Kawasaki Doraemon-ryu Foreign Exchange Weather Forecast | Episode 23 July 26, 2021～ Edition
In FX, this series by Kawasaki Doruemon-san emphasizes the time element. As a “Forex Weather Forecast,” I will share concrete trading strategies based on a statistical approach.
Kawasaki Doruemon Profile
Kawasaki doruemon. Feeling limitations in discretionary trading, he seeks a system trading method that is as mentally light as possible and easy to profit from. After various simulations, he completed Guruguru Train.
Blog:Kawasaki Doruemon’s FX Blog
【Table of Contents】
- Monthly Weather Forecast (monthly cross pairs / AUD related)
- Weekly Weather Forecast (July 26–July 30 / August 2–August 6)
- Daily Weather Forecast (July 26/27/28/29/30 / August 2/3/4/5/6)
Hello, I’m Kawasaki Doruemon!
I collect data from past exchange markets, calculate the anomalies for those dates, and distribute them as Forex Weather Forecasts.
This time, let’s introduce the currency trends from July 26 to August 6!
1. Monthly Weather Forecast
First, let’s introduce the trend on a monthly basis!
Looking at the August column of the monthly cross-pairs data below, the number of bearish candles for USD/JPY and GBP/JPY is 15 times out of the past 21 years, EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY are 16 times, NZD/JPY and CAD/JPY are 14 times, meaning bearish candles occur frequently in most cross pairs.
From this, there is a tendency/anomaly for yen appreciation in August.
Also, looking at currencies involving AUD, August shows 15 bearish candles for AUD/USD and AUD/CAD, while AUD with EUR/AUD (where AUD is the settlement currency) shows 16 bullish candles, indicating a tendency/anomaly for AUD selling in August.
2. Weekly Weather Forecast
Next, let’s look at the weekly data.
The table below shows the bullish candle probability calculated from weekly data for July 26–30 and August 2–6 in the past.
From the weekly data for August 2–6, the bullish candle probability is 32% for GBP/JPY, 27% for GBP/USD, 31% for GBP/AUD and GBP/CHF being low, and 74% for EUR/GBP where GBP is the settlement currency, being high.
From this, it is understood that in the first week of August, GBP tends to be sold slightly more often (anomaly).
3. Daily Weather Forecast
Next, let’s introduce the daily FX weather forecast for July 26 to August 6.
The table below (shown in the purchaser-visible section) displays the bullish candle probabilities for currency pairs from 2000–2010, 2011–2020, and the past 21 years.
