Kawasaki Doruemon-ryu Exchange Rate Weather Forecast | Episode 24 August 9, 2021–Edition
In FX, this series by Kawasaki Doruemon emphasizes the temporal element. As the "FX Weather Forecast," he shares specific trading strategies derived from a statistical approach.
Kawasaki Doruemon Profile
Kawasaki Doruemon. After feeling limitations in discretionary trading, he sought a systematic trading approach that is as stress-free and profitable as possible. Through various simulations, he developed Guruguru Train.
Blog：Kawasaki Doruemon's FX Blog
【Table of Contents】
- Monthly Weather Forecast (Monthly/ Cross-Yen/ AUD-related)
- Weekly Weather Forecast (August 9–13 / August 16–20)
- Daily Weather Forecast (August 9/10/11/12/13 / August 16/17/18/19/20)
Hello! I’m Kawasaki Doruemon
This time, I’ll introduce the trend of the FX market from August 9 to August 20!
The FX Weather Forecast is calculated by taking data from past FX markets and computing the anomaly for the specific dates.
1. Monthly Weather Forecast
First, let’s introduce the monthly trend!
The table below lists the monthly data for each currency pair counted from the year 2000.
Looking at the August column for extracted cross-yen data, the number of bearish candles in USD/JPY and GBP/JPY is 15 times out of the past 21 years, while EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY have 16 times, and NZD/JPY and CAD/JPY have 14 times, indicating that bearish candles occur frequently in most cross-yen pairs.
From this, August tends to be yen-strengthening—an anomaly.
Additionally, for currency pairs involving the AUD, August shows 15 bearish candles for AUD/USD and AUD/CAD, while the EUR/AUD pair in which AUD is the settlement currency shows 16 bullish candles, indicating an anomaly where the AUD tends to be sold in August.
2. Weekly Weather Forecast
Now, let’s look at the weekly data.
The table below calculates the bullish candle probability from past weeks August 9 to August 13.
From the data, the bullish probability for EUR/CAD is 34%, for GBP/CAD is 29%, for AUD/CAD is 23%, and for NZD/CAD is 28%. In most currency pairs where CAD is the settlement currency, the bullish probability is low.
From this, the second week of August shows a slight tendency for the Canadian dollar to fall—an anomaly.
Next, let’s look at the weekly data for the third week of August (posted in the purchaser’s公开部分).
