Cryptocurrency Market Analysis [January 19]
Cryptocurrency Practical Investment Newsletter January 18
Dear subscribers
＊If you have topics you’d like covered in the newsletter or
questions, please contact us.
We will introduce some in the newsletter’s Q&A section.
Ranking of domestic and overseas exchanges I choose
is here↓↓
http://bitcoin-newstart.com/exchange-japan-bitcoin
I will be writing a series on cryptocurrency in FX攻略, a FX magazine.
If you could stop by a bookstore and read it, I would be grateful.
https://bitcoin-newstart.com/fxkoryaku
【Cryptocurrency Market Analysis】
The price fluctuations of cryptocurrencies since last week
(over the past week) are summarized as follows
Overview: current price (change from a week ago)
Bitcoin
3,750,000 yen (-6%)
Ethereum
128,000 yen (-3%)
Ripple 29 yen (-11%)
Polkadot 1,678 yen (72%)
Binance Coin 4,636 yen (4%)
Cardano 38 yen (20%)
NEM 23 yen (-2%)
＊Details on stock-picking of crypto assets and trading timing
will be provided in a separate article at the bottom of this newsletter.
【 Won 5th place in Mag Magazine Grand Prize】
In 2020, the major newsletter site
Mag、日本’s Mag magazine Grand Prize was announced
and we were able to win.
（Reference） 2020 Mag cryptocurrency newsletter won 5th place in the Asset Management category!!
https://bitcoin-newstart.com/2020magmag
【Outlook for Cryptocurrency Market in 2021】
I contributed a forecast for the 2021 cryptocurrency market on Money Voice
and its outlook.
https://www.mag2.com/p/money/1001574
Bitcoin rose from last week’s 3.6 million yen
to briefly reach 4 million yen after a price surge
but then declined again and is undergoing a correction.
Bitcoin 4-hour chart
In the chart, the highs are being placed lower
and the lows are being placed higher, forming a symmetrical triangle
pattern,
and the price is converging around the current 3.75 million yen range,
so it is notable what direction it will move from here.
Red circles indicate major lows
and about that area
they are rising.
Even if prices drop again
as long as they do not break below the red-circled area, the
upward trend can still be considered ongoing.
【Partial rise of altcoins】
In this price range for Bitcoin, last week
some currencies such as Polkadot and AVAX
showed significant gains and drew attention.
Polkadot had conducted an ICO three years ago
for fundraising,
but the actual release was last year
in 2020. Since then it has rapidly increased its market cap
and entered the top 10.
From there, the price moved from 300 to 500 yen.
As for AVAX, the ICO began in August of this year
and it has been released this year
as well.
People who purchased at ICO prices are reportedly
already more than 20 times the price,
and attention is on how price will move with the unlocks in the future.
(Will it be sold upon unlock
or will it hold its ground?)
【Layer-2 Coins】
From the surge in Ethereum prices
fees for using Ethereum-based DeFi platforms remain high.
One mechanism to reduce these fees is Layer-2
solutions.
Recently, Layer-2-related tokens have risen
and it feels like a generational shift is occurring
across the crypto market.
In Japan, previously popular NEM and Ripple
have little price movement,
but tokens released in 2020
have shown twofold gains within a week.
Also, Polkadot, which we mentioned,
has already surpassed Ripple in market cap
and ranked 4th.
This could symbolize a generational shift,
in my view.
【Coincheck Commercials Resumed】
Coincheck’s commercials in Japan have resumed for the first time in three years.
The ads feature
“When you think Coincheck, you think Bitcoin,”
emphasizing Bitcoin.
was IOST.
The ad itself doesn’t name it, but buying demand followed
and it surged.
Some people claimed that Bitcoin is worth hundreds of thousands
yen, but IOST is only a few yen, so it’s easy to push up the price
for IOST.
However, it isn’t that cheap because it’s low-priced;
its market cap (trading volume) is low, making its price
easy to rise, but also quick to fall, which is a characteristic of IOST.
In Japan, the price rose rapidly due to domestic commercials
and investors from Japan poured in,
but
• There is no strong fundamental for IOST.
• Price gains are driven mostly by domestic funds.
• There is no significant participation from institutional investors.
Under these conditions, IOST trading can rise easily, but is also highly risky to fall.
Personally, as Coincheck says in its ads, it is important
to first focus on Bitcoin as the core investment.
What I think is most important is to start with Bitcoin as the main axis.
（Reference）
Coincheck CM resumes
https://bitcoin-newstart.com/coincheck-cm
（Reference）
Should you buy IOST during its price surge?
https://bitcoin-newstart.com/iost210115
