Shizuo Suzuki (translator)
The following is an excerpt from Amazon
◆ About ◆
The “Clash of Civilizations” continues the challenge to the West. Does the “Confucian-Islamic connection” pose a serious risk of nuclear proliferation? Japan cannot fit neatly into either side... The author, a world-renowned scholar of international politics and strategic studies, provides keen foresight into 21st-century international affairs!
Excerpt from the main text
Part I The World of Many Civilizations
Renunciation
Since first contact with the West in 1542, Japan largely maintained a stance of renunciation through the mid-19th century. Limited modernization, such as firearm acquisition, was allowed, but Western cultural intake, especially Christianity, was severely restricted; Westerners were expelled in the mid-17th century. This renunciation was ended when Commodore Perry forced Japan to open in 1854.
China also tried to block modernisation or Westernization for centuries. Christian missionaries were admitted in 1601, but by 1722 they were effectively expelled. Unlike Japan, China’s renunciation policy was rooted in a belief in its own central empire image and cultural superiority over surrounding peoples. China’s self-imposed isolation ended under similar external pressures (e.g., the Opium War 1839–42).
→ Since the original edition was published in 1996, this was 25 years ago. As Francis Fukuyama proclaimed the end of history around the end of the Cold War, Huntington proposed that “the Clash of Civilizations” would begin anew. He divides the world into seven (eight) civilizations: Western, Latin American, Islamic, Chinese, Hindu, Greek-Russian Orthodox, Japanese, and (Africa). Japan is classified as its own civilization, highlighting its uniqueness.
Now, around the world, attempts were made to resist Western contact, but none could persist indefinitely. Many regions became Western colonies and later gained independence—mostly in the last century. The Internet revolution around the end of the Cold War accelerated globalization, linking economic resources globally. The resulting economic disparities and cultural value differences are new sources of conflict.
■ Can we resist globalization?
Would it be possible to remove barriers from the world framework and still enjoy its benefits? For example, what if there were restrictions on US stock investments? Or if we could only build wealth from investments available in Japan? I don’t have that ability!
I apologize for the detour. Yet I’d like to believe it is impossible to deprive Japan of access to the world’s best investment opportunities via US stocks. Please allow me to debate globalization’s inward-turning effects without letting it spoil the opportunities presented by US stock investments. Of course, I’m hopeful this is a false worry.
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