Kawasaki Doruemonryu Currency Weather Forecast | Episode 19 May 31, 2021 Edition
In FX, this column by Kawasaki Dollar Demon focuses on the temporal element. As the "Forex Weather Forecast," we will teach specific trading strategies from a statistical approach.
Kawasaki Dollar Demon Profile
Kawasaki Doruemon. Feeling limits in discretionary trading, he sought a system trading method that could be profitable with as little mental burden as possible. After various simulations, he completed the Guruguru Train.
Blog:Kawasaki Dollar Demon’s FX Blog
【Table of Contents】
- Monthly Weather Forecast (Dollar-straight monthly weather forecast)
- Weekly Weather Forecast (May 31–June 4 / June 7–11)
- Daily Weather Forecast (June 2 / June 3 / June 4 / June 8)
Hello, I am Kawasaki Dollar Demon!
I collect data from past forex markets, calculate the anomalies for those dates, and deliver them as Forex Weather Forecasts. This time, I will introduce the currency trends for May 31 to June 11!
1. Monthly Weather Forecast
First, let's introduce the monthly trend!
The table below shows monthly data for currency pairs involving the dollar, counted from 2000.
Looking at the June column, there are 14 bullish candles for GBP/USD, 15 for AUD/USD, and 14 for NZD/USD; for USD/CAD, which uses the dollar as the base currency, there are 14 bearish candles, and USD/CHF has 16 bearish candles, indicating a higher tendency for bearish candles.
From this, June tends to be a month where the dollar is more likely to be sold, indicating an anomaly. In particular, USD/CHF shows bearish candles with about a 76% probability, so it warrants attention.
2. Weekly Weather Forecast
Next, let's look at the weekly data.
The table below shows the bullish candle probability calculated from the past May 31 to June 4 weeks.
From what we see, the bullish candle probability for USD/CHF is 74%, and for EUR/USD is 73%, while for USD/CHF is 30%, and CAD/CHF is 32%, which are relatively low.
Among the currency pairs showing this trend, three are currency pairs involving the Swiss Franc. Each of them slightly leans toward Swiss Franc buying, so there is a mild anomaly in the week from May 31 to June 4 where the Swiss Franc tends to strengthen. However, it is not a strong tendency, so be cautious.
Next, let's look at the weekly weather forecast for the week of June 7 to 11.
The table below (published for purchasers) shows the bullish candle probability calculated from the past June 7 to 11 weeks.
Looking at it, the weeks from June 7 onwards show a trend in currency pairs related to the NZ dollar.
