Virtual currency market analysis [July 19]

Crypto Practice Investment Newsletter July 19

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【Cryptocurrency Market Analysis】

The price changes of cryptocurrencies since last week

are summarized as follows for the (one-week) period

Display: current price (change from one week ago)

Bitcoin

3,440,000 yen (-9%)

Ethereum

204,000 yen (-13%）

Ripple62 yen（-10％）

Polkadot1,300 yen（-21%）

Binance Coin32,000 yen（-8％）

Cardano128 yen（-13%）

Uniswap1,800 yen（-21%）

ICP　3,400 yen（-20％）

Bitcoin has fallen sharply from last week's3,600万円 and is now near the lower end of the range

around 3,40,0万円.

Bitcoin daily chart

The price range is shrinking,

and it seems to be getting absorbed at the lower end of the range.

It feels like a period of stagnation,

but regarding the range,

Short-term upper40, lower340万円 nearby

and whether the price will go back and forth within this range remains to be seen.

Or will it break below 34,000,000 JPY in the short term?

As I mentioned last week,

the lock-up release of Grayscale's cryptocurrency investment trusts

took placeon

yesterday18th.

Some voices suggested that selling would occur after the lock-up release,

but it doesn’t seem to be the case yet.

The lock-up release of BTCBTC is not known for how much profit

will be realized, but I think there are many mid- to long-term holders, so

the impact may not be significant.

By the way, Grayscale's investment trusts are taxed as stocks, but when you sell Bitcoin through a fund, the Bitcoins actually purchased by the fund are sold as-is, so it impacts Bitcoin’s price. In other words, these trusts are backed 100% by Bitcoin.

Fund investors buy Bitcoin at a premium (fees), but since you don’t need to hold Bitcoin itself, there are security and tax advantages.

However, BitcoinETFcould be approved by the SEC,

SECwhich would enable very low fees

and promote free competition, so we are also watching the SEC's moves.

【Ethereum Network payments have surged compared to last year】

The Ethereum network includes Ethereum and other

Ethereum-based cryptocurrencies

Tezos orUSDC stablecoins.

AndDeFi etc., but compared with last year, their payments increased by

1590%.

The spread of Ethereum ecosystem is good news for the entire crypto market, so it remains a focal point going forward.

People who only hold crypto on domestic exchanges also need to stay alert to such news.

This year, Layer 2s and stablecoins are in focus.

（Reference）Ethereum network payments updating to record highs

https://bitcoin-newstart.com/eth210717

【Instagram developing NFT purchase capability】NFT purchase capability

The platform’s Instagram is

a major SNS site

is developingNFT feature “Collectible”

There was news that this flow is being developed.

NFTis built on the blockchain, so

in effect, Instagram would host cryptocurrency features inside.

If you purchase NFT,

you could pay with a credit card, or

NFTs could be integrated with cryptocurrency paymentssuch as Bitcoin.

How Instagram will manage this system is a major point

to consider.

Instagram attracts not only professionals but many amateurs who

produce videos and images, and

NFT content could be delivered to readers

and people may earn a living by selling such content.

Also, regarding NFT purchases, there are two commonly reported formats:

auction and standard purchase.

It appears there is information on both.

NFT is digital content,

and it is an opportunity for everyday people who do not hold cryptocurrency to engage with it, making this a noteworthy

news item.

【What should people do if they incur losses in this market?】

I recently spoke with someone who started investing in crypto in 2021.

In the 2021 market,

investing in crypto mostly via domestic exchanges.

Bitcoin, Ethereum

Ripple, Link, etc.,

were widely invested because of their potential gains.

However, since June the market saw a sharp correction, resulting in losses,

and as losses grew, they became anxious and

eventually cut losses.

That was a very painful lesson.

When I met that person before, I advised:

“TheUptrend has continued since last year, and there is a possibility of a large downturn, so keep that in mind.

Also chasing coins simply because they rose in price without understanding them carries risks.”

If I were that person, I would hold Bitcoin and Ethereum, and quickly cut losses on currencies without potential.

Depending on the entry timing, even now there can be unrealized losses

and that is unavoidable.

However, what I feel is

○that having unrealized losses as stress means

you believe it is natural to always be profiting as you buy?

That seems odd to me.

As history shows, markets move in cycles; there are times when prices go up and times when they go down.

Unless you are not a short-term trader, there is basically no scenario where you never incur losses when buying.

On the other hand, for someone just entering the market,

they still study crypto

and say “I want to buy again if it goes lower.”

Continuing to learn even after incurring losses is commendable.

But even if it goes lower, how much lower would it have to go for you to buy?

Even now, when Bitcoin is considered,

the price would have to double from its peak of 7,000,000 JPY to be profitable

In a big drop, it is generally difficult to reinvest all the losses at once.

No one can know the best timing,

and if you could estimate timing to some extent,

you would likely be someone who has long experience with markets.

If you believe Bitcoin could rise to 10,000,000 JPY in the future,

then in the current market, any timing could still be profitable in the long run, perhaps...

If you are intent on investing in Bitcoin,

you probably feel there is long-term potential.

However, since knowledge is still lacking, there may be doubts in judgment.

Rather than being overly greedy and waiting for a large drop,

a steady, gradual approach like saving and continually learning

might be a viable style as well.