The X-Date that will decide fate is approaching! (This week's market analysis for the week of 2016/09/19)
Ah, I’m glad I wasn’t born in the Sengoku period. (´∀｀*) Hehe
Some of you may be thinking, what are you saying first thing in the morning, but do you all watch taiga dramas?
I’m terrible at social studies, especially history, and since I went into science, my historical knowledge domestically and abroad hasn’t reached even a general common sense level.
“If you’re a man, don’t look at the past, charge toward the future!”That kind of feeling made me completely uninterested, but in the past few years I’ve started watching taiga dramas, and I’ve become a little interested in the Sengoku period.
So, this year’s “Sanada Maru” I can’t watch in real time, so I’ve been recording it and watching when I have time, but we’re still in the early stages, with a lot of recordings piling up. (；・∀・) Tahara
Well, my recording situation doesn’t matter, but I’ve been thinking that the Sengoku period is a time when your clan’s fate is decided by which side you ally with, when you’re forced into battles that you have no chance of winning unless you have far greater forces, and most of all, you can’t survive without strategy. That’s what I’m thinking as I watch.
There’s hardly any chance that “you’ll rise or fall in FX” would end your life, is there?
If I had lived in the Sengoku period, I’d have already likely cut my belly instead of cutting losses. (ノ∀`) Acha
Even if I don’t reach the pinnacle, I’ll aim to be a lord of a domain and plan more strategies this week as well.
Dollar/Yen Market Analysis
The left is the daily chart, the right is the weekly chart of the USD/JPY chart.
【Technical indicators】
SMA200, Bollinger Bands 21, Ichimoku Kinko Hyo, RSI14
The daily Fibonacci is from the high on 2015/6/5125.843 yento the recent low98.898 yen
The weekly Fibonacci is from the weekly low on 2011/10/3175.574 yento125.843 yen
Last week it recovered to a fairly good level. (・∀・)Nice!!
The pink line has been erased, but the line drawn above it has been colored light blue.
It hit the line exactly there, but it did not become a renewed downtrend and is moving in a range.
That’s because we’re waiting for the results of this week’s two consecutive monetary policies, isn’t it?
As of the crucial event on 9/21,102-yen highwith a light blue line coming down, but this time Japan leads and the order is reversed with the US in the early hours, so even if the Bank of Japan, which likes surprises, raises, there’s a bit of a hurdle given that the FOMC is looming afterward.
However, the view remains the same as last week: until the line is broken to the upside, we stay bearish; if the light blue line breaks and the 104-yen high on 9/2 is surpassed, a genuine uptrend could emerge.
The downside is the 9/7 low of101.0, the 9/13 low of101.5and it’s slightly trending upward, but depending on the BOJ, there’s a possibility of breaking below this again and aiming for 95 yen.
If you’re following the trend, you’d start with jabs once you break the 9/7 low, and when the white trend line breaks, you’d deliver the real right cross.
This line as of 9/21 is99-yen highand at the same time the weekly line would also break, so there’s plenty of room to fall.
Honestly, I’d like the BOJ to stay within the light blue line and the 9/7 low, but who knows how it will turn out?
【Pick up currency!】Pound/Yen market analysis
The left is the daily chart, the right is the weekly chart of the GBP/JPY
【Technical indicators】
SMA200, Bollinger Bands 21, Ichimoku Kinko Hyo, RSI14
The daily Fibonacci is from the high on 2015/6/24195.860 yento the low on 2016/7/6 of128.752 yen
The weekly Fibonacci is from the high of the week on 2007/7/16251.080 yento the weekly low of 2011/9/19116.828 yen
The three-currency article thing is getting a bit tough, so for a while I’ll focus on the USD/JPY and one other two-currency analysis. (´・ω・) Sorry
The euro/dollar has no motivation at all...
Well, last Friday the pound fell for the first time in a while.This is also in a long downward trend, and unlike USD/JPY, the weekly band is widening; depending on this week’s moves, there’s a good chance of rekindling the booster!
Last week the daily cloud was quite in play, so if possible I’d like to wait for a return near the cloud lower boundary to short, but if a downward trend has begun, there are many cases where it drifts down without much bounce, so I want to watch today’s European time moves.
On the downside, the weekly Fibonacci shows up to116-yen highso there’s still room to fall.
On the upside, one line has been drawn and we’re waiting for its break; this week it’s around 137-yen low, leaving about 500 pips, so it feels a bit detached.
If the BOJ and FOMC pass with no wind, there’s a possibility of a Pound selling market, so I want to check not only USD/JPY but also Pounds and even the suspicious movements of AUD.
Well then everyone, may you have a week of explosive profits! (σ・∀・)σ Getts!!
