Kawasaki Dollaremon Style Currency Weather Forecast｜第13回 Introducing the Annual Anomaly of Exchange Rates [Kawasaki Dollaremon]

In FX, this series by Kawasaki Dollaremon emphasizes the temporal element. As a "Forex Weather Forecast," we will share concrete trading strategies from a statistical approach.

*This article is a reprint and revised edition of an article from FX Tactics.com February 2021 issue. Please note that the market information written in the main text may differ from current market conditions.

Kawasaki, Doruemon. Feeling the limits of discretionary trading, he sought a systematic trading method that could be profitable with minimal mental burden. After various simulations, he completed the Guruguru Train.

Blog：Kawasaki Dollaremon's FX Blog

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Exploring a Year of Market Seasonality!

Hello, I’m Kawasaki Dollaremon. Thanks to everyone, this series has reached its first anniversary. Thank you very much. This time, as a recap, I will introduce the tendencies and anomalies of the forex market over one year!

First, I will introduce the seasonality of forex in January. Even so, the forex market from January to March tends to be range-bound with no notable trends. Table ① (published for purchasers) counts the monthly candlestick up and down moves for all 30 currency pairs, and as you can see, there are no standout trends from January to March. However, for the Turkish lira/yen (an emerging market currency pair), there are more down months in January–February, and in March there are more up months for the Mexican peso/yen. From this, one can say that January–February tend to see declines in USD/TRY, and March tends to see rises in USD/MXN as seasonal tendencies.