Kawasaki Doraemon-ryu Exchange Rate Weather Forecast｜Episode 17, May 3, 2021 edition
In FX, this series by Kawasaki Doruemon emphasizes the temporal element. As a “Forex Weather Forecast,” we will share specific trading strategies from a statistical approach.
Kawasaki Doruemon Profile
Kawasaki・Doruemon. Feeling limits in discretionary trading, he sought a system trading method that would be as effortless as possible without mental strain, aiming to profit with ease. Through various simulations, he developed the Guruguru Train.
Blog：Kawasaki Doruemon’s FX Blog
【Table of Contents】
- Monthly Weather Forecast (Dollar Index / Canadian Dollar)
- Weekly Weather Forecast (May 3–7 / May 10–14)
- Daily Weather Forecast (May 4 / May 5 / May 10 / May 13)
1. Monthly Weather Forecast
Hello, I’m Kawasaki Doruemon! I collect data from past forex markets, calculate the daily anomalies, and deliver them as Forex Weather Forecasts. This time, I will introduce the trends of forex from May 3 to 14 by monthly, weekly, and daily perspectives!
First, let’s explore May’s monthly trend and anomalies! The following table counts the number of bearish (down) and bullish (up) candles for the dollar index-related monthly charts.
Looking at the May column, the number of bearish candles for GBP/USD is 17, and for AUD/USD is 14, indicating many bearish candles. In particular, GBP/USD has shown bearish candles in 17 of the past 21 years. Converted to probability, there was a bearish candle about 81% of the time, indicating a high likelihood of bearish candles. From this, we can infer that May tends to see a downside bias for GBP/USD.
Additionally, examining currency pairs involving the Canadian dollar in monthly charts shows that GBP/CAD has 14 bearish candles and AUD/CAD has 17 bearish candles, suggesting May tends to be down for AUD/CAD as well.
2. Weekly Weather Forecast
Next, let’s look at the weekly data! The table below (the portion published to purchasers) is statistical data taken from the May 3–7 weekly data in the past.
