Kawasaki Dolemon Style Exchange Weather Forecast | Episode 18, May 17, 2021 Edition
In FX, this column by Kawasaki Doruemon-san emphasizes the temporal element. As the "FX Weather Forecast," we will share concrete trading strategies from a statistical approach.
Kawasaki Doruemon Profile
Kawasaki-Doruoemon. Feeling limits in discretionary trading, he sought a system trading method that would be as mentally light as possible and profitable with ease. After various simulations, he completed the Guruguru Train.
Blog：Kawasaki Doruemon’s FX Blog
【Table of Contents】
- Monthly Weather Forecast
- Weekly Weather Forecast (May 17–21 / May 24–28)
- Daily Weather Forecast (May 19 / May 21 / May 25)
Hello, this is Kawasaki Doruemon!
This time, we will introduce the FX trends from May 17 to 28!
I extract data from past FX markets, compute the anomalies for that month, and distribute them as FX Weather Forecasts.
1. Monthly Weather Forecast
The trend for May's monthly data includes a down anomaly for the GBPUSD and AUDCAD. For details, please see the previous article.
【Prev】 Kawasaki Doruemon-Style FX Weather Forecast | Issue 17 May 3, 2021 – edition2. Weekly Weather Forecast
Now, let's look at the weekly data!
The table below shows statistics taken from the weeks of May 17–21 in past years. Data since 2000 is used to calculate the probability of a bullish candlestick. Therefore, a higher probability means a higher likelihood of a bullish candlestick, and a lower probability means a higher likelihood of a bearish candlestick.
From this, the bullish candlestick probability for USD/CAD is 65%, and for AUD/NZD it is 21%. The week starting May 17 shows trends in only two currency pairs, with no clear tendency for one or another currency to be bought or sold.
Next, let's look at the week starting May 24 (posted in the purchaser-public section).
