Kawasaki Doraemon-style Exchange Rate Weather Forecast｜Episode 16 April 2021 [Kawasaki Doraemon]
In FX, this series emphasizes the temporal element by Mr. Kawasaki Doruemon. As a "Forex Weather Forecast," he shares concrete trading strategies from a statistical approach.
Note: This article is a republication and re-edit of an article from FX攻略.com May 2021 issue. Please be aware that the market information stated in the text differs from the current market.
Kawasaki Doruemon. Feeling limits in discretionary trading, he sought a system trading method that could earn profits with as little mental burden as possible. After various simulations, he completed the Guruguru Train.
Blog:Kawasaki Doruemon's FX Blog
Twitter：https://twitter.com/kawasakidoruemo
YouTube：https://www.youtube.com/user/koutyan0610/featured/
April: Attention on Pound Strength
This time, let's look for April trends and anomalies in past exchange rate movements. Table ① (posted in the publicly available purchaser section) counts the monthly data from 2000. Looking at it, April shows 18 bullish days for GBP/USD, and 16 for GBP/JPY and GBP/CHF as well. In particular, 18 days for GBP/USD translates to about an 85% probability, which is the highest among all monthly weather forecast data. From this, we can see that April tends to be a period when the pound tends to rise.
